Designatable Units for Status Assessment of Endangered Species

Abstract:  Species status assessment and the conservation of biological diversity may require defining units below the species level to portray probabilities of extinction accurately and to help set priorities for conservation efforts. What those units should be has been debated in the scientific literature largely in terms of evolutionarily significant units (ESUs), but this discourse has had little impact on government policy with regard to status assessment. As with species concepts, the variously proposed ESU concepts have not been resolvable into a single approach. The need for a practicable procedure to identify infraspecific entities for status assignment is the motivation behind employing designatable units (DUs). In aid of a policy to prevent elements of biodiversity from becoming extinct or extirpated, DUs are determined during the process of resolving a species' conservation status according to broadly applicable guidelines. The procedure asks whether putative DUs are distinguishable based on a reliably established taxonomy or a well-corroborated phylogeny, compelling evidence of genetic distinction, range disjunction, and/or biogeographic distinction as long as extinction probabilities also differ. The language of the DU approach avoids wording that implies value judgments concerning evolutionary importance or significance. Because species conservation status assessment is not science but, rather, the use of science to further policy, DUs contribute to a precautionary approach to listing whereby status may be assessed even though knowledge of systematic relationships below the species level may be lacking or unresolved. The pragmatic approach of using DUs has been adopted by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada for status assessment of species under the Canadian Species at Risk Act.     

Market responses to hurricanes

This paper uses one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the US, Andrew in 1992, to define a quasi-random experiment that permits estimation of the responses of housing values to information about new hurricanes. Lee County, Florida did not experience damage from Andrew. The storm was a “near-miss.” We hypothesize that Andrew conveyed risk information to homeowners in the county. A difference-in-differences (DND) framework identifies the effect of this information on property values in areas likely to experience significant storm damage. The DND findings indicate at least a 19 percent decline in property values.     

Effects of predation risk and hunger on the behaviour of two species of tadpoles

Predation and hunger are threats for most organisms, and appropriate behavioural responses to both factors should be shaped by natural selection. In combination, however, the behavioural demands of predation avoidance and effective foraging often cannot be satisfied at the same time and lead to a conflict within organisms. We examined the behavioural responses of two closely-related species of tadpoles, Rana lessonae and R. esculenta, to simulated predation by fish and hunger. Tadpoles, hatched and reared in the laboratory, were tested in a three-way factorial (predation risk × hunger × species) experiment with four predation levels and four hunger levels. Both species decreased their swimming activity with increasing predation risk. Predation risk did not influence the amount of activity time invested in feeding but caused the tadpoles to spend less time in patches with food. Refuges were not used to avoid predation. R. esculenta was more sensitive to predation risk than R. lessonae. Hunger increased both the activity of tadpoles and the amount of activity time invested in feeding, thus indicating an increased energy intake. No interactions were observed between predation risk and hunger. These results show that tadpoles possess genetically-based behavioural mechanisms that allow them to respond in a graded manner to predation and hunger. However, they did not balance the two conflicting demands of predation avoidance and effective foraging; the two mechanisms appeared to act independently. Correspondence to: R.D. Semlitsch     

Using the expert model PERPEST to translate measured and predicted pesticide exposure data into ecological risks

An important topic in the registration of pesticides and the interpretation of monitoring data is the estimation of the consequences of a certain concentration of a pesticide for the ecology of aquatic ecosystems. Solving these problems requires predictions of the expected response of the ecosystem to chemical stress. Up until now, a dominant approach to come up with such a prediction is the use of simulation models or safety factors. The disadvantage of the use of safety factors is a crude method that does not provide any insight into the concentration–response relationships at the ecosystem level. On the other hand, simulation models also have serious drawbacks like that they are often very complex, lack transparency, their implementation is expensive and there may be a compilation of errors, due to uncertainties in parameters and processes. In this paper, we present the expert model prediction of the ecological risks of pesticides (PERPEST) that overcomes these problems. It predicts the effects of a given concentration of a pesticide based on the outcome of already performed experiments using experimental ecosystems. This has the great advantage that the outcome is more realistic. The paper especially discusses how this model can be used to translate measured and predicted concentrations of pesticides into ecological risks, by taking data on measured and predicted concentrations of atrazine as an example. It is argued that this model can be of great use to evaluate the outcome of chemical monitoring programmes (e.g. performed in the light of the Water Framework Directive) and can even be used to evaluate the effects of mixtures.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.     

