基于系统动力学的中国碳减排路径模拟

通过分析二氧化碳排放影响因素之间作用关系与碳减排的主要路径,构建二氧化碳排放系统动力学模型。在此基础上,通过调控供给侧经济增长速度、能源结构和产业结构要素,预测四种不同情景方案对二氧化碳排放的影响,以进一步探讨二氧化碳排放主要部门减排贡献。结果表明：四种方案的二氧化碳净排放量增长趋势逐年变缓,在二氧化碳净排放量达到峰值后,调整经济增速、改善能源结构和优化产业结构继续为碳减排发挥积极作用,相比于经济增速和产业结构调整,能源结构改善的减排贡献度更高。在综合调控经济增速、能源结构和产业结构的方案下,中国二氧化碳净排放量2024年将达到高峰值104.45亿t,2058年实现碳中和,这与现实情况更加吻合。未来若能抓住经济、能源、产业低碳转型的良好机遇,并进一步加强各部门的减排努力,中国二氧化碳净排放量有望2025年前达峰,2060年前实现碳中和。     

大秦岭生态文明建设的意义与对策

秦岭在中华文明的繁衍和发展过程中发挥了重要作用,被誉为"中华龙脉"。秦岭既是中国南北分界线,也是"天然中药库"和"世界生物基因库",在以建设文明生态环境为主旋律的新时代,秦岭南北麓依然出现了不同程度的无序开发和违章建设别墅等有悖生态文明建设的乱象,如何保护秦岭,协同推进秦岭生态文明建设具有非凡的意义。为此,本文从人类社会发展史和科学史维度上,阐述了生态文明与原始文明、农耕文明和工业文明各阶段在解决的关键问题、文明的标志与内涵、人与自然的关系等方面的本质区别;从生态系统服务功能维度上(水源涵养、环境净化、生物多样性维护、生物固碳与气候调节等),阐明了秦岭生态文明建设的重要意义;从思想、行动和科学三个维度上,指出了秦岭生态文明建设必须提高思想认识,一以贯之习近平生态文明思想,提高政治站位,与党中央保持高度一致,用系统论思想制定科学规划,以水环境、土壤环境、大气环境、植被以及野生珍稀动植物的保护为根本目标,从工业活动、农业活动、资源开发利用、人类日常生活干扰等多个方向协同推进,为中国社会可持续发展提供生态保障。     

我国水务企业核心竞争力的探讨

我国的水务市场正处于快速发展阶段,本土水务企业的发展面临着巨大的竞争压力。本文通过对企业核心竞争力理论的梳理,结合我国特殊国情和发达国家水务企业的发展经验,对我国水务企业核心竞争力的构成进行了探讨,并指出在现阶段,水务企业的运营与服务能力、各类资源的整合能力、技术创新能力以及政策与市场的应变能力是决定水务企业竞争优势的主要构成要素。     

Plant vintages, grandfathering, and environmental policy

Environmental regulations that grandfather existing plants, by not holding them to the same strict standards as new plants, may have the unintended consequence of retarding new investment. If new plants are cleaner, then this effect may increase pollution in the short run. I develop a dynamic model of a facility’s decisions over scrapping and abatement, which depend on capital depreciation, profitability shocks, and environmental policy. Using data from fossil fuel fired boilers at electric power plants, I estimate the structural parameters of the model and assess the impact of grandfathering in the Clean Air Act on sulfur dioxide emissions. Counterfactual policy simulations show that an increase in the stringency of performance standards would have led to a decrease in investment in new boilers. However, this does not lead to increased emissions, since there is less investment in dirtier coal boilers as compared to relatively cleaner oil or natural gas boilers.     

秀丽线虫适应响应的形成与调控机理

除了环境暴露评价,在环境毒理学研究中模式动物秀丽线虫也已经被应用于适应响应形成及其调控机理研究.在综述中,系统介绍了秀丽线虫中存在的几种形式毒物诱发的适应响应,即同一因素适应响应、交叉适应响应与特殊形式的适应响应;讨论了目前已经揭示出的6种影响适应响应形成因素;分析了适应响应形成可能机制,即抗氧化应激体系、热激蛋白、金...     

