基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*

为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失,以化工多米诺事故为研究对象,探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法,梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程,并以1个天然气压气站为案例,验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明:该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。     

Emergency shutdown of fluidized bed reaction systems

With several industrial applications of fluidized bed technology recently commercialized worldwide, it becomes essential to develop safe operation methods for fluidized bed reaction systems (FBRSs) to prevent any influence on their process values, which lead to accidents. To preventing any disaster or malfunction in an FBRS, an emergency shutdown system (ESD) is initiated, closing the reaction system in case of any abnormality by effectively isolating the flammable gas. However, an ESD is also prone to the “inactivation problem,” in which in the case of failure it initiates the emergency shutdown, even when the operating conditions of the reaction system are abnormal. It is also vulnerable to a “malfunction problem,” where the emergency shutdown is performed even when the operating conditions of the reaction system are normal. In this study, these problems were solved by investigating a reaction system through the monitoring of appropriate parameters and setting up of trigger levels, which reflect the uniqueness of an FBRS using an ESD. The parameters were identified by analyzing the scenario leading to an accident. The trigger levels were determined as the points at which the loss is smaller in the presence of an ESD, as compared to the value of the loss function in the presence or absence of an ESD. Furthermore, the ESD design model was applied as a case study in the ammoxidation process of propylene. The results showed that an ESD can prevent an approximately 8 billion yen of loss due to accidents in plant operations, against an investment of 200 million yen.     

Assessing Spatial, Temporal, and Analytical Variation of Groundwater Chemistry in a Large Nuclear Complex, USA

Statistical analyses were applied at the Hanford Site, USA, to assess groundwater contamination problems that included (1) determining local backgrounds to ascertain whether a facility is affecting the groundwater quality and (2) determining a ‘pre-Hanford' groundwater background to allow formulation of background-based cleanup standards. The primary purpose of this paper is to extend the random effects models for (1) assessing the spatial, temporal, and analytical variability of groundwater background measurements; (2) demonstrating that the usual variance estimate s ², which ignores the variance components, is a biased estimator; (3) providing formulas for calculating the amount of bias; and (4) recommending monitoring strategies to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background concentrations. A case study is provided. Results indicate that (1) without considering spatial and temporal variability, there is a high probability of false positives, resulting in unnecessary remediation and/or monitoring expenses; (2) the most effective way to reduce the uncertainty in estimating the average background, and enhance the power of the statistical tests in general, is to increase the number of background wells; and (3) background for a specific constituent should be considered as a statistical distribution, not as a single value or threshold. The methods and the related analysis of variance tables discussed in this paper can be used as diagnostic tools in documenting the extent of inherent spatial and/or temporal variation and to help select an appropriate statistical method for testing purposes.     

异戊醇低压热解的同步辐射真空紫外光电离质谱研究

作为新兴生物燃料,大分子醇类燃料在低压下的火灾安全基础迫切需要得到深入研究。热解过程作为火灾过程的初始阶段直接控制着火过程,火灾中碳烟颗粒的产生也依赖于热解反应,因此可燃物的低压热解研究在其低压火灾基础研究中具有重要意义。利用同步辐射真空紫外光电离质谱方法研究了异戊醇在0.2atm下的流动反应器热解,探测到了20余种热解产物,包括烯丙基自由基和C_4H_8O、C_5H_8、C_6H_6等同分异构体,并测量了其摩尔分数。基于实验结果,对燃料分解路径和主要产物的生成及消耗路径进行了探讨。与本组之前正戊醇热解实验的对比表明,由于存在支链结构,异戊醇在热解中比正戊醇更容易产生戊烯、丁烯和丙烯,但更少地产生乙烯。此外,异戊醇在热解中能够生成更多的丙炔和丙二烯等环状化合物前驱体,令其苯和1,3-环戊二烯的生成量更高,表明异戊醇比正戊醇更易于生成多环芳烃和碳烟。     

UASB-FEO-氨吹脱-CASS工艺在垃圾渗滤液处理中的应用

针对垃圾渗滤液可生化性差、氨氮含量高等特点和国内处理工艺现状,采用UASB-FEO-氨吹脱-CASS工艺处理合肥市龙泉山城市垃圾填埋场垃圾渗滤液。介绍了工艺的重要构筑物及其设计参数。运行实践表明,整套装置运行平稳,出水水质满足设计要求。根据出水水质对该工艺进行技术分析以及运行结果的讨论,并与新发布的技术规范及排放标准进行对比分析。     

