Flood proneness and coping strategies: the experiences of two villages in Bangladesh

This paper explores peoples' indigenous survival strategies and assesses variations in people's ability to cope with floods in two flood‐prone villages in Bangladesh. It reveals that people continuously battle against flood vulnerability in accordance with their level of exposure and abilities, with varied strategies employed at different geophysical locations. The paper reports that people in an area with low flooding and with better socioeconomic circumstances are more likely to cope with impacts compared to people in areas with high and sudden flooding. Similarly, households' ability to cope varies depending on people's socioeconomic conditions, such as education, income and occupation. Although floods in Bangladesh generate socioeconomic misery and cause damage to the environment, health and infrastructure, people's indigenous coping strategies have helped them to reduce significantly their vulnerability. Such flood‐mitigating strategies should be well recognised and emphasised further via proper dissemination of information through an early‐warning system and subsequently external assistance.     

Health and social impacts of a flood disaster: responding to needs and implications for practice

Carlisle in northwest England suffered its worse floods for more than 180 years in 2005. A study, reported here, was undertaken to assess the health and social impacts of these floods via in‐depth, taped individual and focus‐group interviews with people whose homes had been flooded and with agency workers who helped them. Respondents spoke of physical health ailments, psychological stress, water health‐and‐safety issues related to the floods, and disputes with insurance and construction companies, which they felt had caused and exacerbated psychological health problems. Support workers also suffered from psychological stress. Furthermore, it was found that people had low expectations of a flood and were not prepared. The findings are presented in five sections covering flood risk awareness, water contamination issues, physical health, mental health, and impact on frontline support workers. The discussion focuses on the implications of the findings for policy and practice vis‐à‐vis psychological health provision, contamination issues, training and support for frontline support workers, matters relating to restoration, and preparation for flooding.     

火灾环境下多层建筑的人员疏散路径模型研究

针对公共路段人员交汇出现的疏散速度减缓问题,构建了一个多层建筑的人员疏散最优路径模型。该模型以优先满足疏散时间较长的楼层为前提,保证任意时刻任意路径的人员流量不为零,同时优先使最短路径达到人员流量饱和,在此基础上对其算法步骤进行了改进。最后结合实例进行验证,结果表明,本模型可以更加准确地预估疏散所需时间。     

全自动淋洗-智能蒸馏联合技术检测土壤中阳离子交换量

针对土壤中阳离子交换量检测国标方法的不足,介绍了一种全自动淋洗法结合自动智能一体化蒸馏的联合技术。通过对实际样品和6种土壤标样的比较实验,表明,淋洗时间设置为20 min、乙醇洗涤次数设置为4次、蒸馏液质量设置为130 g较佳,在该条件下,土壤标样及实际样品的相对标准偏差(0.87%~1.07%)远小于行业标准方法的标准偏差(3.87%~5.18%),方法准确度也均在保证值范围内。该方法自动化程度高、可操作性强且检测结果的准确度、精密度及重现性都符合标准规定,可满足大批量土壤样品分析要求。     

Land institution of China: overall framework,structural evolution,and regulation intensity

China’s land institution can be defined broadly or narrowly. By examining the broad definition of the land institution, we found that there were prerequisite, complementary, and substitutional relationships among the various systems. These relationships were verified through discussion of the structural evolution of each system. Based on these relationships, three methods for quantification were used to measure the regulation intensity and intra-provincial differences in each system among 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China in 2014. The statistics analysis shows that provinces used to pursue outstanding performances in land institution but few provinces could outperform the other provinces in all types of systems. The statistics results also indicate that the provinces which executed land institution earlier often hold significant advantages in institutional innovations but it is still not clear whether they can maintain the advantages. This study recommends that the Chinese government should improve the overall framework of regional land institution based on land systems’ relationships and evolutionary patterns. Furthermore, the government should optimize the spatial distribution of regional land institution based on the intra-provincial differences in land-regulation intensity.     

