当代中国旅游发展模式探讨

当前中国的经济在飞速发展的同时也在不断地探求更为合理的发展模式，旅游业作为第三产业的中坚力量更应该进行产业改造创新。未来旅游业在传统发展的基础上将呈现新的发展趋势，基于此，提出了未来旅游业的四种发展模式，并对其进行探讨性分析研究，以指导中国旅游业在世界旅游大发展的潮流中合理、健康发展。     

Identification methods of key contributing factors in crashes with high numbers of fatalities and injuries in China

Objectives: In China, serious road traffic crashes (SRTCs) are those in which there are 10–30 fatalities, 50–100 serious injuries, or a total cost of 50–100 million RMB (U.S.$8–16 M), and particularly serious road traffic crashes (PSRTCs) are those that are more severe or costly. Due to the large number of fatalities and injuries as well as the negative public reaction they elicit, SRTCs and PSRTCs have become of great concern to China during recent years. The aim of this study is to identify the main factors contributing to these road traffic crashes and to propose preventive measures to reduce their number.

Methods: 49 contributing factors of the SRTCs and PSRTCs that occurred from 2007 to 2013 were collected from the database “In-depth investigation and analysis system for major road traffic crashes” (IIASMRTC) and were analyzed through the integrated use of principal component analysis and hierarchical clustering to determine the primary and secondary groups of contributing factors.

Results: Speeding and overloading of passengers were the primary contributing factors, featuring in up to 66.3 and 32.6% of accidents, respectively. Two secondary contributing factors were road related: lack of or nonstandard roadside safety infrastructure and slippery roads due to rain, snow, or ice.

Conclusions: The current approach to SRTCs and PSRTCs is focused on the attribution of responsibility and the enforcement of regulations considered relevant to particular SRTCs and PSRTCs. It would be more effective to investigate contributing factors and characteristics of SRTCs and PSRTCs as a whole to provide adequate information for safety interventions in regions where SRTCs and PSRTCs are more common. In addition to mandating a driver training program and publicization of the hazards associated with traffic violations, implementation of speed cameras, speed signs, markings, and vehicle-mounted Global Positioning Systems (GPS) are suggested to reduce speeding of passenger vehicles, while increasing regular checks by traffic police and passenger station staff and improving transportation management to increase income of contractors and drivers are feasible measures to prevent overloading of people. Other promising measures include regular inspection of roadside safety infrastructure and improving skid resistance on dangerous road sections in mountainous areas.     

建筑垃圾源头减量化施工模式的绿色度评价研究

建筑垃圾源头减量化施工模式作为绿色施工的一种新型施工模式,不仅能够从根源上减少垃圾的排放量,还能够达到节约资源,保护环境的目的。为了能够衡量减量化施工的效果,完善该施工模式的应用,运用灰色系统理论对其绿色度进行评价。通过建立建筑垃圾源头减量化施工绿色度评价模型,并结合某实验大楼的实例,验证了灰色系统理论在绿色度评价中的实用性。由此可得灰色综合评价结果,确定建筑垃圾源头减量化施工模式绿色度的等级,为更好地实现绿色施工提供依据。     

模糊聚类在应急处置能力评估中的应用初探

以南京某化工园区10家企业的应急处置演练为例,根据应急处置的实际过程选取7个不同的评估指标,运用模糊聚类的方法分析了10家企业的应急处置能力情况。分析结果表明,模糊聚类分析得到的评估结果和原始数据的分析结果是一致的。模糊聚类分析可用于评估和分析整个化工园区企业的应急处置能力,增强园区应急管理部门对企业应急处置方面的管理。     

危化品安全生产科技研究现状的文献计量分析

为了解我国危化品安全生产科技研究现状,揭示危化品安全生产科技的动态演化过程,以中国知网文献数据为来源,采用文献计量法对2006—2014年的危化品安全生产科技相关文献进行挖掘、整理、分析。通过对比2006—2011与2012—2014年2个时间段关键词词频排序,共词聚类2012—2014年的高频关键词,分析我国危化品安全生产科技的主题结构及研究热点变化情况。研究表明:危化品、天然气管道、化工园区等关键词相关的安全生产科技,其关注度依旧较高,但针对这些传统领域的科技研发呈现出新的特点,围绕动态分级、生命周期、云计算等关键词开展的科技研究逐渐成为关注热点和优势方向;2012—2014年我国危化品安全生产科技可以归纳为6个主要研究领域。     

