北京市空气质量及其与能源消费结构的动态关联

运用模糊集理论中的Euclidean权距离评价2002—2011年北京市空气质量。根据最大隶属度原则确定空气质量等级值,结合灰色系统理论中的关联动态矩阵分析法,研究北京市主要大气污染物与9种能源消费因子的动态关系。结果表明,2002、2004—2007年北京市空气质量处于Ⅲ级,2003、2008—2011年处于Ⅱ级,空气质量由劣到优的年份排序为2002、2011、2010、2006、2007、2009、2008、2005、2004、2003年,2003、2008年空气质量得到改善,2009年以来有所恶化;燃料油、焦炭和煤炭是造成北京市大气污染的前3位能源,天然气是最清洁的能源;同种能源与不同污染物的关联程度相似;同种能源与污染物在不同时间段的关联序基本不变,不同能源因子分别表现出"缓慢上升"、"逐渐升高"、"水平S"型和"倒U"型4种态势;燃料油与大气污染物"同增同减",大气污染物与燃料油正相关;天然气与大气污染物"此涨彼消",天然气与大气污染物负相关。     

重庆铜梁县空气质量历时演变与评价

以重庆市铜梁县为例,分析了西部小城镇空气质量的历时演变规律,并对小城镇空气质量进行了评价。结果表明,小城镇空气质量夏季优于冬季,NO2和O3年均浓度(分别为29~33、18~34μg/m3)有所增加,但均在《环境空气质量标准》(GB 3095—2012)标准值内,PM10和SO2的年均浓度则逐年下降,2012年年均浓度比2010年分别下降了34%和19%;PM10、SO2、NO2浓度与温度、风速呈显著负相关关系,与大气压、相对湿度呈显著正相关关系,O3浓度与温度、风速、气压、相对湿度的相关性则刚好与此相反。对铜梁县近3年空气质量状况的评价结果表明,铜梁县空气质量稳步提升,相对于2010年的空气质量状况来说,2012年空气质量等级为优和良的天数分别提高了5%和9%,空气质量等级为轻微污染的天数则降低了9%。研究结果可为小城镇空气质量的宏观调控提供参考。     

核电站温排水卫星遥感监测应用研究

选取我国 HJ－1 B卫星红外相机为遥感数据源,在介绍了温排水卫星遥感监测的技术流程和基本原理之后,重点论述了海表温度反演的算法和基准温度提取的基本原则。以2013年1月17日大亚湾核电站和2013年5月22日田湾核电站2景 HJ－1 B红外相机数据为应用实例,说明了卫星遥感监测可作为开展核电站温排水影响监测与热污染评价的首选技术方向和主要监测手段,阐述了其在核电站温排水影响后评估中的作用和意义。     

农药企业搬迁土地挥发性有机物风险评价

对常州某农药生产场地土壤中挥发性有机物(VOCs)污染状况以及健康风险和生态风险进行了调查评价。结果表明,该场地土壤中挥发性有机物污染以苯系物和卤代烃为主。苯系物质量浓度为0~56.6 mg/kg,卤代烃质量浓度为0~1.14 mg/kg。健康风险评价结果均在可接受范围内,而生态风险评价显示生产车间内的土壤VOCs生态风险较大,存在着对生物的危害。     

交通干道沿线土壤重金属监测与评估综述

公路运营所带来的铅、镉、锌等重金属污染物对人体健康安全存在着潜在和长期的影响。近年来,开展交通干道沿线重金属污染监测与评估工作已经成为环境监测工作的重要内容。从监测技术、评估方法、可能影响因素等几个方面对该领域的研究进展及成果进行了综述。采样段面的选取、点位的布设与样品的收集应该同时遵循全面性和代表性的原则。在同一交通干道内,均匀布置采样段面的同时可以尽量包含高车流量、中车流量与低车流量3种类型。考虑到重金属在横向距离上的分布规律,可以在0~100 m处设置密集采样点位,在100~300 m处设置适量采样点位。评估方法一般同时采用Kriging空间插值分析、污染指数分析、多元统计分析,生态风险评价与健康风险评价等多种分析方法。     

