基于风险分析的城市防灾减灾规划编制——以地震规划为例

为减轻城市灾害损失,提出城市防灾减灾规划编制方法,将减灾规划分为准备、风险分析、编制和实施4个步骤。依据风险分析结果,制订防灾减灾规划目标、减灾措施及策略。给出典型的地震灾害风险分析方法。以某市为例,算出其各区域的地震风险。根据风险等级划分标准确定各区域的地震风险可接受水平。基于此结果在GIS平台上的表达,可知市内旧城区的地震风险很高,须立刻采取风险减缓措施。对减灾措施进行优化,结果表明:加快现有设防不足工程的抗震加固,严抓新建工程的抗震设防水准是提高该市抗震减震能力的关键。     

Beijing's coordinated development of population,resources, environment,and economy

Since the Olympic Games will be held in Beijing at 2008, the urban development plan of Beijing deserves special attention. The essence of regional sustainable development is that population (P), resources (R), environment (E) and economy (E) could develop with sustenance, order and coordination during a certain period, which forms a complex system called the PREE complex system. For this system, a multi-objective integrated model is formulated and solved by a nonlinear goal programming technique. Beijing's PREE complex system is then used as an empirical study. Twelve interesting goals are carefully selected, the parameters of each goal function were estimated by using Beijing's 50-year (1949–1999) statistical data, and their ideal goal limits for 2000 and 2005 are chosen according to the 9th and 10th Five-Year Economic Development Plans of Beijing. The results showed that population size is the most sensitive element in Beijing's PREE complex system. Furthermore, some suggestions related to public policies about the urban development of Beijing are proposed.     

中国能源分区情景分析及可持续发展功能定位

论文在综合运用基于IPAT方程的情景分析法,借助ArcGIS空间分析技术的基础上,初步构建了中国能源可持续发展分区技术,基于该技术开展了中国能源分区及可持续发展功能定位研究。得到以下结论:①持续到21世纪中叶,能源消费仍集中分布于中国东部沿海地区,而能源供给则集中分布在"三北"(东北、华北与西北)地区;②中国能源对外依存度最高的区域集中分布于东部沿海京津冀、长三角与珠三角地区,具体包括上海、浙江、北京、江苏、广东与海南,而能源对外依存度最小的省份则主要分布于"三北"地区;③按能源可持续利用情况把中国划分为五大区,即能源强不可持续区(I)、能源不可持续区(II)、能源弱可持续区(III)、能源可持续区(IV)与能源强可持续区(V)。最大幅度地挖掘能源资源潜力,实现能源资源的本地化、多元化及来源的多元化是强输入区(I区)、次强输入区(II区)实现能源可持续发展的必然选择;不断提升可再生能源对非可再生能源的替代力度,优化能源结构是自给自足区(III区)的核心所在;作为周边区域能源安全缓冲区是次强输出区(IV区)的主要职责;作为国家能源安全保障区和能源基地是强输出区(V区)的功能所在。     

A comparative analysis of methods to represent uncertainty in estimating the cost of constructing wastewater treatment plants

Prediction of construction cost of wastewater treatment facilities could be influential for the economic feasibility of various levels of water pollution control programs. However, construction cost estimation is difficult to precisely evaluate in an uncertain environment and measured quantities are always burdened with different types of cost structures. Therefore, an understanding of the previous development of wastewater treatment plants and of the related construction cost structures of those facilities becomes essential for dealing with an effective regional water pollution control program. But deviations between the observed values and the estimated values are supposed to be due to measurement errors only in the conventional regression models. The inherent uncertainties of the underlying cost structure, where the human estimation is influential, are rarely explored. This paper is designed to recast a well-known problem of construction cost estimation for both domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants via a comparative framework. Comparisons were made for three technologies of regression analyses, including the conventional least squares regression method, the fuzzy linear regression method, and the newly derived fuzzy goal regression method. The case study, incorporating a complete database with 48 domestic wastewater treatment plants and 29 industrial wastewater treatment plants being collected in Taiwan, implements such a cost estimation procedure in an uncertain environment. Given that the fuzzy structure in regression estimation may account for the inherent human complexity in cost estimation, the fuzzy goal regression method does exhibit more robust results in terms of some criteria. Moderate economy of scale exists in constructing both the domestic and industrial wastewater treatment plants. Findings indicate that the optimal size of a domestic wastewater treatment plant is approximately equivalent to 15,000 m3/day (CMD) and higher in Taiwan. Yet the optimal size of an industrial wastewater treatment plant could fall in between 6000 CMD and 20,000 CMD.     

我国安全工程本科专业培养方案之比较分析

基于比较的视角对我国安全工程本科专业的培养方案从培养目标、培养模式、课程结构3个方面进行分析,发现其中存在的问题有:专业设置单一,涉及面窄;培养目标雷同,难以凸显办学特色;课程离散性大,人本位课程缺失;开设院校单一,集中在工程类院校。提出改进和完善培养方案的建议:在涉及安全问题较多的领域设置安全专业,设置更多的安全类本科专业;培养目标要多元化,以满足不同行业、领域对安全科技人才的需求;规范安全工程本科专业,降低课程的离散度;加强安全思维与意识训练等人本位课程的开设,真正实现安全问题的核心是人的安全,主张培养综合能力型(通用型)的安全科技人才;在综合性高校开设安全类专业、安全类课程、安全类选修课程。     

