热带气旋影响下的电网应急案例框架构建研究

在我国电网防灾抗灾体系中,因风灾等自然灾害影响具有持续性,造成应急准备阶段对灾害演变过程认知不足而引发响应阶段抢修故障。热带气旋是导致电网破坏严重的自然灾害之一,近些年发生率高于以往同期。风灾是阶段变化的,情景又是动态演变的。针对热带气旋的影响,考虑其不同影响阶段构建应急案例,可在应急响应行动过程,有效准确的面对风灾特性而带来的抢修故障。提出电网风灾的案例框架构建方法,并结合风灾的特点进行框架分类,可有效应对灾害的不确定性从而增加案例可用度。同时对风灾案例库建设、抗台演习演练与实际应对三种目的下的案例进行属性约简,依热带气旋演变,将案例个体拆分化采取逐步多次检索生成可行预案,从而提高响应效率。     

盘式曝气器的结构优化设计

盘式曝气器是目前城市污水处理厂主要采用的曝气设备之一。但目前盘式曝气器存在充氧能力低、阻力损失大、使用寿命短等技术问题，增加了城市污水处理厂运行成本，降低了运行效能。针对这些问题，对盘式曝气器进行了结构优化设计。通过结构优化，既改善了曝气器的抗撕裂性和自闭性，同时叉提高了充氧能力，降低了曝气阻力损失。     

浅谈石油化工企业应急预案编制

应急预案是迅速、有序、有效地开展应急救援行动的保障。提出了石油化工企业应急预案的框架结构,并对预案编制过程中的难点进行了分析。     

地铁盾构施工负环管片安全拆除条件及实例研究

盾构始发是盾构工法的重要施工工序之一,也是盾构施工中最容易发生事故的环节,关系到盾构隧道能否顺利掘进与及时贯通。以北京地铁为例研究了地铁盾构施工负环管片安全拆除条件问题,采用FLAC3D进行了三维模型计算分析,分析了负环管片的位移及反力架应力变化情况,实测了盾构始发段的土压力、注浆压力、盾构推力、负环管片位移、反力架应力变化规律;通过数值计算与实际监测结果的比较,给出了负环管片及反力架的安全拆除条件建议。结果表明:当负环管片的相对位移变化量趋近于零、反力架应力值基本趋于稳定时,隧道衬砌管片环与壁厚注浆及围岩之间的摩擦力足以平衡盾构推力,方能拆除负环管片与反力架。数值分析与实测结果相吻合,说明数值计算模型合理,结果可靠。     

宿迁市教育大厦消能减震设计研究

对地处地震高烈度区的宿迁市教育大厦进行了消能减震设计。采用消能减震支撑框架结构体系代替传统的框架—抗震墙结构体系,进行了结构非线性时程分析,对消能装置的数量及布置进行了优化。分析结果表明,消能减震支撑框架结构在多遇地震作用下的层间位移能满足《建筑抗震设计规范》要求,在罕遇地震作用下具有更高的安全储备,表现出良好的抗震性能,可为高烈度区类似结构的设计提供借鉴。     

Reconciling multiple counterfactuals when evaluating biodiversity conservation impact in social-ecological systems

When evaluating the impact of a biodiversity conservation intervention, a counterfactual is typically needed. Counterfactuals are possible alternative system trajectories in the absence of an intervention. Comparing observed outcomes against the chosen counterfactual allows the impact (change attributable to the intervention) to be determined. Because counterfactuals by definition never occur, they must be estimated. Sometimes, there may be many plausible counterfactuals, including various drivers of biodiversity change and defined on a range of spatial or temporal scales. Here, we posit that, by definition, conservation interventions always take place in social-ecological systems (SES) (i.e., ecological systems integrated with human actors). Evaluating the impact of an intervention in an SES, therefore, means taking into account the counterfactuals assumed by different human actors. Use of different counterfactuals by different actors will give rise to perceived differences in the impacts of interventions, which may lead to disagreement about its success or the effectiveness of the underlying approach. Despite that there are biophysical biodiversity trends, it is often true that no single counterfactual is definitively the right one for conservation assessment, so multiple evaluations of intervention efficacy could be considered justifiable. Therefore, we propose calculating the sum of perceived differences, which captures the range of impact estimates associated with different actors in a given SES. The sum of perceived differences gives some indication of how closely actors in an SES agree on the impacts of an intervention. We applied the concept of perceived differences to a set of global, national, and regional case studies (e.g., global realization of Aichi Target 11 for marine protected areas, effect of biodiversity offsetting on vegetation condition in Australia, and influence of conservation measures on an endangered ungulate in Central Asia). We explored approaches for minimizing the sum, including a combination of negotiation and structured decision making, careful alignment of expectations on scope and measurement, and explicit recognition of any intractable differences between stakeholders.     

中国杀虫剂类POPs生命周期评价方法框架研究

确定了中国杀虫剂类POPs生命周期评价方法框架,指出评价方法中的难点在于对人体毒性潜力和生态毒性潜力的计算,并提出了基于杀虫剂类POPs特点的改进方法。     

方钢管混凝土框架加固后的非线性有限元分析——受低周反复荷载作用

建立了加固后损伤方钢管混凝土框架的三维非线性有限元分析模型，用以研究该框架在低周反复荷载作用下的抗震性能。该模型考虑了钢与混凝土的黏滑作用。通过与损伤方钢管混凝土框架加固后的结构在低周反复荷载作用下滞回曲线和刚度退化曲线的对比表明，计算结果较为精确，该模型可以应用于方钢管混凝土框架的结构分析中。同时由试验和有限元分析计算的结果可知，损伤方钢管混凝土框架结构加固后，具有较好的抗震性能。     

Three reasons to use annual payments in contingent valuation surveys: Convergent validity,discount rates,and mental accounting

We present three arguments for using ongoing annual payments in contingent valuation (CV) surveys that estimate the benefit of a long-lasting environmental improvement. First, by matching the duration of the payments with the duration of the environmental benefits, survey respondents are spared from performing complicated present value calculations. Second, willingness to pay (WTP) estimates from CV surveys that include ongoing annual payments best match WTP estimates obtained using travel cost surveys. Third, respondents are less likely to face binding mental budget constraints with ongoing annual payments than with a larger one-time payment. In addition, respondents’ discount rates may be estimated by collecting non-hypothetical, individual time preference data as part of the valuation survey.     

海上溢油事故应急反应系统框架的研究

本文初步给出了海上溢油事故应急反应系统的总体框架，并介绍了海上溢油事故应急反应系统的五个组成部分及各组成部分的主要功能：溢油信息收集子系统、溢油模拟子系统、环境与资源信息数据库、溢油应急指挥中心、溢油应急处理子系统。该溢油事故应急反应系统具有功能综合、结合GIS和RS、决策支持等特点，可为建立海上溢油事故应急反应系统提供参考。