典型三床RTO设备燃爆危险性数值模拟研究*

为研究苯、甲苯、二甲苯混合废气在三床蓄热式废气焚烧炉内部的燃烧过程,基于FLUENT软件建立典型的三床蓄热式废气焚烧炉的物理模型和数值模型,重点分析进气风量和混合可燃气体-空气摩尔占比对其内部压力变化规律的影响,以期可为其安全设计提供借鉴。研究结果表明:燃烧室内的温度变化与燃烧速度变化保持一致,可通过监测RTO燃烧室内的温度来定性评估气体燃烧速度,随着进气风量的增加,混合废气燃烧速度先升高后下降后再升高;从能源损耗和安全生产2个方面综合考虑,得出RTO运行的最佳进气风量为15 000 m3/h到30 000 m3/h,最佳的混合可燃气体-空气摩尔占比为0.15~0.2,这与RTO实际工况相符合,解释RTO装置内废气积聚导致爆炸事故的原因,燃烧过程中压力出现2次峰值超压,实际生产中需在2个时间节点多加防范。     

高温高湿巷道内不稳定换热系数影响因素分析及模型建立*

为研究高温高湿巷道不稳定换热系数的变化规律,采用Fluent软件对高温高湿巷道内的热湿交换进行数值模拟,通过单因素和正交模拟实验探讨风流温度、风流速度、岩石导热系数、原岩温度以及巷道当量直径对高温高湿巷道不稳定换热系数的影响。研究结果表明:高温高湿巷道不稳定换热系数随时间的变化规律与普通巷道一致,均与通风时间呈负相关,但通风时间为1 a的高温高湿巷道不稳定换热系数较普通巷道增加了12.5%。通过单因素分析得到风流速度、岩石导热系数和当量直径与不稳定换热系数呈正相关。通过极差分析得到各因素对不稳定换热系数的影响程度为:岩石导热系数>当量直径>风流速度>风流温度>原岩温度。利用SPSS软件对正交实验数据进行拟合,建立不稳定换热系数的计算模型,拟为高温高湿巷道内热负荷计算及井下风温预测提供参考。     

上软下硬地层深基坑结构变形监测及分析*

为探究在上软下硬地层中进行深基坑开挖时围护结构水平位移与内支撑轴力的变化规律,以广州地区某上软下硬地层盾构井深基坑开挖项目为依托,基于现场监测数据进行分析并运用MIDAS/GTS软件开展深基坑开挖全过程的有限元模拟。将围护结构水平位移模拟值与监测值进行对比,验证模型的准确性;改变围护结构嵌固深度、主体结构厚度等工况,研究上述因素对结构水平位移变化产生的影响。研究结果表明:实测围护结构最大水平位移值11.78 mm,位于长边0.7倍基坑深度附近,坑角处位移值最小;改变结构嵌固深度对坑深15 m以下围护结构位移值影响较大,本工程最佳嵌固深度为1.5~3 m;围护结构水平位移会随着结构主体厚度的增加而减小,但最大位移间差值逐渐减小,结构主体厚度设计值宜为0.8~1 m。     

面向设计的地铁车站防火安全韧性评价*

为提升地铁车站防火安全韧性,以设计方案为切入视角,基于防火安全韧性的吸收、抵抗、恢复和适应能力4个维度,构建基于ANP-熵权法面向设计的地铁防火安全韧性评价指标体系,运用逼近理想解法建立地铁车站防火安全韧性设计评价模型,通过3个已建地铁车站（青岛、沈阳、福州某地铁车站）的设计案例验证该模型的有效性和可行性。研究结果表明:3个应用案例中,沈阳某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最高,福州某地铁车站设计防火安全韧性最低,需进一步提升防火安全能力。评价结果与各案例的实际运行阶段基本吻合,研究思路和结果对改善地铁车站的防火安全设计具有一定参考意义。     

城市火险预警等级中的火灾次数分布模拟

本文根据对南京市多年火灾次数的分析，提出可利用泊松分布对不同火险预警等级中的火灾次数进行模拟的设想，从而使城市火险预警的内容得到进一步扩展。     

影响中国近地面g -HCH浓度和沉积量的贡献源评估

采用CanMETOP模型,模拟了2005年欧洲(去除前苏联所占区域)、印度、中国和前苏联4个主要的g-HCH土壤残留区域的g-HCH通过挥发、大气传输和沉积对中国环境的影响.结果表明,中国东部和西部地区近地面的年均浓度分别为10~100pg/m3和1~10pg/m3.中国本地源对东中部和东北部的浓度贡献在90%以上,对东南部地区的贡献为30%~80%,印度源对该地区的贡献为10%~30%;印度源对西部的近地面浓度贡献在50%以上;欧洲源和前苏联源主要影响西北地区,贡献比例均在10%左右.中国本地源对东北区域的总沉积贡献最大(75%),西北区域和南部区域的总沉积均以印度源贡献为主,贡献比例分别为63%和67%.整个中国,年总沉积量为691t,贡献比例依次为印度源(55.1%),中国源(31.6%),欧洲源(3.6%),前苏联源(2.5%).     

