基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型

针对建筑工程安全领域中许多对象具有"内涵明确,外延不明确"的特点,本文利用模糊数学对建筑安全事故影响因素进行度量,通过层次分析法确定各影响因素权重,提出了一种基于模糊评价法的建筑安全事故预测模型,解决了建筑生产中安全事故的即时预测,并通过实例给予说明,说明了模型在建筑安全事故预测中的有效性和实用性.     

基于FAHP的黄河中下游灾害系统脆性评价

首次将复杂系统的脆性引用到黄河灾害的研究中,并根据复杂系统的层次结构,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)对黄河中下游灾害系统进行了分析.由模糊层次分析法求得了灾害子系统的相对重要度排序向量,找出了极易使黄河中下游系统崩溃的脆性因素.结合黄河中下游的现状,通过对系统必要的脆性分析,为决策者提供重要的参考依据.     

混凝土简支梁设计基准期内的可靠度

根据统计资料对不同类型建筑在不同防火措施下发生火灾的概率研究,得出了各类建筑达到轰燃的概率.基于蒙特卡罗随机有限元方法,引入材料高温本构关系、截面尺寸和计算模型系数等的变异性,按照ISO标准升温曲线升温,给出了单构件轰燃下的失效概率计算方法.最后,将设计基准期内建筑物达到轰燃的概率与单构件轰燃下的失效概率组合,给出了设计基准期内建筑构件在火灾下的失效概率公式.     

茶粕有机肥的开发与利用

论述了生物有机肥在发展农业生产中的重要地位,以及生产中存在着的大量使用集约化畜禽养殖场的畜禽粪对土壤、水体等环境质量和农产品质量安全产生严重影响的问题,提出以茶粕作为原料生产有机肥具有生产过程相对安全、克服有机肥二次污染的优点.此外,茶叶次生代谢物茶多酚、茶色素、茶皂素和茶皂甙等具有抗氧化、清除自由基、络合金属离子、调节植物生长和生物防虫、灭虫等独特生理功效,将极大地提高茶粕有机肥的生物有效性,显示出其广阔的应用前景.     

Trait space of rare plants in a fire‐dependent ecosystem

The causes of species rarity are of critical concern because of the high extinction risk associated with rarity. Studies examining individual rare species have limited generality, whereas trait‐based approaches offer a means to identify functional causes of rarity that can be applied to communities with disparate species pools. Differences in functional traits between rare and common species may be indicative of the functional causes of species rarity and may therefore be useful in crafting species conservation strategies. However, there is a conspicuous lack of studies comparing the functional traits of rare species and co‐occurring common species. We measured 18 important functional traits for 19 rare and 134 common understory plant species from North Carolina's Sandhills region and compared their trait distributions to determine whether there are significant functional differences that may explain species rarity. Flowering, fire, and tissue‐chemistry traits differed significantly between rare and common, co‐occurring species. Differences in specific traits suggest that fire suppression has driven rarity in this system and that changes to the timing and severity of prescribed fire may improve conservation success. Our method provides a useful tool to prioritize conservation efforts in other systems based on the likelihood that rare species are functionally capable of persisting.     

Computing sustainable manufacturing index with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process

The growing industrial interest in adopting sustainability programmes has ushered in studies regarding sustainability indicators which have continually flourished in current literature. However, limited attention is given to the development of priority ranking, which is an important input for any adopting firm. This paper presents a hybrid multi-criteria approach in determining priority areas in sustainable manufacturing (SM). Using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to address uncertainty in hierarchical decision-making, this paper determines SM priority strategies and eventually identifies even lower level strategies. The computed sustainable manufacturing index is presented at both the organizational and operational levels for a real case study of an industrial plastic manufacturing firm. This work provides a detailed and transparent hierarchical decision-making approach based on SM framework, the use of which could be valuable to practicing managers across industries in their pursuit of greater sustainability.     

Fuzzy experts on recreational vessels, a risk modelling approach for marine invasions

Understanding risks from the human-mediated spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) is a critical component of marine biosecurity management programmes. Recreational boating is well-recognised as a NIS pathway, especially at a regional scale. Assessment of risks from this pathway is therefore desirable for coastal environments where recreational boating occurs. However, formal or quantitative risk assessment for the recreational vessel pathway is often hampered by lack of data, hence often relies on expert opinion. The use of expert opinion itself is sometimes limited by its inherent vagueness, which can be an important source of uncertainty that reduces the validity and applicability of the assessment. Fuzzy logic, specifically interval type-2 fuzzy logic, is able to model and propagate this type of uncertainty, and is a useful technique in risk assessment where expert opinion is relied upon. The present paper describes the implementation of a NIS fuzzy expert system (FES) for assessing the risk of invasion in marine environments via recreational vessels. The FES was based on expert opinion gathered through systematic elicitation exercises, designed to acknowledge important uncertainty sources (e.g., underspecificity and ambiguity). The FES, using interval type-2 fuzzy logic, calculated an invasion risk value (integrating NIS infection and detection probabilities) for a range of invasion scenarios. These scenarios were defined by all possible combinations of two vessel types (moored and trailered), five vessel components (hull, deck, internal spaces, anchor, fishing gear), two infection modes (fouling, water/sediment retention) and six frequently visited marine habitats (marina, mooring, farm, ramp, wharf, anchorage). Although invasion risk values determined using the FES approach was scenario-specific, general patterns were identified. Moored vessels consistently showed higher invasion risk values than trailered vessels. Invasion risk values were higher for anchorages, moorings and wharves. Similarly, hull-fouling was revealed as the highest infection risk mode after pooling results across all habitats. The NIS fuzzy expert system presented here appears as a valuable prioritising and decision-making tool for NIS research, prevention and control activities. Its easy implementation and wide applicability should encourage the development and application of this type of system as an integral part of biosecurity, and other environmental management plans.     

