工业绿色发展评价指标体系及应用于广东省区域评价的分析

工业的快速发展,给资源环境带来了前所未有的压力,于是人们纷纷探讨绿色发展之路.工业绿色发展评价指标体系的研究旨在发现工业绿色转型升级中的薄弱环节,设计评估工业的绿色发展状况的指标,引导工业绿色转型升级,从而实现工业发展与资源环境的和谐统一.文章借鉴脱钩理论的核心理念,分析资源环境的特征指标,利用工业资源消耗或污染物排放变化对工业产值的弹性脱钩值作为考察工业绿色转型升级的动态指标,建立包括工业资源环境压力、工业资源环境弹性脱钩和工业发展绿化度3个方面的工业绿色发展评价指标体系,并应用于广东省21个地级以上城市的评价分析.研究表明,该指标体系对于评价工业绿色发展具有实际可操作性,结果合理、可靠.对广东各地的实证评价分析显示,广东省工业总体绿色发展水平不断提升,在高压力水平下,逐步向资源节约型、环境友好型的新型工业化道路转型.但由于各地工业发展水平不同、资源环境约束目标不同,工业绿色发展的进程也存在较大区域差异.资源环境约束严格的珠三角核心区工业绿色发展情况相对其他地区较好,属高绿化度高资源环境压力的绿色发展模式.资源环境约束较严格的粤北山区工业转型升级也有明显进展.而在资源环境约束管理不大的珠三角非核心区与粤西地区中,江门和湛江工业绿色发展相对较好,肇庆和茂名一般,惠州和阳江工业呈粗放发展,粤东地区除汕头外,工业粗放发展趋势明显.因此,各地应制定针对性措施,促进工业结构调整,限制高消耗、重污染型行业发展,加大工业污染防治力度,推进高消耗、重污染型行业的生态化转型,推动工业绿色转型升级加快.     

Providing health services during a civil war: the experience of a garrison town in South Sudan

The impact of conflict, particularly conflict arising during civil wars, on the provision of healthcare is a subject that has not been widely considered in conflict‐related research. Combatants often target health services to weaken or to defeat the enemy, while attempts to maintain or improve health systems also can comprise part of counter‐insurgency ‘hearts‐and‐minds’ strategies. This paper describes the dynamics associated with the provision of health services in Malakal, an important garrison town in South Sudan, during the second Sudanese civil war (1983–2005). Drawing on the concepts of opportunity hoarding and exploitation, it explores the social and political dynamics of service provision in and around the town during the war. These concepts provide a useful lens with which to understand better how health services are affected by conflict, while the empirical case study presented in the paper illustrates dynamics that may be repeated in other contexts. The concepts and case study set out in this paper should prove useful to healthcare providers working in conflict zones, including humanitarian aid agencies and their employees, increasing their understanding of the social and political dynamics that they are likely to face during future conflict‐related complex emergencies.     

Foundations of community disaster resilience: well-being,identity, services,and capitals

If community disaster resilience is to mature into a robust and lasting area of research, methodologically facilitated dialogue between empirical observations and theory is necessary. However, methodological and empirical research has outpaced community disaster resilience theory. To address this gap, a theoretical framework called WISC is presented. WISC is named after four constructs of the framework: well-being, identity, services, and capitals. WISC relates the two concepts of community and infrastructure, broadly defined, to the four constructs it is named after. The 4 constructs are respectively defined by 29 variables. The broadest interpretation of WISC is that infrastructure supports and facilitates components of community within human settlements. Infrastructure is represented as combinations of capitals and services; community is represented by connections of identity and well-being. Ultimately, well-being of a community is dependent on that community's collective capital. But these two constructs are mediated by the intervening constructs of identity and services. WISC goes beyond existing frameworks by addressing essential elements of theory building that have been overlooked in the literature, while synthesizing other frameworks and areas of knowledge. WISC provides a powerful foundation for posing and evaluating hypotheses, improving data collection efforts, and, most importantly, enabling critical theory building.     

Use of linkage mapping and centrality analysis across habitat gradients to conserve connectivity of gray wolf populations in western North America