A Framework for Comprehensive,Integrated, Watershed Monitoring in New York City

The International Life SciencesInstitute (ILSI) Risk Science Institute (RSI) convenedan expert panel of scientists to developrecommendations for a comprehensive monitoring programfor the Croton and Catskill/Delaware watersheds, whichprovide drinking water to New York City's residents. This effort was conducted as part of efforts topreserve and enhance the quality of New York City'sreservoir system through a watershed protectionprogram. The panel developed recommendations for astrategic framework on which to construct a monitoringprogram. As part of this activity, the paneldetermined whether existing monitoring activities weredeficient and, where activities were deficient, thepanel developed recommendations for additionalinformation that should be collected.The panel recommended the development and use of anintegrated approach to watershed monitoring, whichdraws on modeling, risk-based planning and analysis,statistical sampling and design, and basic compliancemonitoring. The approach should be designed toprovide an assessment of natural and anthropogenicsources of stress to the system as well as anassessment of water quality trends in response tostresses acting in concert, both over the long termand over the five-year New York City Memorandum ofAgreement (MOA) assessment time frame. It should alsoprovide an assessment of the human health andenvironmental risks posed by a variety of stressors,and the impact of management actions implemented toameliorate stressors.     

Application of fuzzy sets and cognitive maps to incorporate social science scenarios in integrated assessment modelsA case study of urbanization in Ujung Pandang, Indonesia

Decision–support systems in the field of integrated water management could benefit considerably from social science knowledge, as many environmental changes are human-induced. Unfortunately the adequate incorporation of qualitative social science concepts in a quantitative modeling framework is not straightforward. The applicability of fuzzy set theory and fuzzy cognitive maps for the integration of qualitative scenarios in a decision–support system was examined for the urbanization of the coastal city of Ujung Pandang, Indonesia. The results indicate that both techniques are useful tools for the design of integrated models based on a combination of concepts from the natural and social sciences. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Models at the interface between science and society: impacts and options

Within the CLEAR project a new approach to integrated assessment modelling has been developed for the participatory integrated assessment of regional climate change involving citizens' focus groups. The climate change decision problem was structured by focusing separately on climate impacts and mitigation options. The attempt was made to link the different scales of the problem from the individual to the global level. The abstract topic of climate change was related to options on the level of a citizen's individual lifestyle. The option of a low energy society was emphasised in order to embed the climate change decision problem in a wider range of societal concerns. Special emphasis was given to the characterisation and communication of uncertainties. The chosen approach allows different kinds of uncertainties in one framework to be addressed. The paper concludes with a summary of the experience made, and recommendations for the use of models in participatory integrated assessments. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Long-Term Relationship between Phosphorus Inputs and Wetland Phosphorus Concentrations in a Northern Everglades Marsh

Assessments of long-term relationships between changes innutrient inputs and wetland nutrient concentrations can becomplicated by fluctuations in other environmental factors aswell as by problems typical of long-term monitoring data.Consequently, statistical analysisof these types of data sets requirescareful consideration of environmental covariates, potentialbiases in the monitoring design, and irregularities caused bychanges in field sampling protocols. We evaluated therelationship between anthropogenic phosphorus (P) inputs andwater-column total P (TP) concentrations in a northernEverglades marsh by statistically analyzing available datacollected from several sampling programs over the past 20 years(1978–1997). Canal inputs of agricultural runoff contributemost of the P to the marsh and have produced a zone ofenrichment within the marsh during the past few decades.Regression analyses showed that both canal and marsh TPconcentrations increased during the 1980s and then decreased inthe 1990s. However, the statistical relationship between canal Pinputs and marsh TP, while significant, generally was weakexcept for marsh locations adjacent to the canal. Strongerrelationships existed between marsh TP and hydrologic parameterssuch as marsh water depth, which is controlled by changes inweather patterns and marsh management. In particular, dryconditions during the 1980s may have contributed to observedincreases in marsh P concentrations and the movement of a P`front' further into the marsh. Higher rainfall and water depthsand agricultural best management programs initiated during the1990s have been associated with reduced P concentrations incanal waters entering the marsh. While it is anticipated thatthis reduction eventually will result in lower marsh TPconcentrations, this effect is not yet evident, possibly due tointernal loading of P from enriched marsh soils. Our findingsillustrate some of the environmental factors that can complicateattempts to develop empirical relationships between P inputs andwetland P concentrations and to use such relationships to forecast changesin marsh concentrations based on past monitoring data alone.     

城市空气质量综合评价的可拓方法

可拓方法是从定性和定量两个角度去处理现实世界中矛盾问题的一种新方法 ,它能较完整地反映事物的综合质量水平。本文介绍了可拓评价方法的基本原理 ,并探讨了该方法在城市空气质量综合评价中的应用 ,结果表明是合理可行的