夏、冬季降雨中溶解性有机质(DOM)光谱特征及来源辨析

利用紫外-可见光谱与三维荧光光谱,结合拉格朗日混合单粒子轨道模型及火点图,研究了重庆2013年夏、冬两季雨水DOM光谱特征,并对其来源进行解析.结果表明,雨水DOM与水体、土壤DOM具有类似性质光谱特征,证明降雨DOM也是陆地及水环境中DOM地化特征的重要贡献者.雨水DOM中DOC含量为0.88~12.80 mg·L-1,CDOM含量在3.17~21.11m-1之间,夏、冬两季降雨DOM差异明显(P0.05).与夏季相比,冬季降雨DOM分子量较小,芳香性程度较低,腐殖化程度也更低,输入主要以本地和短距离输送为主;而夏季DOM来源较分散.尽管吸收和荧光光谱可用于解析雨水DOM组成和来源,但在光谱特征的解析和来源识别上与其他来源DOM有所区别,传统"内、外源区分"并不适用于雨水DOM.     

天津冬季一次重污染过程颗粒物中水溶性离子粒径分布特征

为研究天津冬季重污染天气过程中颗粒物水溶性离子的粒径谱分布及二次离子生成机制,于2014年1月利用Anderson撞击式分级采样器在中国气象局天津大气边界层观测站内采集颗粒物样品,并使用离子色谱仪分析Na~+、NH_4~+、K~+、Mg~(2+)、Ca~(2+)、Cl~-、NO_3~-、SO_4~(2-)等8种水溶性无机离子(TWSII).结果表明,采样期间PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)质量浓度均值分别为(138±100)μg·m~(-3)和(227±142)μg·m~(-3),粗、细粒子中TWSII的平均浓度分别为(34.07±6.16)μg·m~(-3)和(104.16±51.76)μg·m~(-3).细粒子中SO_4~(2-)、NO_3~-和NH_4~+这3种离子的浓度远高于其他离子,且相关性较好,粗粒子中NO_3~-、SO_4~(2-)、Cl~-浓度较高.随着污染程度加剧,细粒子中TWSII浓度增加明显,粗粒子中则变化不大.水溶性离子的粒径谱分布显示,SO_4~(2-)以单模态分布,优良天峰值出现在0.43~0.65μm,NO_3~-在优良日呈现三模态分布,峰值分别出现在0.43~0.65、2.1~3.3和5.8~9.0μm,NH_4~+呈双模态分布,优良日峰值出现在0.43~0.65μm和4.7~5.8μm,污染日3种二次离子峰值均以0.65~1.1μm的单模态分布为主,与三者之间的热动力平衡过程有关.细粒子中NH_4~+除与SO_4~(2-)和NO_3~-结合外,还与部分Cl~-结合,粗粒子中NH_4~+全部与NO_3~-和SO_4~(2-)结合后,剩余的NO_3~-和SO_4~(2-)与其他阳离子结合.     

西大海湖沉积物营养盐垂直分布特征变化分析

通过对西大海湖心柱状沉积岩芯有机质(OM)、总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)、磷形态和粒度指标的测试和分析,探讨其垂向分布特征及影响因素.结果表明,营养盐中OM、TN和TP的含量分别为0.633%~2.756%、0.150%~0.429%和648.00~1 480.67 mg·kg-1.Ca-P是TP的主要部分,占TP含量66.04%.1843~1970年间,Ca-P、IP、OM含量变化较小,Fe/Al-P、OP、TP、TN含量波动较大;1970~1996年间,Ca-P、IP、TP含量变化均呈减小趋势,Fe/Al-P、OP、OM含量不同程度上先减少后增加,TN波动较大;1996~2009年营养元素含量相对波动较大,Fe/Al-P、OP和OM的平均含量是3个阶段中最高的.西大海湖沉积岩芯营养元素污染来源以工业废水、生活污水和化肥农药的流失为主.沉积物中C/N比值显示有机质主要来源于水生生物.沉积物粒度组成以黏土和细粉砂为主.相关性研究表明,Ca-P、IP与TP均呈显著的正相关关系,表明Ca-P对IP、TP的增长贡献大.