HEAVY RAINFALL DISTRIBUTIONS BY SEASON IN LOUISIANA: SYNOPTIC INTERPRETATIONS AND QUANTILE ESTIMATES1

ABSTRACT: In most studies, quantile estimates of extreme 24-hour rainfall are given in annual probabilities. The probability of experiencing an excessive storm event, however, differs throughout the year. As a result, this paper explored the differences between heavy rainfall distributions by season in Louisiana. It was concluded by using the Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests that the distribution of heavy rainfall events differs significantly between particular seasons at the sites near the Gulf Coast. Furthermore, seasonal frequency curves varied dramatically at the four sites examined. Mixed distributions within these data were not found to be problematic, but the mechanisms that produced the events were found to change seasonally. Extreme heavy rainfall events in winter and spring were primarily generated by frontal weather systems, while summer and fall events had high proportions of events produced by tropical disturbances and airmass (free-convective) conditions.     

岷江上游大沟流域驱动植被退化的人为干扰体研究

研究了岷江上游大沟流域内的人为干扰体,分析了干扰的类型、强度、频率及其时空变化特征,揭示了不同干扰类型及其特性对植被退化的作用、干扰体与人口增长、植被退化等的关系．结果表明：大沟流域人为干扰类型多达８种,但优势的干扰类型是砍伐薪材和牲畜放牧．从近３０ａ的干扰强度变化看,以８０年代初的干扰强度最大,并在近２０ａ内保持很高的干扰强度水平;干扰强度的年内变化表现为春末、夏、秋大而冬、早春小．近４０ａ来的干扰频率愈趋增高,年内表现为春秋季干扰频率最高,夏季中等,而冬季最小．人为干扰的空间差异十分明显,反映出人为干扰的现状及其对植被的破坏强度差异,即由村寨向沟尾和高海拔区、由近及远、由低到高,形成“钟形”干扰格局．认为大沟流域植被的严重退化是所有人为干扰长期共同驱动的结果,与该区人口及其需求迅速增长密切相关．结果还表明,不同性质的干扰对植被的影响作用具协同性,同一干扰体长期连续对植被的影响具累加和放大的作用     

高压输电线路的工频电磁场对环境的影响分析及对策建议

依据《500kV超高压送变电工程电磁辐射环境影响评价技术规范》（HJ/T24-1998）中的预测模式,分析不同技术参数对输电线路周围环境工频电磁场强度的影响,并有针对性地提出减少输电线路对周围环境影响的环境保护措施及优化输电线路的架设方式。     

Selection of failure frequency and its impact on risk assessment – A case study from plot plan optimisation

Facility Siting is an important phase of project development. A critical stage is plot plan optimisation, where significant potential hazards are eliminated due to equipment spacing. In addition to ensuring appropriate compliance with minimum spacing requirements, occupied building studies to achieve compliance with the requirements of API 752 and API 753 could also be undertaken to optimise safety outcomes. The studies are done in three stages, where the first stage is hazard identification, second stage is consequence assessment and the third stage is risk assessment. Third stage assessments are only carried, if the consequence based siting recommendations are not practical to implement.This paper presents the challenges in estimating risk due to process hazards with a focus on selecting right event likelihood data. A comparison is presented on the variation in predicted risk levels based on equipment failure rates and leak frequencies.Case study of a plot plan optimisation study is undertaken with DNVGL Phast Risk and the variation in risk levels up to two orders of magnitude are recorded. Challenges such as adaption of data for local conditions, consistent definitions of failure, sample size of data, applicability of data play a significant role in identifying and correctly quantifying the risk levels. Such challenges and its impact on risk quantification are presented in this paper as well as its impact on facility siting.     

天然气引射调峰系统的噪声形成及其治理研究

采用天然气引射调峰技术,能使上海某储配站10台天然气高压球罐的储气调峰能率提高68%,大大有助于解决天然气用气高峰时的供需平衡问题,并能节约初投资人民币1亿元.但使用超音速引射器后,当球罐压力下降到某一值时会产生高频噪声,影响管束区操作环境.本文分析了噪声产生的原因,提出了合理的噪声治理方案,并进行了方案的实施.实践证明:噪声治理效果良好,降低了管束区噪声污染,达到了国家"工业企业噪声卫生标准".     