省级政府应急管理网站功能建设分析

网站是目前政府开展应急管理工作最具时效性和覆盖面最广的平台,各地纷纷在政府网站上设置应急管理专栏或开设专门的政府应急管理网站,逐渐把政府网站发展成为进行应急管理工作,提供应急服务的常态工具.构建了应急管理栏目(网站)评价指标体系,从10个方面对全国32个省市区的应急管理栏目(网站)进行综合比较,在此基础上分析省级政府应急管理网站功能建设现状、已取得的成效和建设中存在的主要问题,借鉴国内外应急管理网站的建设经验提出相应的改进建议.     

艺术设计专业实践教学规范管理研究

从教学资源、实训基地、实训项目、学生管理、评价体系五个方面对影响艺术设计专业实践教学规范管理因素进行分析,总结出艺术设计专业实践教学独特性与规律性并存的特点,在此基础上进一步阐明了艺术设计专业实践教学在教学资源管理、实训基地管理、实训项目管理、学生管理等方面的具体作法,并且对艺术设计专业实践教学规范化管理的实效性进行了深入探讨。     

An Assessment of U.S. Stream Compensatory Mitigation Policy: Necessary Changes to Protect Ecosystem Functions and Services

Compensatory mitigation of impacted streams and wetlands has increased over the past two decades, with the associated industry spending over US$2.9 billion in aquatic restoration annually. Despite these expenditures, evaluations by the National Research Council and U.S. Government Accountability Office have provided evidence that compensatory mitigation practices are failing to protect aquatic resource functions and services, and vague federal policy and inadequate evaluation of compensatory mitigation projects are to blame. To address these weaknesses, an update to federal regulations on compensatory mitigation was released in 2008. Additionally, the 2012 Reissuance of Nationwide Permits, some of which affects compensatory stream mitigation, was recently published. Current policy, as reflected in these documents, still uses nonspecific language to direct compensatory stream mitigation leaving most implementation decisions to the local U.S. Army Corps of Engineers district. The majority of federal mitigation policy has focused on wetland compensation, with other aquatic resources receiving less attention (e.g., streams). In this article, weaknesses of current policy are discussed, as are suggested policy changes to minimize the loss of stream ecosystem functions and services. Compensatory mitigation policy should clearly define key terms, incorporate adaptive management procedures, and provide guidelines for determining mitigation costs and compensation ratio requirements.     

Australian local government action on climate change adaptation: some critical reflections to assist decision-making

The primary objective of this paper is to discuss the limitations of risk management as a strategy for Australian local government climate change adaptation and explore the advantages of complementary approaches, including a social-ecological resilience framework, adaptive and transition management, and vulnerability assessment. Some federal and local government initiatives addressing the limitations of risk-based approaches are introduced. We argue that conventional risk-based approaches to adaptation, largely focused on hazard identification and quantitative modelling, will be inadequate on their own for dealing with the challenges of climate change. We suggest that responses to climate change adaptation should move beyond conventional risk-based strategies to more realistically account for complex and dynamically evolving social-ecological systems.     

Emissions trading,equity, and sustainability: the case for allocating entitlements to “individuals-in-community”

Given the likelihood that a post-Kyoto climate change agreement will include provisions for trading greenhouse gas (GHG) emission rights (carbon credits), it is timely and important to look more closely into the merits (or otherwise) of emissions trading systems (ETS), in particular with regard to the issue of the allocation and distribution of entitlements. Thus far, ETSs and other tradable permit systems have allocated entitlements to those historically responsible for emissions or the exploitation of resources (the “grandfathering” principle). There are, however, strong reasons for challenging this practice, and for advocating the allocation of entitlements to all people, in line with the per capita distribution principle. This article argues that GHG emission rights, if they are to be granted, should be distributed on a globally determined equal per capita basis, but collectively managed by community bodies (Community Carbon Trusts) on an “individuals-in-community” basis, instead of being granted or sold by governments to (big) emitters. The approach advocated here is not only ethically more justified, but also strengthens the capacity of communities to deal with climate change and to advance sustainability. It offers an example of how a significant environmental challenge can be met in a more positive way than by the prevailing approaches based on narrow, mainly economic, considerations.