基于航空金属材料腐蚀的我国大气环境分区

目的针对我国服役飞机的腐蚀问题,实现飞机结构日历寿命的分区预测与精细化管理。方法收集我国大气环境17个典型地区的气象环境数据,编制各地区的气候、化学环境总谱,并根据腐蚀电荷当量原理,使用铝合金、合金钢两种材料的折算系数,将各地区的大气环境向标准潮湿空气作用时间进行折算。基于系统聚类的方法,根据大气腐蚀的差异性,将17个典型地区进行分类,确定各分区的划分标准和我国大气腐蚀分区个数,并综合考虑当前文献中可查的其他地区数据资料与我国气候、降水、大气污染的分布情况,对我国大气环境进行腐蚀分区。结果根据铝合金、合金钢的腐蚀特征量,可将我国大气环境划为5个分区。绘制了我国大气环境腐蚀分区图,给出了各分区的环境特点、地理位置分布和代表城市。结论应用我国大气环境分区结果,可以直观掌握我国飞机不同服役环境的腐蚀严酷程度,为编制加速腐蚀环境谱、评定飞机结构日历寿命、制定针对性的维护计划和飞行计划奠定基础。     

基于自适应灰色面板聚类的城市公共安全风险测度*

为科学评估城市公共安全风险,基于“脆弱性—能力”综合评估框架从公共安全风险事件维度入手,构建城市公共安全风险评估指标体系;选取2015—2019年与脆弱性和风险承载能力相关的22个指标,采用改进后的自适应灰色面板聚类从绝对量、增量和波动量3方面进行测度。聚类结果将全国城市的公共安全风险水平分为6个类型;基于研究结果进一步分析造成不同类型特征的原因,明确各城市公共安全管理存在的薄弱点,提出相关改进建议。研究结果表明:北京和上海在3个层面上均有较好表现,属于低风险城市;全国大部分地区呈现出绝对量水平中等或较差,增量和波动量水平较好的特征。     

循环经济园区发展的技术经济分析

建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会,必须大力发展循环经济。通过剖析江西星火工业园发展循环经济案例,对循环经济园区的发展进行了技术经济分析。循环经济园区是一种先进的生产组织形式,在园区内,上游企业的废弃物或副产品成为下游企业的原料,新的产业链得到延伸,逐步形成产业网,节省了自然资源,减少环境污染;基础设施、公共服务和知识信息得到共享,交易费用减少,提高了企业综合效益。园区以物质与能量循环利用为目标、以产业集群为载体,通过专业化分工和全面合作,经济、社会和生态环境效益显著。     

Comments on optimizing the selection of the number of groups in a classification tree

In a recent issue of this journal Guidi et al. (2009) proposed a Random Simulation Test (RST) to assist with the determination of the optimal number of clusters to be extracted from a hierarchical classification tree. This short note illustrates the potential influence that the richness of a simulated new site has on the determination of the optimal level to cut the dendrogram. This is discussed in the context of the need for clear objectives and criteria against which a classification tree can be evaluated. A simple modification of the RST is proposed that the simulated new site of the matrix has an appropriate number of positive entries that lies within the range of the observed matrix. The impact of this modification is then evaluated using an ecological community site-by-species matrix.     

基于聚类算法的ERT污染区域识别方法

本文提出将聚类算法引入到ERT监测系统中，采用K均值（K-means）聚类、模糊C均值算法（FCM）以及混合高斯模型（GMM）3种常用聚类算法对ERT检测结果进行污染区域识别，通过一个数值模型分析了3种算法的识别效果.研究结果表明当污染区域与背景土壤的电阻率区分度较大时（电阻率差异性大于30%），采用3种聚类算法都可以识别出污染区域，K-means和FCM的识别效果优于GMM算法.最后，给出一个实际场地调查的应用案例.