A multi-agent simulation to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in southern France

A multi-agent simulation (MAS) was developed to assess the risk of malaria re-emergence in the Camargue in southern France, a non-endemic area where mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles (Culicidae) live. The contact rate between people and potential malaria vectors, or the human biting rate, is one of the key factor to predict the risk of re-emergence of malaria, would the parasite be introduced in the region. Our model (called MALCAM) represents the different agents that could influence malaria transmission in the Camargue – people, mosquitoes, animal hosts and the landscape – in a spatially explicit environment. The model simulates spatial and temporal variations in human biting rate at the landscape scale. These variations depend on the distribution of people and potential vectors, their behaviour and their interactions. A land use/cover map was used as a cellular-spatial support for the movements of and interactions between mobile agents. The model was tested for its sensitivity to variations in parameter values, and for the agreement between field observations and model predictions. The MALCAM model provides a tool to better understand the interactions between the multiple agents of the disease transmission system, and the land use and land cover factors that control the spatial heterogeneity in these interactions. It allows testing hypotheses and scenarios related to disease dynamics by varying the value of exogenous biological, geographical, or human factors. This application of agent-based modelling to a human vector-borne disease can be adapted to different diseases and regions.     

Conservation Threats Due to Human-Caused Increases in Fire Frequency in Mediterranean-Climate Ecosystems

Periodic wildfire is an important natural process in Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, but increasing fire recurrence threatens the fragile ecology of these regions. Because most fires are human-caused, we investigated how human population patterns affect fire frequency. Prior research in California suggests the relationship between population density and fire frequency is not linear. There are few human ignitions in areas with low population density, so fire frequency is low. As population density increases, human ignitions and fire frequency also increase, but beyond a density threshold, the relationship becomes negative as fuels become sparser and fire suppression resources are concentrated. We tested whether this hypothesis also applies to the other Mediterranean-climate ecosystems of the world. We used global satellite databases of population, fire activity, and land cover to evaluate the spatial relationship between humans and fire in the world's five Mediterranean-climate ecosystems. Both the mean and median population densities were consistently and substantially higher in areas with than without fire, but fire again peaked at intermediate population densities, which suggests that the spatial relationship is complex and nonlinear. Some land-cover types burned more frequently than expected, but no systematic differences were observed across the five regions. The consistent association between higher population densities and fire suggests that regardless of differences between land-cover types, natural fire regimes, or overall population, the presence of people in Mediterranean-climate regions strongly affects the frequency of fires; thus, population growth in areas now sparsely settled presents a conservation concern. Considering the sensitivity of plant species to repeated burning and the global conservation significance of Mediterranean-climate ecosystems, conservation planning needs to consider the human influence on fire frequency. Fine-scale spatial analysis of relationships between people and fire may help identify areas where increases in fire frequency will threaten ecologically valuable areas.     

Large eddy simulation of plume dispersion behind an aircraft in the take-off phase

The aim of this paper is to provide an investigation, using large eddy simulation, into plume dispersion behind an aircraft in co-flowing take-off conditions. Validation studies of the computational model were presented by Aloysius and Wrobel (Environ Model Softw 24:929–937, 2009) and a study of the flow and dispersion properties of a double-engine aircraft jet was presented by Aloysius et al. (EEC/SEE/2007/001, EUROCONTROL Experimental Centre, ), in which only the engine was modelled. In this paper, the complete geometry of a Boeing 737 is modelled and investigated. The current work represents a contribution towards a better understanding of the source dynamics behind an airplane jet engine during the take-off and landing phases. The information provided from these simulations will be useful for future improvements of existing dispersion models.     

一种新型旋风气幕式排风罩数值模拟研究

利用Fluent计算流体力学软件对新型旋风气幕式排风罩工作流场及有害物分布进行了数值模拟,并与传统排风罩进行了对比。结果表明:旋转射流屏蔽作用下的抽吸流场具有中部压力较低和提高抽吸能力的作用;新型旋风气幕式排风罩不仅能有效地控制有害物扩散,而且可以实现远距离捕集有害物及以较小的排风速度排放有害物。