基于灰建模的瓦斯含量多变量预测模型研究

研究了GM(1,N)、GM(0,N)瓦斯含量预测模型的数学原理,收集郑煤集团告成矿地质勘探期间及生产期间的瓦斯含量实测资料,获得16个可靠点,选取基岩厚度、新生界厚度、煤层厚度、煤层水分、煤层灰分、50m顶板含砂率6个因素作灰色建模预测的指标,分别建立了GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量多变量预测模型。根据计算和评价结果,GM(1,6)和GM(0,6)瓦斯含量预测模型精度均能够满足工程精度的要求,说明利用灰色模型来预测瓦斯含量是可行的。由于前者精度略高于后者,故建议告成矿采用GM(1,6)模型来进行未知地区煤层瓦斯含量的预测。需要注意,由于模型没有考虑构造的影响,在实际预测时,还应根据构造对待预测区的影响关系和影响程度对模型的预测结果进行修正。     

HAN阻隔防爆模型研究

通过合理简化,利用多方气体状态方程,分别建立油品储运容器内可燃混合气体定容爆炸模型和装设阻隔防爆材料的油品储运容器内可燃混合气体爆炸模型,获得了阻隔防爆性能测试装置的燃爆容器抗爆设计限值,以及其在HAN阻隔防爆测试中燃爆容器试爆压力量级的控制下限值,同时,还给出HAN工程应用中容器留空率的计算方法,具有实际指导意义。     

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故演化的突变模型

煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故,从微观上看,是在瓦斯积聚、引火源和氧气浓度3个条件同时具备的情况下发生的,从宏观上看,是在生产活动中存在人的不安全行为和物的不安全状态导致了微观3条件的同时具备。笔者介绍了突变理论的基本原理;在轨迹交叉事故致因理论基础上,分析了瓦斯爆炸事故演化的非线性特征;建立了事故演化的尖点突变模型。并指出:事故演化是一个流变-突变过程,其突变的程度反映了事故的严重度;人的不安全行为是事故发生的主要因素;物的因素决定事故的严重度;安全生产必须建立本质安全型矿井,避免人和物的运动轨迹越过分歧点集。     

城市天然气管道风险特征与肯特法的改进

根据城市高压天然气管道特点,将适合于城市天然气管道风险分析的肯特评分法加以改进,包括调整评分项目和事故因素权重,使其成为适于城市天然气管道的风险分析法。将改进后的肯特评分法应用于常州21km高压天然气管道的风险评价,得出8个相对高风险管段,其分析结果可作为安全管理人员合理分配维护资源的理论依据。工程应用实例证明:改进后的肯特法具有较强的可行性,是城市高压天然气管道风险评估的有效工具。     

煤与瓦斯突出的物理模拟和数值模拟研究

利用自行设计的实验装置,通过现场采集具有突出倾向的煤样,分别向实验装置煤样中充入吸附能力较大的CO2和吸附能力较小的N2来模拟不同级别的煤与瓦斯突出现象,物理试验结果表明:瓦斯压力越大,突出强度越大;当瓦斯压力相近时,吸附和解吸能力大的瓦斯突出强度大。通过数值模拟对煤与瓦斯突出进行研究,数值模拟再现了煤矿开采过程中诱发的煤与瓦斯突出全过程,同时验证了煤与瓦斯突出是瓦斯压力、地应力及煤岩体的力学性质综合作用的结果,该验证对进一步深入理解认识煤与瓦斯突出的机理具有重要的理论和实践意义。     

突变级数法在采空区塌陷预测中的应用

基于突变级数理论,分析影响采空区稳定性的因素(包括采空区体积率、距地表的垂深、地质构造复杂程度、煤层倾角、覆盖层厚度、覆盖层类型等),研究采空区塌陷的预测方法.对各影响因素进行排序并确定各因素指标体系,得到各样本的突变级数,从而对采空区稳定性进行预测.实例验证表明,突变级数法的判断结果符合实际,与神经网络分级法的判断结果一致.可见,基于突变级数理论的采空区塌陷预测方法具有科学性和有效性.     

Individual risk analysis of high-pressure natural gas pipelines

Transmission pipelines carrying natural gas are not typically within secure industrial sites, but are routed across land out of the ownership of the pipeline company. If the natural gas is accidentally released and ignited, the hazard distance associated with these pipelines to people and property is known to range from under 20 m for a smaller pipeline at lower pressure to up to over 300 m for a larger pipeline at higher pressure. Therefore, pipeline operators and regulators must address the associated public safety issues.This paper focuses on a method to explicitly calculate the individual risk of a transmission pipeline carrying natural gas. The method is based on reasonable accident scenarios for route planning related to the pipeline's proximity to the surrounding buildings. The minimum proximity distances between the pipeline and buildings are based on the rupture of the pipeline, with the distances chosen to correspond to a radiation level of approximately 32 kW/m². In the design criteria for steel pipelines for high-pressure gas transmission (IGE/TD/1), the minimum building proximity distances for rural areas are located between individual risk values of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻⁶. Therefore, the risk from a natural gas transmission pipeline is low compared with risk at the building separated minimum distance from chemical industries.     

Damage to offshore oil and gas facilities following hurricanes Katrina and Rita: An overview

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit the centre of the American petrochemical industry, shutting down eight refineries, hundreds of oil-drilling and production platforms, and many other industrial facilities. Furthermore, it triggered unprecedented numbers of hazardous-materials releases from industrial facilities and storage terminals onshore, as well as from oil and gas production facilities offshore in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM). In this paper, we analyse the damage caused by the two hurricanes on the offshore oil and gas industry. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused the largest number of destroyed and damaged platforms and pipelines, and the highest number of mobile offshore drilling units set adrift in the history of GoM operations. Following the hurricanes, changes have been proposed to operating and emergency procedures, maintenance requirements, and design practices including mooring practices for mobile offshore drilling units.     

四氮唑废水处理工艺设计

高浓度、高盐分的四氮唑生产废水通过三效蒸发浓缩,馏出液经铁炭氧微电解和混凝预处理,再采用水解酸化一接触氧化一反应二沉主体组合工艺进行处理。研究了该工艺所需构筑物和设备的设计与选型。该工艺在正常运行条件下,处理后出水pH6～9,COD 302mg／L,BOD5 108mg／L,SS30mg／L,色度36倍,水质达到GB8978--1996（污水综合排放标准》三级标准。     

钯离子液相催化氧化低浓度磷化氢

采用Pd^2＋液相催化氧化低浓度PH3,考察了Pd^2＋浓度、O2体积分数、PH3质量浓度、混合气流量、反应温度等因素对Pd^2＋吸收液去除低浓度PH3效果的影响。实验结果表明,采用10mL Pd^2＋浓度为0．112mol／L的水溶液作为吸收液净化含低浓度PH3的混合气,在反应温度22℃、O2体积分数5％、PH3质量浓度850mg／m^3、混合气流量190mL／min的条件下,印min之内PH3去除率保持在90％以上。Pd^2＋浓度越高、O2体积分数越大、反应温度越高,PH3去除率越高;混合气流量越大,PH3去除率越低;反应温度越低、O2体积分数越大,PH3去除率的下降速率越小。