用突变理论分析矿山冒落型地震机理

矿山冒落型地震是一种破坏性最为严重的地质灾害之一。研究其成因机理 ,对矿山安全生产具有重大的现实意义。笔者根据矿山冒落型地震的特征 ,应用突变理论和能量守恒原理 ,建立了一个简单的力学模型 ,提出由地下开采引起采空区顶板突然破坏和冒落—释放能量—诱发地震的观点 ,并结合现场实例进行分析 ,得到顶板冒落和所释放出来的能量表达式 ,这为研究矿山冒落型地震成因机理提供了一种新的方法。     

碳纳米管界面改性超滤膜的抗污机理解析

以碳纳米管(CNT)为核心改性材料,采用喷涂法对聚醚砜(PES)超滤膜进行界面改性,研究改性膜的抗污染性能.结果表明:改性膜经聚乙烯醇交联稳定后,呈现微弱的通透性降低和明显的亲水性提升,CNT交织网状层提高了界面粗糙度;在牛血清白蛋白(BSA)污染试验中,CNT-10改性膜的抗污性能最好,在20mg/L BSA试验后,...     

论系统论视域下的流域生态环境行政治理

流域及其生态环境问题的特殊性引发行政治理体系的变革,系统论为流域生态环境行政治理体系的建构指明了方向,流域生态环境行政治理体系的建构是系统化的工程。在系统论指引下,结合相关规范性文件,流域生态环境行政治理系统的建构需从建立协调机制、规范职权行使与推进治理协同三方面切入,并分别明确三者在流域生态环境行政治理系统中的作用,通过建立议事协调机构发挥协调机制的统筹协调功能、通过整合与上收行政机关职权明确规范职权行使的实施功能、通过建立治理协同机制发挥推进治理协同的支持与保障功能。     

基于尖点突变的人群拥挤模型研究

近年来的统计分析表明,人群拥挤踩踏事故逐步上升为大型公共聚集场所的主要人为事故灾害类型之一。为了防止这类事故带来的危害,需要从理论高度开展对人群拥挤踩踏事故的承载体人群的运行系统的研究。国内外关于人群拥挤事故的研究方法很多,但至今还未找到较为完善、科学和经济的方法。因此提出将尖点突变理论引入到人群拥挤模型中,建立人群拥挤的尖点突变模型。实证分析表明,用突变模型得出的结论与数据拟合得出的结果大体一致,这说明突变理论应用于此领域是可行的。     

基于证据理论的城市防洪应急预案评估研究

城市防洪工作的重要工具之一就是城市防洪应急预案,它的有效性直接关乎防洪工作的效率。以城市防洪应急预案为研究对象,建立其有效性评估体系。重点研究了评估体系中响应措施的合理性评估,并基于证据理论来解决评估中的不确定性问题。最后以《武汉市洪山区防洪预案》进行实例分析,验证了证据理论应用于响应措施合理性评估的可行性。     

Stayers versus movers: Social capital and early career imprinting among young professionals

We investigate what interfirm career mobility patterns would emerge if individuals are motivated by the job rewards they obtain as a function of their experience in organizations. We articulate two career strategies that individuals employ to navigate their early careers—commitment to a single employer and “job hopping” between different employers. Each strategy generates social capital (an individual's structure of social relations) but of a different kind. Embeddedness in the same organization over time develops a strong local identity and reputation within the firm. Boundary spanning through experience in different organizations creates opportunities for connecting people and ideas and for knowledge transfer between firms. We posit and present evidence that the choice between these two strategies is conditioned by social experience at the onset of one's career—the length of tenure with the first employer—which sorts individuals into “stayers” and “movers.”     

Young females' attention toward road safety images: An ERP study of the revised reinforcement sensitivity theory

Objective: This study examined whether reward and punishment sensitivities, as conceptualized by Gray and McNaughton's revised reinforcement sensitivity theory (RST), influenced young female drivers' attention toward a series of positive and negative antispeeding advertisement images. Young females' increasing crash risk is associated with their engagement in risky behaviors, which, in turn, has been associated with a stronger behavioral approach system (BAS; sensitive to rewards). It was predicted that individuals with a stronger BAS would elicit larger N100 and N200 mean amplitudes (reflecting greater attention) toward the positive images. Similar associations were predicted in relation to the fight–flight–freeze system (FFFS; sensitive to punishments) for negative images.

Method: Twenty-four female drivers (17–25 years; final N = 16) completed Corr-Cooper's RST-Personality Questionnaire, prior to undergoing an event-related potential computerized visual task (i.e., oddball paradigm) that included positive, negative, and neutral images as targets against checkerboard image distractors.

Results: Contrary to expectations, individuals with a stronger BAS (Reward Reactivity and Impulsivity) demonstrated significantly larger N200 mean amplitudes at the Cz electrode site on presentation of the negative images than those with a weaker BAS. No other significant RST effects were found.

Conclusions: These findings provide some preliminary objective support for the use of negative emotion-based road safety advertisements for young females. Further, this study provides support for using psychophysiological measures to enhance understanding of traffic injury persuasion.     

基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。     

生态文明阈值和绿值二步测度:指标-指数耦合链方法

拟破解生态文明测度和评价的现存难题:在指标选取方面,评价目标模糊,指标筛选的主观性强,缺乏结构化方法,导致指标泛化,与一般环境经济评价混淆;在测度标尺方面,无法确定生态文明阈值,对不同文明阶段用同一把尺子去衡量,导致一些非生态文明区域的排名反而靠前;在应用价值方面,综合指标值失去生态经济意义,只是一个抽象的排名数字,导致测度结果不便于理解和运用。为此,依据文明演化的共生理论创立指标-指数耦合链方法,用以导出生态文明测度的阈值和绿值二步指数。依次运用扎根理论法、PSIR及SEM结构模型、足迹家族法、Lotka-Volterra模型等工具,构建从生态文明的指标体系到二步指数的结构化耦合链。全过程始终聚焦生态文明的本质属性——产业与生态的互利共生性:以定性科学属性为出发点,以人与自然复合系统的结构模型为纽带,以生态文明阈值和绿值二步指数定量模型为归宿点。其中,阈值用产业受力指数、生态受力指数和共生度指数3项指数进行衡量,合称为阈值指数;而绿值用1项综合反映区域产业与生态的总量、共生程度和均衡程度的绿值指数进行衡量。据此进行区域生态文明的二步测度。第一步,基于阈值指数的阶段或资格判定:通过产业与生态的共生性,考量被测区域是否进入生态文明门槛,"未入门"区域处于哪一个文明阶段。第二步,基于绿值指数的水平判定:通过产业与生态的互利共生程度,考量"入门"区域的生态文明水平。研究表明,指标-指数耦合链方法不仅可以有效克服单纯指标体系综合法或指数函数法的缺陷和难点,而且能够将两者的长处结合起来。如此,不仅能够避免生态文明测度结果与物质文明"成正比"的弊端,而且能够通过从生态文明二步指数回溯至指标体系的逆向解耦,分析出导致生态文明问题的根本原因,便于提出切中肯綮的对策。