Planning theories and environmental impact assessment

The limited and sporadic interaction between EIA and planning theory has meant that EIA has largely failed to benefit from planning theory insights and lessons. Obstacles and dilemmas already encountered and addressed in planning theory are still hampering EIA theory building and practice. An overview of the characteristics, strengths, and limitations of five major planning theories—rationalism, pragmatism, socio-ecological idealism (SEI), political-economic mobilization (PEM), and communications and collaboration (CC) is presented in an effort to ameliorate this problem. EIA parallels to each planning theory and lessons for EIA are identified. Also addressed are the application of planning theories to different context types, overlaps, interconnections and middle ground concepts among theories, the integration of values, ethics, and postmodern perspectives and the potential to construct composite theories.     

Perceived barriers to and drivers of community participation in protected‐area governance

Protected areas (PAs) are a frequently used conservation strategy, yet their socioeconomic impacts on local communities remain contentious. A shift toward increased participation by local communities in PA governance seeks to deliver benefits for human well‐being and biodiversity. Although participation is considered critical to the success of PAs, few researchers have investigated individuals’ decisions to participate and what this means for how local people experience the costs and benefits of conservation. We explored who participates in PA governance associations and why; the perceived benefits and costs to participation; and how costs and benefits are distributed within and between communities. Methods included 3 focus groups, 37 interviews, and 217 questionnaire surveys conducted in 3 communities and other stakeholders (e.g., employees of a nongovernmental organization and government officials) in PA governance in Madagascar. Our study design was grounded in the theory of planned behavior (TPB), the most commonly applied behavior model in social psychology. Participation in PA governance was limited by miscommunication and lack of knowledge about who could get involved and how. Respondents perceived limited benefits and high costs and uneven distribution of these within and between communities. Men, poorer households, and people in remote villages reported the highest costs. Our findings illustrate challenges related to comanagement of PAs: understanding the heterogeneous nature of communities; ensuring all households are represented in governance participation; understanding differences in the meaning of forest protection; and targeting interventions to reach households most in need to avoid elite capture.     

Building a Regionally Connected Reserve Network in a Changing and Uncertain World

Abstract: Habitat connectivity is required at large spatial scales to facilitate movement of biota in response to climatic changes and to maintain viable populations of wide‐ranging species. Nevertheless, it may require decades to acquire habitat linkages at such scales, and areas that could provide linkages are often developed before they can be reserved. Reserve scheduling methods usually consider only current threats, but threats change over time as development spreads and reaches presently secure areas. We investigated the importance of considering future threats when implementing projects to maintain habitat connectivity at a regional scale. To do so, we compared forward‐looking scheduling strategies with strategies that consider only current threats. The strategies were applied to a Costa Rican case study, where many reserves face imminent isolation and other reserves will probably become isolated in the more distant future. We evaluated strategies in terms of two landscape‐scale connectivity metrics, a pure connectivity metric and a metric of connected habitat diversity. Those strategies that considered only current threats were unreliable because they often failed to complete planned habitat linkage projects. The most reliable and effective strategies considered the future spread of development and its impact on the likelihood of completing planned habitat linkage projects. Our analyses highlight the critical need to consider future threats when building connected reserve networks over time.     

A Matrix‐Calibrated Species‐Area Model for Predicting Biodiversity Losses Due to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: Application of island biogeography theory to prediction of species extinctions resulting from habitat loss is based on the assumption that the transformed landscape matrix is completely inhospitable to the taxa considered, despite evidence demonstrating the nontrivial influence of matrix on populations within habitat remnants. The island biogeography paradigm therefore needs refining to account for specific responses of taxa to the area of habitat “islands” and to the quality of the surrounding matrix. We incorporated matrix effects into island theory by partitioning the slope (z value) of species–area relationships into two components: γ, a constant, and σ, a measure of taxon‐specific responses to each component of a heterogeneous matrix. We used our matrix‐calibrated model to predict extinction and endangerment of bird species resulting from land‐use change in 20 biodiversity hotspots and compared these predictions with observed numbers of extinct and threatened bird species. We repeated this analysis with the conventional species–area model and the countryside species–area model, considering alternative z values of 0.35 (island) or 0.22 (continental). We evaluated the relative strength of support for each of the five candidate models with Akaike's information criterion (AIC). The matrix‐calibrated model had the highest AIC weight (w_i = 89.21%), which means the weight of evidence in support of this model was the optimal model given the set of candidate models and the data. In addition to being a valuable heuristic tool for assessing extinction risk, our matrix‐calibrated model also allows quantitative assessment of biodiversity benefits (and trade‐offs) of land‐management options in human‐dominated landscapes. Given that processes of secondary regeneration have become more widespread across tropical regions and are predicted to increase, our matrix‐calibrated model will be increasingly appropriate for practical conservation in tropical landscapes.     

