Planning theories and environmental impact assessment

The limited and sporadic interaction between EIA and planning theory has meant that EIA has largely failed to benefit from planning theory insights and lessons. Obstacles and dilemmas already encountered and addressed in planning theory are still hampering EIA theory building and practice. An overview of the characteristics, strengths, and limitations of five major planning theories—rationalism, pragmatism, socio-ecological idealism (SEI), political-economic mobilization (PEM), and communications and collaboration (CC) is presented in an effort to ameliorate this problem. EIA parallels to each planning theory and lessons for EIA are identified. Also addressed are the application of planning theories to different context types, overlaps, interconnections and middle ground concepts among theories, the integration of values, ethics, and postmodern perspectives and the potential to construct composite theories.     

Research on carbon emissions in China's export trade based on input-output model

Becoming the world’s largest emitter of carbon makes China the object of criticism;however,people may ignore the fact that when China exports low-carbon products,the carbon emissions have been left in the meanwhile,forming the so-called"embodied carbon".Using the input-output model,this paper analyzes the carbon emission intensity and amount of embodied carbon of various sectors in China’s export trade in 2002 and 2007,and filters out high carbon emission sectors.In addition,this paper also points out the problem of carbon emissions’international transfer from developed countries to China through the analysis of national and regional flow of export carbon emissions and changing of the proportion of emissions for exports relative to total emissions,and explains the reason that caused carbon transfer to China by using the treadmill of production theory.Based on that,this paper proposes some measures for carbon reduction in China from the foreign trade perspective.     

Evaluation of oasis ecosystem risk by reliability theory in an arid area： A case study in the Shiyang River Basin, China

Ecosystem risk is a new concept in understanding environmental problems. It is important to study and develop quantitative methods for regional ecosystem risk analysis. In this study, some new indicators and methods for measuring oasis ecosystem risk were established using reliability theory. These indicators are linked to water resource, which is the key restricting factor in arid area oasis ecosystems. They have clear meanings and can also be compared in different arid area oases. A case study in the Liangzhou oasis of the Shiyang River Basin in China shows how to calculate these ecosystem risk indicators. The results of the case study are as follows： the reliability indicator, risk indicator, stability indicator, and integrated loss indicator of the Liangzhou oasis are 0.686, 0.314, 0.743, and 0.301, respectively. This means that the reliability degree of the oasis＇s ecosystem safety is 68.6%; the degree of risk that it is unsafe is 31.4%; the stability degree is 74.3%; and 30.1% of the oasis＇s area is supported by over-exploiting underground water and damaging the lower reaches of the ecosystem. This result can be used as a guide in controlling and managing ecosystem risk in the research area.     

基于可拓理论的煤矿安全预警模型研究

基于可拓理论的综合预警模型是基于参变量物元的动态评价模型,该模型利用层次分析法确定各预警指标的权重,以综合关联度作为评价准则,避免了预警模型的主观性.该模型在河南神火煤电股份有限公司新庄矿安全预警分析中应用,指出了该矿的整体安全状况及存在的问题,并提出相应的改进对策,表明该方法计算简便,易于推广使用.     

人员疏散拥堵问题的博弈分析

从经济学的角度,应用博弈论中经典的"公共地悲剧"理论,分析疏散出口、安全通道等没有排他性所有权的稀缺性资源供给与需求之间的矛盾,提出了人员疏散过程中的博弈数学模型,揭示在理性的疏散人员追求自身收益最大化和没有有效约束与管制的前提条件下,疏散出口等公共资源会被过度使用的现象,即人员疏散过程中的"公共地悲剧"——人员拥堵,并在所提出的博弈模型基础上,从设计与管理的角度,给出一些解决拥堵问题的建议和对策。     

基于统计和信度理论的火灾保险费率分级方法

通过对建筑火灾保险费率厘定的调查、研究,确定了关于建筑物火灾保险费率的主要影响因素;详细介绍基于统计理论和信度理论的火灾保险费率分级方法,并以美国马萨诸塞州东海岸地区为例,给出其实际的应用算例;结合实际中的问题,分析了基于统计理论和信度理论的火灾保险费率分级方法的优缺点,为我国建筑火灾保险费率厘定的研究提供了依据和参考。     

沿海和河口城市防灾设防标准系统分析

本文针对天津、上海、青岛等三种不同类型的沿海、河口城市,运用灰色理论、随机模拟等方法进行了洪水、风暴湖、巨浪等环境因素的计算,并进行了灾害经济损失的风险分析,给出了不同的防灾设防标准。     

政府管制下的水权制度博弈分析

政府管制下的水权制度通常基于全流域的整体利益对流域水资源进行优化配置。但是由于信息不对称。管理者无法得知用水户的真实收益函数，以及委托一代理等原因。会出现“政府失灵”。通过深入分析在水权制度体系下政府管理者与用水户的行为特点。针对双方不同的行为方式。可以为政府管理者提供有效的政策工具．以减少因“政府失灵”所导致的制度失效。本文从水权制度运行的微观层面出发。对政府管理者和用水户之间的行为进行了博弈分析．考察了在不同的政策下双方的行为变化。以及对水权制度所产生的影响。认为政府可以通过降低检查成本、加强内部管理、提高超额罚金以及对不同类型的用水户进行差别对待等方式．使得用水户降低超额取水的频率，以实现全流域水资源优化配置的制度目标。     

论毛泽东的讲话风格对思想政治理论课教学的方法论启示

本文将毛泽东的谈话风格概括为广征博引、形散神聚;幽默轻松、寓庄于谐;妙用比喻、以小见大;通俗朴实、平中见奇等四个方面.并认为,高校思想政治理论课教师在教学风格和教学艺术方面应当积极借鉴毛泽东的上述谈话风格,在博览群书的基础上,突破就思想谈思想、就政治讲政治的教学习惯,使思想政治理论课教学进一步丰富化、趣味化、生活化和休闲化.     

CDM Projects under the Kyoto Protocol: A Methodology for Sustainability Assessment – Experiences from South Africa and Uruguay

Under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries may finance greenhouse gases mitigation projects in developing countries. The Kyoto Protocol explicitly requires that the CDM shall assist developing countries to achieve sustainable development. However, a clear definition of sustainability for CDM projects is still debatable. MATA-CDM (Multi-Attributive Assessment of CDM Projects) is an approach that facilitates a quantitative assessment of potential projects regarding their contribution to sustainable development. This paper presents applications of MATA-CDM in two different countries. In South Africa, the application was done mainly for academic and demonstrative purposes, whereas in Uruguay it was implemented together with the responsible Designated National Authority (DNA). The work in both countries included the selection of sustainability criteria and measurable indicators. Experts weighted the criteria using personal interviews and a multi-stakeholder workshop. This method was applied to three potential CDM projects in South Africa and one in Uruguay. Results show that under the conditions of this study, the MATA-CDM approach yet fails to yield a perfect quantitative overall sustainability assessment of CDM projects but that several findings could be useful to further develop the approach with the aim to translate the vague term sustainable development to a mainstream project level. Valuable experience was in particular collected with different stakeholder processes to perform criteria weighting.