Centrality metrics evaluate paths between all possible pairwise combinations of sites on a landscape to rank the contribution of each site to facilitating ecological flows across the network of sites. Computational advances now allow application of centrality metrics to landscapes represented as continuous gradients of habitat quality. This avoids the binary classification of landscapes into patch and matrix required by patch-based graph analyses of connectivity. It also avoids the focus on delineating paths between individual pairs of core areas characteristic of most corridor- or linkage-mapping methods of connectivity analysis. Conservation of regional habitat connectivity has the potential to facilitate recovery of the gray wolf (Canis lupus), a species currently recolonizing portions of its historic range in the western United States. We applied 3 contrasting linkage-mapping methods (shortest path, current flow, and minimum-cost-maximum-flow) to spatial data representing wolf habitat to analyze connectivity between wolf populations in central Idaho and Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming). We then applied 3 analogous betweenness centrality metrics to analyze connectivity of wolf habitat throughout the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada to determine where it might be possible to facilitate range expansion and interpopulation dispersal. We developed software to facilitate application of centrality metrics. Shortest-path betweenness centrality identified a minimal network of linkages analogous to those identified by least-cost-path corridor mapping. Current flow and minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality identified diffuse networks that included alternative linkages, which will allow greater flexibility in planning. Minimum-cost-maximum-flow betweenness centrality, by integrating both land cost and habitat capacity, allows connectivity to be considered within planning processes that seek to maximize species protection at minimum cost. Centrality analysis is relevant to conservation and landscape genetics at a range of spatial extents, but it may be most broadly applicable within single- and multispecies planning efforts to conserve regional habitat connectivity.     

浅析混凝沉降实验研究与实际工艺的差异

介绍混凝沉降实验与实际沉降工艺各自的特点和存在的问题,从相似理论的角度出发,指出了玻璃量筒沉降实验和实际沉降工艺存在着几何尺寸、初始条件、运动条件三方面的不相似,较好地解释了两者的沉降速度和沉降效果的差异;并提出今后的混凝沉降实验应该进一步符合相似理论,从而更加合理地模拟实际沉降工艺.     

煤矿作业人员系统风险知觉能力量化分析

为了定量分析煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力,采用Wickens模型分析风险知觉能力和人因失误作用关系,基于此,结合模糊痕迹理论,提出了基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论,从危险信号辨识敏感性(α)和反应偏好(β)两个指标对煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力进行评价。以某煤矿机电作业人员为例,设计调查问卷,并利用基于三角模糊数的信号检测理论对机电作业人员风险知觉能力进行分析。结果表明,所提出方法可用于评价煤矿井下作业系统中人员的风险知觉能力,能为提升煤矿作业人员风险知觉能力提供参考。     

Travelling without a helmet: tourists' vulnerabilities and responses to disasters in Indonesia

Tourists are particularly vulnerable when natural disasters occur in regions that they are visiting. It is assumed that they lack awareness and understanding of the actions that they need to take in such circumstances. This study examines the responses of tourists in times of disaster, building on empirical data collected through large‐scale surveys conducted in Bali and Yogyakarta, Indonesia, in 2015. Both are important tourist destinations in the country that have suffered major disasters in recent years. The different types of responses to these events are framed using a grid/group analysis stemming from cultural theory. The study resulted in three key findings: (i) current disaster management planning largely follows a single rationale; (ii) tourists are not a homogeneous group, but rather a complex, diverse, and dynamic body of stakeholders; and (iii) the focus of disaster management planning should shift from a single rationale to a polyrational methodology. Disaster managers need to consider, therefore, these different aspects in the context of preparedness.     

基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法

为了评价地铁系统中具有显著随机性的潜在风险因素对地铁火灾安全的影响水平,引入D-S证据理论,提出1种基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法。通过查阅地铁建筑相关资料,建立包括“人、机、管、环”4大方面的地铁火灾安全评价指标体系;在此基础上,合理运用信任函数与似然函数,计算评价因素的安全上下界极限,将一般评价中遇到的不确定结果进行可靠的数值转换,从而量化评价结果;采用证据融合算法,综合考虑不同专家给出的多组检查结果在地铁火灾安全评价中的信度,提高最终评分的可靠程度。实例分析表明:基于证据理论的地铁火灾安全评价方法,能够较好地量化与融合不确定性风险因素。     

基于突变级数法的企业应急动态能力评价研究

针对企业开展应急能力评价不够科学、合理的问题,在相关理论研究基础上,提出1种将突变级数方法和动态能力理论相结合的企业应急能力评价方法。基于突变级数方法,构建企业应急能力的突变评价模型;采用动态能力理论,从感知、整合、重构和学习4个方面建立企业应急动态能力评价指标体系,给出具体评价步骤;改进评价方法并进行实例分析。研究结果表明:该方法对评价企业应急动态能力具有一定的参考价值。     

突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享建模

为给突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享提供理论依据,针对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享问题,阐述突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的必要性和可行性,并运用Multi-Hub理论,建立应急医疗床位在城市群集中的优化网络模型,并分析其内涵。在此基础上,采用基于层次分析法的线性回归方法,对多出救点、单个资源、多受灾点的应急医疗床位共享进行优化与讨论,并采用排队分配原则进行应急医疗床位具体去向的落实。研究结果表明:基于Multi-Hub理论的应急医疗床位区域集中优化模型与基于层次分析法的线性规划应急医疗床位调配优化模型,对突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位的共享具有优化和指导作用,能够提高突发事件下城市群应急医疗床位共享的效率,排队分配法能够在不超过医院容纳限度的前提下,保障应急救援的有序性和及时性。