国内外大城市防灾减灾管理模式的比较研究

城市综合防灾减灾管理是城市管理的一个重要组成部分。上海综合减灾体系目前尚不够完善，城市抗灾能力仍较薄弱。本文通过对国外大城市减灾管理模式的比较和研究，分析了目前上海市减灾管理模式的现状和问题，提出了改进目前上海市灾害管理模式的措施建议。     

基于洪水灾害快速评估的承灾体易损性信息管理系统

洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统是为了开展洪水灾害快速评估,对不同洪水灾害流域和同一洪水灾害流域中的不同地区、不同承灾体(财产分类)、不同致灾因子(水深和历时等)条件,以财产的损失率为核心的综合信息管理系统。本文介绍了洪水灾害易损性信息管理系统的开发与设计的基本原理,阐述了系统的总体结构框架和功能模块划分,并且在系统数据流程图的基础上,对损失率数据库等几个重要的模块进行了详细的分析与设计,给出了系统的部分运行结果。本系统在与GIS、遥感等空间技术结合后,能够高效地完成各种洪水灾害损失的快速评估与预测分析工作,同时,本系统亦可独立作为对区域洪水灾害易损性研究的数据基础和理论支撑。     

WATER QUALITY MODELING OF ALTERNATIVE AGRICULTURAL SCENARIOS IN THE U.S. CORN BELT1

ABSTRACT: Simulated water quality resulting from three alternative future land‐use scenarios for two agricultural watersheds in central Iowa was compared to water quality under current and historic land use/land cover to explore both the potential water quality impact of perpetuating current trends and potential benefits of major changes in agricultural practices in the U.S. Corn Belt. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to evaluate the effect of management practices on surface water discharge and annual loads of sediment and nitrate in these watersheds. The agricultural practices comprising Scenario 1, which assumes perpetuation of current trends (conversion to conservation tillage, increase in farm size and land in production, use of currently‐employed Best Management Practices (BMPs)) result in simulated increased export of nitrate and decreased export of sediment relative to the present. However, simulations indicate that the substantial changes in agricultural practices envisioned in Scenarios 2 and 3 (conversion to conservation tillage, strip intercropping, rotational grazing, conservation set‐asides and greatly extended use of best management practices (BMPs) such as riparian buffers, engineered wetlands, grassed waterways, filter strips and field borders) could potentially reduce current loadings of sediment by 37 to 67 percent and nutrients by 54 to 75 percent. Results from the study indicate that major improvements in water quality in these agricultural watersheds could be achieved if such environmentally‐targeted agricultural practices were employed. Traditional approaches to water quality improvement through application of traditional BMPs will result in little or no change in nutrient export and minor decreases in sediment export from Corn Belt watersheds.     

APPLICATION OF AN ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC MODELING SYSTEM FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENTS1

ABSTRACT: A National Pilot Project (NPP) on Livestock and the Environment was initiated in 1992 to help provide solutions to environmental problems associated with livestock production. A major development of the NPP was the Comprehensive Economic and Environmental Optimization Tool‐Livestock and Poultry (CEEOT‐LP), an integrated modeling system designed to produce economic and environmental indicators for alternative policy scenarios applied to intensive livestock production watersheds. The system consists of a farm‐level economic model (FEM) and two environmental models: the field‐scale APEX model and the watershed‐level SWAT model. To date, CEEOT‐LP has been applied to two watersheds in Texas and one in Iowa. Predicted reductions in P losses for two P‐based manure application rate scenarios, relative to baseline conditions, ranged from ?4 to ?54 percent across the three watersheds; however, N loss impacts ranged from a decrease of 34 percent to an increase of 79 percent. For five other alternative scenarios that were simulated for only one watershed, N and P loss impacts ranged between a reduction of 78 percent to an increase of 20 percent. Aggregate watershed‐level economic impacts of the seven scenarios spanned a spectrum of a 27 percent decrease to a 25 percent increase in profit, relative to the baseline.     

ASSEMBLY OF MAP‐BASED STREAM NARRATIVES TO FACILITATE STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT IN WATERSHED MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT: Watershed stewardship activities throughout North America have evolved into a process that requires more involvement in planning and decision making by community stakeholders. Active involvement of all stakeholders in the process of watershed stewardship is dependent on effective exchange of information among participants, and active involvement of a wide range of stakeholders from “communities of place” as well as those from “communities of interest.” We developed a map‐based stream narrative tool as a means to: (a) assemble a wealth of incompletely documented, “traditional” ecological or natural history observations for rivers or streams; and (b) promote a higher level of active involvement by community stakeholders in contributing to information‐based, watershed management. Creation of stream narratives is intended for use as a tool to actively engage local stakeholders in the development of a more comprehensive information system to improve management for multiple stewardship objectives in watersheds. Completion of map‐based stream narrative atlases provides a valuable supplement to other independent efforts to assemble observations and knowledge about land‐based natural resources covering entire watersheds. We are confident that completion of stream narrative projects will make a valuable addition to the information and decision making tools that are currently available to the public and resource agencies interested in advancing the cause of community‐based approaches to watershed and ecosystem management.     

