国内外低碳产业园发展模式研究

通过分析国内外6个典型低碳产业园案例,归纳总结出再生利用型、清洁生产型、产业耦合型3种类型低碳产业园,横向对比分析3种类型低碳产业园的特点,纵向对比分析国内外低碳产业园的特色,在此基础上提出3种类型低碳产业园的发展模式。     

基于可拓物元模型的安全经济开采评价指标体系的构建及应用

首先根据安全经济开采的内涵,建立以人员安全、设施设备安全、开采环境安全、安全投资和安全管理为主要制约因素的安全经济开采评价模型,并运用改进的层次分析法确定人员可靠度对安全经济开采水平影响最大,开采环境可靠度影响最小。其次,采用函数拟合法、专家打分法、标准化打分法量化安全经济开采水平指标,并将安全经济开采水平划分为3个等级。最后,运用可拓物元模型方法,得出某铁矿安全经济开采水平为二级,无重大经济损失,与实际吻合。     

Variation in posture quality across musical instruments and its impact during performances

Objective. Bad posture increases the risk that a musician may suffer from musculoskeletal disorders. This study compared posture quality required by different instruments or families of instruments. Methods. Using an ad-hoc postural observation instrument embracing 11 postural variables, four experts evaluated the postures of 100 students attending a Spanish higher conservatory of music. Results. The agreement of the experts’ evaluations was statistically confirmed by a Cohen's κ value between 0.855 and 1.000 and a Kendall value between 0.709 and 1.000 (p?χ² tests revealed significant association between instrument families and seated posture with respect to pelvic attitude, dorsal curvature and head alignment in both sagittal and frontal planes. This analysis also showed an association between instrument families and standing posture with respect to the frontal plane of the axis of gravity, pelvic attitude, head alignment in the frontal plane, the sagittal plane of the shoulders and overall posture. Conclusions. While certain postural defects appear to be common to all families of instruments, others are more characteristic of some families than others. The instrument associated with the best posture quality was the bagpipe, followed by percussion and strings.     

Validation of a booted finite element model of the WIAMan ATD lower limb in component and whole-body vertical loading impacts with an assessment of the boot influence model on response

Objective: A novel anthropomorphic test device (ATD) representative of the 50th percentile male soldier is being developed to predict injuries to a vehicle occupant during an underbody blast (UBB). The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a finite element (FE) model of the ATD lower limb outfitted with a military combat boot and to insert the validated lower limb into a model of the full ATD and simulate vertical loading experiments.

Methods: A Belleville desert combat boot model was assigned contacts and material properties based on previous experiments. The boot model was fit to a previously developed model of the barefoot ATD. Validation was performed through 6 matched pair component tests conducted on the Vertically Accelerated Loads Transfer System (VALTS). The load transfer capabilities of the FE model were assessed along with the force-mitigating properties of the boot. The booted lower limb subassembly was then incorporated into a whole-body model of the ATD. Two whole-body VALTS experiments were simulated to evaluate lower limb performance in the whole body.

Results: The lower limb model accurately predicted axial loads measured at heel, tibia, and knee load cells during matched pair component tests. Forces in booted simulations were compared to unbooted simulations and an amount of mitigation similar to that of experiments was observed. In a whole-body loading environment, the model kinematics match those recorded in experiments. The shape and magnitude of experimental force–time curves were accurately predicted by the model. Correlation between the experiments and simulations was backed up by high objective rating scores for all experiments.

Conclusion: The booted lower limb model is accurate in its ability to articulate and transfer loads similar to the physical dummy in simulated underbody loading experiments. The performance of the model leads to the recommendation to use it appropriately as an alternative to costly ATD experiments.     

钻孔间距对水力压裂促抽煤层瓦斯的影响

针对定量确定合理钻孔间距困难问题,基于损伤力学和多场耦合理论,建立了水力压裂和瓦斯抽采的煤层流固耦合模型,包括和水运移场、应力场以及孔隙度、渗透率演化方程,并采用Comsol联合Matlab求解,研究了不同钻孔间距时压裂和抽采过程中煤层弹模、损伤值、渗透率、瓦斯压力、抽采量和压裂贯通时间的变化规律。结果表明:耦合模型可较准确地模拟煤层水力压裂和瓦斯抽采过程;压裂贯通时间与钻孔间距呈指数增长关系;在马堡煤矿,当钻孔间距为4~8 m时,压裂损伤区在抽采孔贯通,渗透率呈“n”型曲线,瓦斯抽采后,瓦斯压力迅速下降,抽采有效区随间距的增加而增大;当钻孔间距为9~12 m时,压裂损伤区未贯通,煤层渗透率呈“m”型曲线,抽采有效区随间距的增加而减小,与间距4~8 m相比,瓦斯抽采量较小。     