突发事件下多种信息交互传播的动力机制与调控策略

针对突发事件下多种信息共存情境中信息交互传播的调控问题,首先界定了该情境中“涌现→传播”过程的组成要素,建立了信息交互关系框架及其系统动力学模型;其次,通过设计和仿真基础情景,将仿真结果与案例进行对比,检验模型的模拟趋势与现实状况的一致性;最后,通过设计和仿真实验情景,考查决策者的关键可控因素对系统演化的影响。研究结果表明:官方渠道所发布信息的可信度、平均个体传播量及群体的立场认知水平,与相信和传播官方渠道信息的人数均正相关,而与相信和传播民间渠道信息的人数均负相关;对各群体数量演化影响的显著性而言,官方渠道信息的平均个体传播量最高,官方渠道信息的可信度次之,群体的立场认知水平较低。     

案例—数据集成驱动的CI抗灾能力评估指标选择

关键基础设施（CI）是维持社会大系统正常运行的重要组成部分,是复杂的网络巨系统,而CI抗灾能力评估指标需具有系统性、客观性和一致性。案例驱动与数据驱动在能力评估指标选择中各有优势,亦相互支持。依靠案例驱动,可以把握历史经验,引导CI抗灾能力评估的情景设计及全局指标选择改进;借助数据驱动,可以发现潜在的微观指标,通过数据分析引导抗灾能力评估微观指标体系改进与完善。集成这2种评估驱动方法,提出CI抗灾能力评估指标选择的案例-数据集成驱动框架,并结合用例验证评估方法的有效性。     

资源型城市环境规制的经济增长效应及其传导机制——基于创新补偿与产业结构升级的双重视角

对于中国多数资源型城市来说,改善生态环境与促进经济增长是当前面临的重要任务。一些研究认为治理环境污染可能加重"遵循成本",进而不利于经济增长;也有研究认为环境规制会通过"创新补偿"效应,增进当地产品竞争力,弥补企业成本负担并促进经济增长;此外,还有研究认为环境标准提高有助于区域产业结构升级,进而带动经济增长。为验证中国资源型城市环境规制对经济增长的影响及其传导机制,本文基于2004—2014年资源型城市数据,以样本城市GDP为被解释变量,以工业污染治理设备运行费用为解释变量,进行了面板数据实证分析,并观察了科技行业人员比重和第三产业比重的中介效应。结果显示:(1)资源型城市工业污染物治理对GDP总量和人均GDP的影响均显著为正;(2)在环境规制与GDP(或人均GDP)的正向关系中,科技行业人员比重的提升起到了部分中介作用,即存在显著的创新补偿效应;(3)除了传统观点看到的创新补偿效应,污染治理对产业结构的积极影响也在二者正向关系中有重要的中介作用,而且比创新补偿效应的作用更显著。本文的结论是,资源型城市环境规制未对经济增长造成不利影响,主要是由于经济资源从效益不佳的工业企业流向了第三产业,同时工业部门自身的创新潜力也已逐步凸显。因此,面对经济社会持续发展的压力,资源型城市要取得经济增长与生态环境的双赢,应当强化污染治理成本对企业技术进步的倒逼机制,进一步实现创新驱动发展,同时要构建多元产业体系,促进资源型行业与现代服务业的有效对接和深度融合。     

基于云模型的太湖流域农村水环境承载力动态变化特征分析——以太湖流域镇江区域为例

农村水环境承载力的定量估算及其动态变化特征研究有助于了解农村地区水资源供需平衡和水环境质量状况,为新农村建设规划和水环境可持续发展提供科学依据。本文以太湖流域镇江区域为研究对象,结合云模型改进模糊综合评价法,构建农村水环境承载力的PSR分析框架和评估指标体系,并结合雷达图、云模型发生器分析其动态变化特征及影响因素。结果表明:云模型能够较好地表征农村水环境承载力的变化特征;农村水环境承载力对太湖流域镇江区域的工农业废水排放、供水总量和治水投入的要求更高;2010~2014年太湖流域镇江区域农村水环境承载力基本保持稳中上升的趋势,但总体处于弱承载状态,且丹阳丹徒润州京口。     

山地农业种植结构演变特征及其调控途径分析——以贵州省为例

为分析山地农业种植结构的演变特征及其主要驱动因子,制定种植结构的调控途径,采用C-PCA耦合模型(典型主成分分析)对贵州省1949~2013年种植结构演变的15个驱动因子进行分析。结果表明:(1)贵州省1949~2013年种植结构逐渐向市场导向型转变,经济作物比重上升,粮食作物比重下降,粮食作物和经济作物产量分别以7.24%和2.95%的速率增长;(2)通过C-PCA耦合模型的贡献率得出种植结构演变的主要驱动因子为总人口、城市化水平、仓储运输业比重、年均气温、年降水量和农业人口比重,其对应累计贡献率达86.04%;(3)调控山地农业种植结构,不仅需要发展山地高效复合型农业,提高种植系统抗灾能力,还需借助农产品生产、加工、销售云平台实现农业的可持续发展,从而为山地农业经济的发展提供重要支撑。