HEAVY RAINSTORMS IN CHICAGO: INCREASING FREQUENCY,ALTERED IMPACTS,AND FUTURE IMPLICATIONS1

ABSTRACT: Operations of a dense raingage network in the Chicago area since 1989 provided data to assess the temporal and spatial distributions of heavy rainstorms. The 12‐year average was 4.4 storms per year, 40 percent more than in the 1948 to 1980 period, reflecting an ongoing Midwestern increase in heavy rains. The total rainfall from the 53 heavy rainstorms maximized over the city, reflecting previous observations that the influence of the city and Lake Michigan on the atmosphere causes an increase in heavy rains. Impacts from the record high number of eight storms in 2001 revealed that efforts to control flooding including the Deep Tunnel system, had reduced street and basement flooding in the moderate intensity storms, but the two most intense storms, each with 100‐year rainfall values, led to excessive flooding and a need to release flood waters into Lake Michigan. Results suggest continuing increases in the number of heavy rainstorms in future years, which has major implications for water managers in Chicago and elsewhere.     

ADJUSTMENT OF STREAM CHANNEL CAPACITY FOLLOWING DAM CLOSURE,YEGUA CREEK,TEXAS1

ABSTRACT: In Yegua Creek, a principal tributary of the Brazos River in Texas, surveys of a 19 km channel reach downstream of Somerville Dam show that channel capacity decreased by an average of 65 percent in a 34 year period following dam closure. The decrease corresponds with an approximately 85 percent reduction in annual flood peaks. Channel depth has changed the most, decreasing by an average of 61 percent. Channel width remained stable with an average decrease of only 9 percent, reflecting cohesive bank materials along with the growth of riparian vegetation resulting from increased low flows during dry summer months. Although large changes in stream channel geometry are not uncommon downstream of dams, such pronounced reductions in channel capacity could have long‐term implications for sediment delivery through the system.     

MAKING SMARTER ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT DECISIONS1

ABSTRACT: This paper outlines a sound, practical approach for making more informed decisions about environmental policy choices. It emphasizes the importance of using a structured decision process to specify and organize values, use these values to create alternatives, and assess tradeoffs to help achieve a desired balance across key objectives. Although these decision making steps are based on common sense, they are often neglected or poorly carried out as part of the complex evaluations of natural resource options. We discuss several reasons for this frequent neglect of decision making principles and provide examples from recent water use planning projects to demonstrate some of the benefits of using a structured, decision focused approach: new and better solutions, increased and more productive participation by stakeholders, and greater defensibility and acceptance of the resource management evaluation process and its conclusions.     

INTEGRATING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY TO SUPPORT STREAM NATURALIZATION NEAR CHICAGO,ILLINOIS1

ABSTRACT: Many urban and suburban communities in the Midwest are seeking to establish sustainable, morphologically and hydraulically varied, yet dynamically stable fluvial systems that are capable of supporting healthy, biologically diverse aquatic ecosystems — a process known as stream naturalization. This paper describes an integrated research program that seeks to develop a scientific and technological framework to support two stream naturalization projects near Chicago, Illinois. The research program integrates theory and methods in fluvial geomorphology, aquatic ecology, hydraulic engineering and social theory. Both the conceptual and the practical challenges of that integration are discussed. Scientific and technical support emphasize the development of predictive tools to evaluate the performance of possible naturalization designs at scales most appropriate to community based projects. Social analysis focuses on place based evaluations of how communities formulate an environmental vision and then, through decision making, translate this vision into specific stream naturalization strategies. Integration of scientific and technical with social components occurs in the context of community based decision making as the predictive tools are employed by project scientists to help local communities translate their environmental visions into concrete environmental designs. Social analysis of this decision making process reveals how the interplay between the community's vision of what they want the watershed to become, and the scientific perspective on what the watershed can become to achieve the community's environmental goals, leads to the implementation of specific stream naturalization practices.     

Public opinion and siting solid waste landfills in Kuwait

Siting municipal solid waste landfills in Kuwait had not considered public concerns about the location of such facilities. Kuwait Municipality has disposed urban waste in abandoned sand quarries for the past 20 years in an unplanned fashion. Due to this improper siting criteria, environmental and health problems have risen from old landfills that are located in residential areas. In an effort to help responsible decision-makers in assessing public support for siting landfills a structured, yet simple, questionnaire was designed and distributed to a random sample of heads of households. Statistical techniques were employed to examine trends and relationships between the sample public responses concerning landfill siting criteria. The findings of the research indicated that a significant percentage of the responding sample did not know about the various landfill impacts and less than 50% were aware of the negative impacts of landfills on the public health and the environment. The visual appearance of the landfill scored the lowest impact in the opinion of the sample public while the most important aspect in siting a landfill appeared to be its economic consideration. The research findings also directed attention to the important role that the media could play in increasing public awareness. Results from the cross-classification analysis demonstrated the existence of differences in awareness levels according to age, nationality, martial status, education, and occupation of the responding sample. Statistically, these differences were significant at the 95% significance level, as supported by the test of the χ-square.