生态毒理基因组学——后基因组时代生态毒理学的新领域

基因组学、蛋白组学和代谢组学技术为生态毒理学的发展提供了生物高通量的技术手段,构成了新的交叉学科——生态毒理基因组学.生态毒理基因组学着重研究环境毒物暴露下非靶生物基因和蛋白的表达,能够在基因组水平上更深入地理解环境污染物的致毒机制,同时,它引进生物标志物为生态风险评价提供了平台.论文对生态毒理基因组学的发展历程、技术支持、模式生物及其在生态风险评价方面的应用进行了综述,以推动生态毒理基因组学技术在我国的进一步发展.     

Possible causes and consequences of philopatry and breeding dispersal in red-backed shrikes <Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Lanius collurio</Emphasis>

Studies of animal breeding dispersal have often focused on possible causes, whereas its adaptive significance has received less attention. Using an information-theoretic approach, we assessed predictions of four hypotheses relating to causes and consequences of breeding dispersal in a migratory passerine, the red-backed shrike Lanius collurio. As predicted by the reproductive performance hypothesis, probability of breeding dispersal in females (though not in males) decreased with increasing annual average number of fledglings produced in the past year, but there was no association with conspecific reproductive performance in either sex. The site choice hypothesis, stating that individuals disperse to improve breeding site quality, received support in males only, as dispersal probability was positively associated to a measure indicating low territory quality. The social constraints hypothesis, referring to dispersal in relation to intraspecific interactions, received little support in either sex. The predation risk hypothesis was hardly supported either. Consequences of dispersal were marginal in both sexes because neither fledgling production in females, nor territory quality in males improved after dispersal. In addition, males settled on territories closer to the forest edge than those occupied predispersal, which is opposite to the prediction of the predation risk hypothesis. We conclude that own reproductive success was the major factor determining dispersal behavior in females, whereas territory quality and possibly predation risk were most important in males. Overall, breeding dispersal appeared not to be adaptive in this dense population inhabiting an optimal habitat.     

Temporal dynamics of arsenic uptake and distribution: food and water risks in the Bengal basin

Abstract

Contaminated food chain is a serious contender for arsenic (As) uptake around the globe. In Nadia, West Bengal, we trace possible means of transfer of As from multiple sources reaching different trophic levels, and associated seasonal variability leading to chronic As uptake. This work considers possible sources-pathways of As transfer through food chain in rural community. Arsenic concentration in groundwater, soil, rice, and vegetable-samples collected detected in different harvest seasons of 2014 and 2016. Arsenic level in shallow groundwater samples ranged from 0.1 to 354?µg/L, with 75% of the sites above the prescribed limit by WHO (10?µg/L) during the boro harvest season. High soil As content (～20.6?mg/kg), resulted in accumulation of As in food crops. A positive correlation in As conc. with increase over period in all sites indicating gradual As accumulation in topsoil. Unpolished rice samples showed high As content (～1.75?mg/kg), polishing reduced 80% of As. Among vegetables, the plant family Poaceae with high irrigation requirements and Solanaceae retaining high moisture, have the highest levels of As. Contaminated animal fodder (Poaceae) and turf water for cattle are shown to contaminate milk (0.06 to 0.24?µg/L) and behoves strategies, practices to minimize As exposure.     

Fecundity as a Basis for Risk Assessment of Nonindigenous Freshwater Molluscs

Abstract:  The most efficient way to reduce future damages from nonindigenous species is to prevent the introduction of harmful species. Although ecologists have long sought to predict the identity of such species, recent methodological advances promise success where previous attempts failed. We applied recently developed risk assessment approaches to nonindigenous freshwater molluscs at two geographic scales: the Laurentian Great Lakes basin and the 48 contiguous states of the United States. We used data on natural history and biogeography to discriminate between established freshwater molluscs that are benign and those that constitute nuisances (i.e., cause environmental and/or economic damage). Two statistical techniques, logistic regression and categorical tree analysis, showed that nuisance status was positively associated with fecundity. Other aspects of natural history and biogeography did not significantly affect likelihood of becoming a nuisance. We then used the derived statistical models to predict the chance that 15 mollusc species not yet in natural ecosystems would cause damage if they become established. We also tested whether time since establishment is related to the likelihood that nonindigenous mollusc species in the Great Lakes and United States would cause negative impacts. No significant relationship was evident at the U.S. scale, but recently established molluscs within the Great Lakes were more likely to cause negative impacts. This may reflect changing environmental conditions, changing patterns of trade, or may be an indication of "invasional meltdown." Our quantitative analyses could be extended to other taxa and ecosystems and offer a number of improvements over the qualitative risk assessments currently used by U.S. (and other) government agencies.     

Incorporating the Effects of Socioeconomic Uncertainty into Priority Setting for Conservation Investment

Abstract:  Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.