A generalized analytical solution for turbulent dispersion with inhomogeneous wind and diffusion coefficient

A technique is presented to solve analytically the turbulent diffusion equation for the concentration of a passive contaminant emitted from an elevated continuous source into the atmosphere. A generalized method of solution using Sturm–Liouville and WKB theories is developed to overcome difficulties due to the height‐dependent wind velocity and diffusion coefficient appearing in the diffusion equation. The method presented in this paper is able to derive an asymptotic expression for the concentration obtained from the solution of the atmospheric diffusion equation which involves explicitly inhomogeneous wind velocity and diffusion coefficient. The diffusion equation model derived from this method can be applied in a practical prediction of contaminant concentration in a turbulent atmosphere. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

基于信息融合的建筑施工安全预警管理研究

针对建筑业安全事故率居高不下的现状,找出事故频发的主要原因。基于主要原因中人、机、环境和管理4方面数据和信息的复杂性、不确定性,提出采用信息融合技术的D-S证据理论法对建筑施工全过程中的人、机、环境、管理4方面的数据和信息进行分析和预测,并构建建筑施工安全预警管理预测模型。该预测模型能判断建筑施工项目的"安全状态",能解决建筑施工中安全事故及危险源的预测问题;同时针对具体情况采取防范措施,及时矫正安全隐患和确保安全施工。将D-S证据理论法应用于建筑施工安全预警管理中,扩展了建筑施工安全管理的手段。     

Relationship between conservation biology and ecology shown through machine reading of 32,000 articles

Conservation biology was founded on the idea that efforts to save nature depend on a scientific understanding of how it works. It sought to apply ecological principles to conservation problems. We investigated whether the relationship between these fields has changed over time through machine reading the full texts of 32,000 research articles published in 16 ecology and conservation biology journals. We examined changes in research topics in both fields and how the fields have evolved from 2000 to 2014. As conservation biology matured, its focus shifted from ecology to social and political aspects of conservation. The 2 fields diverged and now occupy distinct niches in modern science. We hypothesize this pattern resulted from increasing recognition that social, economic, and political factors are critical for successful conservation and possibly from rising skepticism about the relevance of contemporary ecological theory to practical conservation.     

An ecological framework for contextualizing carnivore–livestock conflict

Carnivore predation on livestock is a complex management and policy challenge, yet it is also intrinsically an ecological interaction between predators and prey. Human–wildlife interactions occur in socioecological systems in which human and environmental processes are closely linked. However, underlying human–wildlife conflict and key to unpacking its complexity are concrete and identifiable ecological mechanisms that lead to predation events. To better understand how ecological theory accords with interactions between wild predators and domestic prey, we developed a framework to describe ecological drivers of predation on livestock. We based this framework on foundational ecological theory and current research on interactions between predators and domestic prey. We used this framework to examine ecological mechanisms (e.g., density-mediated effects, behaviorally mediated effects, and optimal foraging theory) through which specific management interventions operate, and we analyzed the ecological determinants of failure and success of management interventions in 3 case studies: snow leopards (Panthera uncia), wolves (Canis lupus), and cougars (Puma concolor). The varied, context-dependent successes and failures of the management interventions in these case studies demonstrated the utility of using an ecological framework to ground research and management of carnivore–livestock conflict. Mitigation of human–wildlife conflict appears to require an understanding of how fundamental ecological theories work within domestic predator–prey systems.     

Application of Rice’s theory to recurrence statistics of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes

Rice’s theory for the statistical properties of random noise currents has been employed in the context of concentration fluctuations in dispersing plumes. Within this context, the theory has been extended to calculate the distribution of excursion times above a small threshold for arbitrary spacings between an up-crossing and the successive down-crossing. This approach has then been applied to a second-order stochastic model for the evolution of odour concentrations and their time derivative (simple model), and to the superstatistics extension of this model [Reynolds (2007) Phys. Fluids]. In agreement with the measurements of Yee and coworkers [Yee et al. (1993) Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 65, Yee et al. (1994) J. Appl. Meteorol. 33 ], both formulations predict a distribution of excursion times that can be well approximated by a power-law profile with exponent close to −3/2. For the superstatistical model the power-law profile extends over approximately three or more decades, for the simple model this range is smaller. Compared to the simple model, predictions for the superstatistical model are in a better agreement with the measurements.     

轨道交通枢纽灾害风险等级评估方法研究

轨道交通枢纽灾害发生具有随机性和复杂性特征。为了评价轨道交通枢纽灾害风险,对轨道交通枢纽运营灾害的进行了调研,应用事故树法对轨道交通枢纽进行了灾害识别;基于物元理论,分析了灾害事件影响后果并协同考虑灾害事件的发生概率,建立轨道交通枢纽灾害风险等级划分标准,确定致灾因子的风险等级;采用层次分析法确定致灾因子权重系数,运用加权平均的原则确定典型灾害风险等级,并应用灾害链理论对灾害风险等级进行修正。最后以实例分析的方式证明该评价方法的可行性和客观性。