异波折板水解酸化-A~2O一体化反应器实验研究

设计了异波折板水解酸化-A2O一体化反应器,进行生活污水处理的实验研究。10个月的实验结果表明,系统的最佳水力停留时间(HRT)为8 h时,最适COD进水浓度为240~600 mg/L,最佳混合液回流比(r)-污泥回流比(R)为250%~100%。控制反应器于以上运行参数下,25±2℃所对应的COD、TN和TP去除率分别为96.84%、67.55%和81.92%。当温度降至7℃时,其COD、TP和TN分别降至86.35%、50.25%和65.68%。基于实验分析结果,阐明了一体化反应器高效性的机理在于异波折板水解酸化段具有高效传质特性和A2O段具有复合式活性污泥-接触氧化好氧池的特点。     

HRT对固定床厌氧反应器运行效果的影响

为了考察水力停留时间(HRT)对炭纤维载体固定床厌氧反应器运行效果的影响,在进水COD分别为20 000~25 000 mg/L和40 000~45 000 mg/L2个浓度范围下,研究了不同HRT对反应器运行效果的影响。结果表明,通过HRT的调整,在达到相同有机负荷(OLR)下,进水COD为20 000~25 000 mg/L的COD去除率和产气量,明显比进水COD为40 000~45 000 mg/L的运行效果好;进水COD为20 000~25 000 mg/L,HRT为14 h,相应的OLR为41.09 kgCOD/(m3.d)时,COD去除率仍然维持在68%以上,沼气容积产气率达到14.55 m3/(m3.d)。炭纤维载体固定床厌氧反应器具有较高的COD去除率、产气效率以及抵抗低pH、高负荷冲击的能力,运行过程中没有发生反应器堵塞的现象。     

厌氧氨氧化ASBR中亚硝氮和氨氮降解规律研究

采用生物膜ASBR反应器,研究了厌氧氨氧化反应过程中亚硝氮与氨氮降解速度的变化规律。结果表明,降解过程主要分为2个阶段:速度上升期(0~30 min)和速度下降期(30~150 min)。一阶指数衰减模型的模拟结果表明,20 min以后亚硝氮、氨氮降解速度逐渐减少,亚硝氮降解速度始终高于氨氮降解速度,但是两者差值随时间逐渐减少。     

生物法-人工湿地组合工艺处理小城镇混合污水研究

为适应小城镇污水处理高效、低耗、管理简单的要求,开展了生物法(水解酸化/生物接触氧化)-人工湿地组合工艺(A/BCO-CW)处理小城镇片区混合污水的研究。结果表明,A/BCO系统在停留时间为3～6 h条件下,对悬浮物和有机物有高的去除效率,COD、BOD5和TSS去除率分别达到63.1%、67.7%和66.2%,避免了人工湿地堵塞和提高处理效率,减少了所需湿地面积44%。全年运行结果表明,在0.30～0.59 m/d水力负荷率下,垂直流-表面流-水平潜流人工湿地组合系统对COD、BOD5和TSS平均去除负荷达9.4、5.1和7.2 g/(m2.d)(42%、71.2%和85.2%);COD、BOD5去除速率常数为74.6±12.1 m/y、166±30.5 m/y,这些数值均处于文献中k值范围的高量程内。A/BCO-人工湿地系统对COD、BOD5和TSS具有好的处理效果,出水水质能够稳定达到《地表水环境质量标准》(GB 3838-2002)的IV类水标准,2种处理方法有效组合起来,所开发的低成本、高效率、可持续运行的城镇废水处理组合系统,将会在实际应用尤其是高有机负荷污水处理中发挥良好效用。     

氧化镁烟气脱硫反应特性研究

利用实验室规模的鼓泡式反应装置,对比了碳酸钙、氧化镁和氧化镁/硫酸镁脱硫剂的反应活性,证实脱硫液中高浓度硫酸镁的存在是保证镁法脱硫效率高于钙法的重要因素,并考察了硫酸镁浓度、脱硫剂(氧化镁)浓度、烟气量、SO2浓度和吸收液温度等因素对脱硫效率的影响。结果表明,脱硫反应可以根据pH分为2个不同阶段;反应过程中脱硫效率随着硫酸镁浓度的增加而显著升高;烟气量增加将会导致脱硫效率有所下降;入口SO2浓度升高,脱硫效率下降;氧化镁浓度、温度对脱硫效率影响不显著。结合实验现象进行推断,氧化镁脱硫的反应过程受SO2在气液两相界面的传质扩散和其水解产物在液相的扩散控制。