Regulatory focus as a mediator in goal orientation and performance relationships

Chosen goals influence the outcomes a person achieves as well as the behaviors performed to achieve those outcomes. In this study, we propose that three forms of goal orientation: learning, performance‐prove, and performance‐avoid, (VandeWalle, 1997 ) relate to performance, with learning and performance‐prove relating to performance through regulatory foci of prevention and promotion, respectively. Regulatory focus, a type of self‐regulation, entails the implementation of specific strategies in pursuit of goals and thus gives us insight to how a person pursues a chosen goal. In a combination of laboratory and field studies, we examine the role of regulatory focus as a mediator between goal orientation and task performance. We find evidence that regulatory focus strategies differentially mediate the goal orientation/task performance relationship. Theoretical ramifications for these relationships, as well as practical implications, are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Balancing making a difference with making a living in the conservation sector

Goals play important roles in people's lives because they focus attention, mobilize effort, and sustain motivation. Understanding conservationists’ satisfaction with goal progress may provide insights into real-world environmental trends and flag risks to their well-being and motivation. We asked 2694 conservationists working globally how satisfied they were with progress toward goals important to them. We then explored how this satisfaction varied among groups, including demographic and occupational. Finally, we looked at respondents' experiences associated with goal-progress satisfaction. Many (94.0%) indicated that making a meaningful contribution to conservation was an important goal for them, and over half were satisfied or very satisfied in this area (52.5%). However, respondents were generally dissatisfied with progress on collective conservation goals (e.g., stopping species loss). Some groups were more likely to report dissatisfaction than others. For instance, those in conservation for longer tended to be less satisfied with collective goal progress (log odds –0.21, 95% credibility interval [CI] –0.32 to –0.10), but practitioners reported greater satisfaction (log odds 0.38, 95% CI 0.15–0.60). Likewise, those who were more optimistic in life (log odds 0.24, 95% CI 0.17–0.32), male (log odds 0.25, 95% CI 0.10–0.41), and working in conservation practice (log odds 0.25, 95% CI 0.08–0.43) reported greater satisfaction with individual goal progress. Free-text responses suggested widespread dissatisfaction with livelihood goals, particularly related to job security and adequate compensation. Although contributing to conservation appeared to be a source of satisfaction, slow goal progress in other areas––particularly around making a living––looked to be a source of distress and demotivation. Employers, funders, professional societies, and others should consider ways to help those in the sector make a difference while making a satisfactory living by, for example, prioritizing conservationists′ well-being when allocating funding. This support could include avoiding exploitative practices, fostering supportive work environments, and celebrating positive outcomes.     

生态功能区建设中政府行为的价值取向和评判标准

生态功能区建设中的政府行为,不仅涉及发展困境与生态环境保护间矛盾的协调问题,更涉及维护经济社会和资源的可持续发展等问题。因此,生态功能区建设中政府行为需要确立以发展生态经济为核心、以强化生态服务为根本、以塑造生态文化为基础、以构建生态制度为保障和以维护生态安全为目标的价值取向,并从合法性、合理性、效益性和发展性等四个方面的标准,对政府行为的优劣进行全方位、多层次、全面而系统的评判。     

生态补偿的价值目标：国际经验及对中国的启示

明晰生态补偿的价值目标,既是健全我国生态补偿政策体系、体现公共政策属性的关键,也是调动各方生态保护积极性、提升自然生态系统稳定性与生态产品供给能力的现实需要。本文首先评述了关于生态补偿价值目标的研究进展,认为国内对该领域的研究比较欠缺,亟须补充;其次对于国际上生态补偿的价值目标选择,从维护和提升生态系统服务功能、农民减贫脱贫、推动城乡生态公正以及提高农民生态参与意识等四个方面进行了介绍。反思国内生态补偿价值目标的问题,本文提出生态补偿机制完善与价值目标导向:①以“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念面向多元价值目标构建生态补偿机制;②通过生态补偿机制建设提升生态系统服务功能;③通过生态补偿机制接续推进全面脱贫与乡村振兴的有效衔接;④通过生态补偿机制建设促进城乡生态公正;⑤加强生态补偿政策宣传激发公民生态意识。     

三峡库区高效生态农业发展方向与重点研究

在三峡库区发展高效生态农业,是库区农村移民安置安稳、缓解人地矛盾、有效遏制生态环境恶化趋势的迫切需要,也是迎接加入WTO后的挑战、进行农业结构调整、确保三峡工程顺利建设和建设三峡生态经济区的迫切需要。论文提出了三峡库区高效生态农业发展的总体方向、主导产业与农业各行业发展的思路与重点。库区种植业发展重在压粮扩经,逐步压缩坡耕地粮食生产规模,提高名优特精经济作物的比重,大力发展高效优质生态农业,不求库区粮食自给平衡,但求库区生态平衡;林业突出优化改造经济林,加快建设生态林,大力发展香料林;畜牧业突出种草养畜,稳猪攻羊,积极发展草产业和草食型畜牧业;渔业主要以生态渔业为总体发展方向,服从全局,调整结构,合理布局,形成特色,适度限制发展。最终将三峡库区建设成为全国最大的脐橙生产基地、全国一流长江名优柑橘带和果品产业带、全国最大的榨菜生产基地、重要的兽药生产基地、香料生产基地、有影响力的优质中药材主产区和我国西部重要的淡水水产养殖带。