模糊综合评价方法在舰船机舱消防安全管理中的应用

舰船机舱消防安全管理在舰船安全管理中占有极重要的地位。该文根据模糊数学的思想和方法,建立了舰船机舱消防安全模糊综合评价方法,用层次分析法全面分析了影响舰船机舱消防安全的各种因素,结合实例说明利用专家经验、观点与统计数字对模糊因素加以量化处理的过程和方法。结果表明,模糊综合评价方法适用于舰船机舱消防安全的综合评价,并使机舱消防安全管理更加科学,有助于提高机舱消防安全管理水平。     

基于事故树和模糊层次分析法的飞机火灾事故分析

为了解决飞机火灾事故易发问题、降低事故发生率,以巡航过程中客机发生火灾事故为情境,提出事故树分析法和模糊层次分析法相结合的研究方法。绘制树形图研究人为、机械、环境和管理等方面导致飞机火灾事故发生的途径,构建飞机火灾事故指标体系,结构重要度对指标赋值得出权重值顺序,结果表明:安检和安全培训对飞机火灾事故发生影响最大,空气影响次之,机械故障影响最小。因此,最有效的飞机火灾事故预防途径应从可燃物控制方面着手。     

Assessing spatial uncertainty of the Portuguese fire risk through direct sequential simulation

Forest fires have a significant economic, social, and environmental impact in Portugal. For that its fire risk was assessed through Bayes Formalism, where the main component of the risk of fire was assessed by the conditional probability of fire I(u,t) given a class of the daily severity rating (DSR) for a specific period of time—P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)]. The evaluation of this a posterior probability, P[I(u,t)|R(u,t)], was based on the update of marginal local probability of fire in each chosen region u (Durão, 2006).DSR values were used to calculate fire's risk, taking into account historical data, I(s,t), in a given region s, and also to define DSR's local thresholds in order to have P [I(u,t)|R(u,t)] ≥ 0.65.In this paper we characterize these posterior probabilities using direct sequential simulation models (DSS models) to obtain the spatial distribution of these probabilities over the entire Portugal, in order to assess the risk of fire and associated spatial uncertainty. Local probability density functions (pdfs) and spatial uncertainty are evaluated by a set of equiprobable simulated images of these posterior probabilities.Results are presented and discussed for the Portuguese fire seasons of the 2-year period, 2003-2004. The conditional probabilities reproduced reasonably well what was officially published for the studied fire seasons. We expect that a better understanding of both spatial and temporal patterns of fire in Portugal together with uncertainty measures constitutes an important tool for managers, helping to improve the effectiveness of fire prevention, detection and fire fighting resources allocation in critical social and environmental areas.     

Effects of a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture on the explosion and flame propagation behaviors of methane in air

This work aimed to experimentally evaluate the effects of a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture on the explosion characteristics of methane in air and report the results of an experimental study on explosion pressure measurement in closed vessel deflagration for a carbon monoxide-dominant gas mixture over its entire flammable range. Experiments were performed in a 20-L spherical explosion tank with a quartz glass window 110 mm in diameter using an electric spark (1 J) as the ignition source. All experiments were conducted at room temperature and at ambient pressure, with a relative humidity ranging from 52 to 73%. The peak explosion pressure (P_max), maximum pressure rise rate ((dp/dt)_max), and gas deflagration index (K_G) were observed and analyzed. The flame propagation behavior in the initial stage was recorded using a high-speed camera. The spherical outward flame front was determined on the basis of a canny method, from which the maximum flame propagation speed (S_n) was calculated. The results indicated that the existence of the mixture had a significant effect on the flame propagation of CH₄-air and increased its explosion risk. As the volume fraction of the mixed gas increases, the P_max, (dp/dt)_max, K_G and S_n of the fuel-lean CH₄-air mixture (7% CH₄-air mixture) increase nonlinearly. In contrast, addition of the mixed gas negatively affected the fuel-rich mixture (11% CH₄-air mixture), exhibiting a decreasing trend. Under stoichiometric conditions (9.5% CH₄-air mixture), the mixed gas slightly lowered P_max, (dp/dt)_max, K_G, and S_n. The P_max of CH₄-air mixtures at volume fractions of 7%, 9.5%, and 11% were 5.4, 6.9, and 6.8 bar, respectively. The S_n of CH₄-air mixtures at volume fractions of 7%, 9.5%, and 11% were 1.2 m/s, 2.0 m/s, and 1.8 m/s, respectively. The outcome of the study is comprehensive data that quantify the dependency of explosion severity parameters on the gas concentration. In the storage and transportation of flammable gases, the information is required to quantify the potential severity of an explosion, design vessels able to withstand an explosion and design explosion safety measures for installations handling this gas.     

正确实施火场紧急避险的几点思考

火场安全问题始终是完成森林灭火任务的重中之重，党和国家对此高度重视。从发生危险的环境和原因入手，提出了有针对性的避险方法，以及装备改进、理论研究和训练演练等方面应该加强的技术措施，对做好扑火安全工作具有一定的指导意义。     

化学品事故应急响应中危害距离的确定

介绍了不同国家、机构确定的毒性物质、易燃易爆物质紧急暴露限值和化学品事故中危害距离的确定方法，并以液氯钢瓶泄漏事故说明毒性危害距离的确定，以天然气管线泄漏火灾、爆炸事故说明火灾爆炸事故危害距离的确定。     

火灾场景中玻璃破裂行为研究综述

建筑物在火场中的结构响应问题中,门窗玻璃在火场中的热响应特性及破裂脱落是影响火灾发展的重要因素之一。通过事故案例分析了火灾场景中玻璃破裂脱落的危害性,指出了研究火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂脱落的意义,并对目前火灾场景中玻璃受热破裂过程和主要形态、玻璃的破裂机理和判据等的研究现状进行了详细的分析,总结了目前实验和计算机模拟的最新研究进展和不足,为今后进一步开展玻璃受热破裂脱落研究提出了若干建议。     

厦门市某区域消防站布局规划优化

依据火灾风险评估方法，对厦门市某区域建立区域火灾风险评估指标体系，运用层次分析法（AHP）进行火灾风险等级评定，依托LINGO软件对该区域内的消防站布局规划进行优化，将原来规划的9个消防站优化为7个，并最终应用于该区域的消防规划工作，促进了消防资源的合理配置，提高了消防资金投入的使用效能。     

高炉喷吹用潞安贫瘦煤爆炸下限与返回火焰长度的试验研究

该试验通过测定爆炸下限与返回火焰长度这两个参数来确定4种煤粉的爆炸性。爆炸下限指能使喷入一定装置中的粉尘云点燃并维持火焰传播的最小粉尘浓度,是确定粉尘爆炸性重要参数,试验室通常使用20L的爆炸装置进行测定。喷吹现场广泛采用长管式煤粉爆炸性测试仪检测煤尘引燃后产生的返回火焰长度,该长度随煤粉爆炸性的强弱而显著变化:返回火焰长度大于600 mm可认定该煤粉具有强爆炸性;在400~600 mm之间则煤粉具有中强度爆炸性;小于400 mm则煤粉具有弱爆炸性。结果表明:20 L球测得4种煤粉的爆炸下限在60~85 g/m3之间;长管式煤粉爆炸性测定仪测得4种煤粉的返回火焰长度在20~50 mm之间。由测定的返回火焰长度可知,试验所用的4种煤样均属于弱爆炸性煤种。     

油库消防自动控制系统的设计

提出了一套合理可靠的油库消防自动控制系统的设计方案，介绍了设计过程及应注意的问题。