化肥厂爆炸事故的不安全动作分析

为了分析化肥厂爆炸事故背后的不安全动作。本文选取了2009-2018年间国内外发生的52起典型化肥厂爆炸事故。从发生时间的角度分析事故特性,发现白昼期间的事故发生概率相对较高。同时文章分析了运输卸料、车间操作、特种作业和管理人员4种作业类型的不安全动作,从发生频率和风险等级两个方面评估了不安全动作的综合危险度。结果表明13项不安全动作的综合危险度较高,需要重点预控。     

横向风对浮力扩散火焰的振荡影响研究

火焰振荡频率是火灾科学研究领域的一个重要基本参数,对横向风下火焰振荡频率的研究可以为火灾图像探测的参数设置提供理论依据。针对浮力扩散火焰(0.6×10~(-5)弗洛德数Fr2×10~(-2),10~2理查德森数Ri10~5),本研究将横向风条件下火焰结构假设为倾斜的柱状,通过对燃烧产生的浮力和横向风产生的拖曳力进行动力学分析,得出横向风条件下火焰振荡频率表达公式。结合实验结果得出,火焰振荡频率的理论值和实验值均随拖曳系数的增大(即外界风速的增加)而增大,但实验值的上升趋势较理论值平缓.这是因为公式忽略了风速对火焰温度和系数K的影响。     

河南省汛期极端降水事件分析

利用河南1961～2006年50个气象站台站汛期（6～8月份）逐日降水量资料，定义95%降水分位数为极端降水事件的阈值，建立不同站近46年汛期极端降水事件发生频次的时间序列。在此基础上采用趋势分析、最大熵谱分析等统计技术方法，对河南降水事件发生频次的空间分布及年际变化特点进行了分析。结果表明：空间变化上总体具有北多南少的特点，而且汛期降水量的比重与极端降水事件发生频次的高低存在着很好的一致性；空间分布上主要有全省一致型、西北 东南型、南阳盆地型和中部分布型等4种类型，其中全省一致分布型为最主要的空间模态；年际变化趋势各地有所不同，豫西、豫南区为减少趋势，而豫中、豫北、豫东和豫西南区表现为增加趋势，而且在振荡形态上各有同异，以2~8年和10年左右的年代际变化最为普遍。     

Severity of e-scooter rider injuries associated with trip characteristics

Introduction: E-scooter rider injuries have been growing, but little is known about how trip and incident characteristics contribute to their severity. Method: We enrolled 105 adults injured while riding e-scooters who presented to an emergency department in Washington, DC, during 2019. Enrolled participants completed an interview during the emergency department visit, and their charts were abstracted to document their injuries and treatment. Logistic regression examined the association of incident location and circumstances with the likelihood of sustaining an injury on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) ≥ 2, while controlling for rider characteristics. Results: The most common locations of e-scooter injuries in our study sample occurred on the sidewalk (58%) or road (23%). Accounting for other trip and rider attributes, e-scooter riders injured on the road were about twice as likely as those injured elsewhere to sustain AIS ≥ 2 injuries (RR, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.23–2.36) and those who rode at least weekly more often sustained AIS ≥ 2 injuries compared with less frequent riders (RR, 1.86; 95% CI, 1.11–2.32). Conclusions: Greater injury severity for riders injured on the road may reflect higher travel speeds. Practical applications: Injury severity associated with riding in the road is one factor that jurisdictions can consider when setting policy on where e-scooters should be encouraged to ride, but the risk of any crash or fall associated with facilities should also be examined. Although injuries are of lower severity on sidewalks, sharing sidewalks with slower moving pedestrians could potentially lead to more conflicts.     

具有变频器的矿井低压漏电保护研究

为了解决移动变电站低压侧为变频器供电时漏电保护装置误动的问题，提出了基于傅式算法的附加直流原理漏电保护新方法。通过理论分析和MATLAB/Simulink仿真，研究了具有变频器的矿井低压供电系统附加直流原理漏电保护，提出由傅式算法分解出采样电压直流分量以反映电缆绝缘水平的保护方法；同时分析了其他因素对直流分量的影响。研究结果表明:变频器对传统附加直流保护整定值有较大影响，易造成漏电保护装置误动且无法实现电缆的在线绝缘监测；所提出的直流分量法能准确测量电缆对地绝缘电阻，且可消除电缆分布电容、变频器载波频率、变频器输出频率等其他因素的干扰；采用该漏电保护方法，可承受变频器投入时对采样电压造成的较大冲击，不必在启动期间解除漏电保护装置，能够消除在此期间存在的人身触电安全隐患。