连续起伏管道投产过程中的气相运移研究*

为应对山区液体管道在投产过程中可能出现的气阻、超压问题,从气相运移角度出发,建立液顶气模型,研究在1个U型单元内积气形成、压缩和破碎的全过程,在此基础上,提出连接各个U型单元的气相的传递函数,探讨背压累积因素下,连续起伏管道投产过程中各个U型管段的积气情况和压力的变化,进行动态的建模和计算。以国内某原油管道的现场投产数据与模型结果进行比对。结果表明:可以更加准确地预测山区液体管道投产过程中的气相传递和压力变化过程,能为未来连续起伏大落差液体管道投产的安全稳定运行提供理论指导和技术支持。     

基于FLACS的LNG船舶泄漏爆炸过程数值模拟研究*

为研究大尺寸、全场景下LNG船舶卸货作业过程中的泄漏爆炸风险,构建某LNG接收站及其周边20.5 km2的区域场景模型,采用FLACS软件数值模拟LNG泄漏扩散、气云爆炸的演化过程。结果表明:LNG从卸料臂处以满输速率持续泄漏5 min,最大液池面积17 047 m2,最大汽化速率350 kg/m3,遇点火源发生气云爆炸,爆炸持续时间12 s,产生最高爆炸火球340 m和最大爆炸超压0.25 MPa,形成半径380 m轻伤区、150 m重伤区和60 m死亡区。     

温度交变下液态乙烷回气管线热应力数值计算与现场测试*

为解决低温交变载荷下液态乙烷回气管线面临的安全问题,采用有限元法和现场试验研究管线在低温交变载荷下无裂纹和含轴向裂纹管线的热应力分布。结果表明:管内温度沿周向和轴向分布具有较大的不均匀性,内外壁温度分布趋势基本相似;随着计算时间的延长,管线整体热应力先增大再减小;卸压、温度回升过程中,管内温差逐渐减小,热应力逐渐减小;裂纹处的热应力大于远离裂纹及无裂纹处的热应力;对管线热应力变化进行现场监测,试验数据与仿真结果吻合。研究结果可为低温情况下液态乙烷回气管线的方案设计提供参考和指导。     

Scenario derivation and consequence evaluation of dust explosion accident based on dynamic Bayesian network

In order to clarify the correlation between the evolution path of dust explosion accidents and emergency decision-making, and to accurately predict the disaster damage levels of various disaster bearing bodies. This paper extracts 56 key scenario elements from four aspects, namely state, answer, goal and environment, based on the analysis of typical dust explosion accident cases. At the same time, a general scenario evolution path of dust explosion accident is constructed. Using fuzzy number set theory and dynamic Bayes joint probability model, the accurate solution of scenario state probability was realized. With the help of accident cases and dynamic Bayes approach, the dust explosion consequence prediction index system and evaluation criteria were constructed, covering factors such as dust explosion intensity, casualties, direct economic losses, equipment damage, building damage, environmental damage and other factors. A polyethylene wax dust explosion accident in a city of China was used to verify the dust explosion accident scenario evolution model and consequences prediction model. The predicted results were in good agreement with the actual damage of various carriers of the accident, which indicated that the model could be used for dust explosion accident prediction and disaster loss prediction. The research results provided reference and technical support for the prediction of dust explosion accident evolution direction, emergency aid measures decision and deployment, disaster damage prediction and evaluation.     

基于电磁辐射峰谷比值法的煤与瓦斯突出预警

为了提高电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险的准确性,减少误报现象,在分析大量电磁辐射现场数据基础上,基于电磁辐射预警煤与瓦斯突出危险原理,提出了电磁辐射峰谷比值法,利用正态分布统计特征计算每个班次的电磁辐射瞬时强度峰值均值和谷值均值,并将其比值作为煤与瓦斯突出危险性的预警值。最后,将该方法应用于义忠煤矿11112风巷掘进工作面,研究结果表明:与临界值系数和动态变化趋势系数法相比,峰谷比值法误报较低,预警准确性高,能够很大程度上减少误报对生产的影响。     

Corrosion failure probability analysis of buried gas pipelines based on subset simulation

Corrosion is the main reason for the failure of buried gas pipelines. For effective corrosion failure probability analysis, the structural reliability theory was adopted in this study to establish two calculation models for pipeline corrosion failure: the pressure failure model and von Mises stress failure model. Then, two calculation models for the corrosion failure probability were established based on a corrosion depth growth model obtained from actual survey data of soil corrosion characteristics. In an example, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and subset simulation (SS) were used to analyze the corrosion failure probability of pipelines, and the results were compared. SS can compensate for the shortcomings of MCS as it has higher computational efficiency and accuracy. Therefore, SS was adopted to simulate variations in the corrosion failure probability of buried pipelines with the service time for the two failure probability calculation models, which were applied to a natural gas pipeline located in a chemical industry park in Zhuhai, China. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on the relevant parameters that affect the failure probability. The results showed that multiple loads caused by the covering soil, residual stress, temperature differential, and bending stress have a non-negligible effect on the pipeline reliability. The corrosion coefficients gradually become the most important factors that affect the failure probability with increased service time. The proposed methodology considers the actual operating conditions of pipelines to provide a reliable theoretical basis for integrity management.     

Pipeline leakage detection and isolation: An integrated approach of statistical and wavelet feature extraction with multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLPNN)

Leakage diagnosis of hydrocarbon pipelines can prevent environmental and financial losses. This work proposes a novel method that not only detects the occurrence of a leakage fault, but also suggests its location and severity. The OLGA software is employed to provide the pipeline inlet pressure and outlet flow rates as the training data for the Fault Detection and Isolation (FDI) system. The FDI system is comprised of a Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLPNN) classifier with various feature extraction methods including the statistical techniques, wavelet transform, and a fusion of both methods. Once different leakage scenarios are considered and the preprocessing methods are done, the proposed FDI system is applied to a 20-km pipeline in southern Iran (Goldkari-Binak pipeline) and a promising severity and location detectability (a correct classification rate of 92%) and a low False Alarm Rate (FAR) were achieved.     

油页岩含氧干馏工艺流程爆炸极限分析

根据干馏工艺流程配入适量氧气,可以降低载热气体需要预热的温度,以实现低能耗、易于工业生产的特点,设计了一套新型的有氧干馏工艺流程。有氧干馏工艺因其过程中存在可燃性混合物,有发生爆炸事故的可能性,通过实验对所收集的不同温度下的干馏气体的成分与含量进行了分析,结合爆炸极限理论,对该有氧干馏工艺流程的不同温度、不同惰性气体含量条件下可燃气体爆炸极限进行了分析计算。结果表明,可燃气体的浓度在整个反应升温过程中始终没有进入爆炸危险区域,说明该实验装置不具备爆炸危险性;对干馏工艺流程中氧气的输入量的控制,可以防止该工艺流程的火灾爆炸的发生。     

油库泵站可燃气体智能型安全检测系统

根据目前油库泵站内存在可燃气体经常泄漏的实际情况,提出并应用计算机信息处理系统解决可燃气体泄漏监控问题。     

北京市天然气公交车的发展现状及前景

随着石油资源短缺、城市空气污染问题的日益严重,天然气汽车作为一种实用的低排放汽车逐渐得到了重视和应用。本文首先通过汽车与能源、汽车与环境两个方面,分析说明了北京市发展天然气汽车的重要性;然后简要介绍了北京市天然气公交车的发展现状、未来几年的发展规划,最后指出了实现发展规划的条件和政策。