基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上,提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型,在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子,将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设,提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象,进行数据拟合和预测分析,其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据,并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数,检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面,改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级,曲线拟合度较高,预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

工作场所职业工效相关因素及其管理初探

为了探讨工作场所职业工效管理的基本策略和方法,在概述职业工效相关因素类别、相互关联及评价方法等基础上,提出基于职业病危害防治要求、风险管理理念和管理体系建设模式的职业工效不良因素干预管理的初步策略及实施要点。研究结果表明:工作场所职业工效相关因素包括个体特征、工艺设备及其布局、工作系统设计、作业环境、作业管理和社会心理因素等,不同因素间存在直接或间接的相互影响,并最终影响到微观层面劳动者职业活动的工效特点及宏观层面工作场所整体的职业工效特征;实施有效的职业工效管理,在于科学辨识、评估不良职业工效因素的基础上,进一步在职业病危害预防控制的不同阶段采取合理可行的管理方法进行干预,并持续改进。     

长江经济带高技术产业投入产出效率分析

提高长江经济带高技术产业的投入产出效率,有利于协调该区域经济发展与生态环境保护之间的关系。运用三阶段DEA方法,从企业类型、环境因素等视角对长江经济带高技术产业投入产出效率进行实证分析。结果发现,政府RD支出的增长对企业技术效率的提高均有正向作用,但作用效应尚未达到显著状态;研发机构数量的增加能够显著提高内资及港澳台企业的技术效率,而外资企业与中国技术市场的互动效应尚不显著;行业内企业数量增加所引致的市场竞争有利于外资企业提高技术效率,却显著降低了内资及港澳台企业的技术效率;不同类型企业之间和地区之间的技术效率存在较大差距,外资企业的技术效率和纯技术效率最高,内资企业的规模效率最高。文章最后提出政策建议。     

Relationship between cultivated land use functions and land rental behavior of rural households: empirical evidence from different dominant functional regions in central China

This paper analyzes the relationship between the cultivated land use functions and the land rental decisions of rural households in three Dominant Functional Zones of Hubei, China. The results indicate that 41.10% of the rural households in the study areas participated in the land rental market. The land rental market in the Key Development Zone has both a higher participation rate and land rent; the Agricultural Production Zone has a higher participation rate but a lower land rent; and the land rental market in the Key Ecological Zone is underdeveloped. The difference in regional function and economic level leads to a significant difference in the spatial variation of the cultivated land use multifunction. Overall, the cultivated land function of rural households has a significant impact on their land transfer behavior. The higher the Functions of Economic Contribution, Food Production, and Pension & Employment, the more willing the rural households are to rent in the land, while the higher the Function of Inheritance and Retainment of the cultivated land use, the more likely the peasants are to retain their cultivated land resources. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient is significantly higher in the Key Development Zone than in the Key Ecological Zone.     

Automated energy management in distributed electricity systems: An EEPOS approach

The increasing capacity of distributed electricity generation brings new challenges in maintaining a high security and quality of electricity supply. New techniques are required for grid support and power balance. The highest potential for these techniques is to be found on the part of the electricity distribution grid.

This article addresses this potential and presents the EEPOS project’s approach to the automated management of flexible electrical loads in neighborhoods. The management goals are (i) maximum utilization of distributed generation in the local grid, (ii) peak load shaving/congestion management, and (iii) reduction of electricity distribution losses. Contribution to the power balance is considered by applying two-tariff pricing for electricity.

The presented approach to energy management is tested in a hypothetical sensitivity analysis of a distribution feeder with 10 households and 10 photovoltaic (PV) plants with an average daily consumption of electricity of 4.54 kWh per household and a peak PV panel output of 0.38 kW per plant. Energy management shows efficient performance at relatively low capacities of flexible load. At a flexible load capacity of 2.5% (of the average daily electricity consumption), PV generation surplus is compensated by 34–100% depending on solar irradiance. Peak load is reduced by 30% on average. The article also presents the load shifting effect on electricity distribution losses and electricity costs for the grid user.