基于N-K模型的城市燃气管道失效可能性因素耦合分析

为分析多因素耦合作用对城市燃气管道失效可能性的影响,构建了基于复杂网络的N-K模型;应用轨迹交叉理论分析管道失效可能性因素的耦合作用机理;基于N-K模型对2011—2014年所发生的1 127起城市燃气管道事故进行耦合分析,计算不同耦合方式发生的概率和耦合值。结果表明:多因素耦合过程中,参与耦合的因素越多,管道失效的概率越大,但耦合发生的频率却随耦合因素的增加逐渐减少;环境因素和人为因素参与耦合时,管道失效的概率较大。     

Global environmental assessments: Impact mechanisms

Many impacts of Global Environmental Assessment (GEA) processes on policy processes, and the mechanisms underlying these impacts, remain underappreciated. In this research, we focus on the 5th Global Environment Outlook and the Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Based on the perception of GEA process participants, we describe the mechanisms through which assessments create or alter interpersonal interactions which can affect the dissemination of ideas. In particular, we find that GEAs can contribute to framing international coordinative discourses in intergovernmental negotiations. This can be achieved by widening, improving and/or maintaining the active participation of policy actors in the discussions of global environmental risks and by creating the scientific foundations for intergovernmental negotiations. GEAs can also contribute to national coordinative discourses by facilitating reflexive learning amongst participants, empowering them to diffuse and translate global information, and by providing methodological guidance. They can contribute to national communicative discourses by reviving interest and awareness of the urgency to address environmental problems. In this way they provide powerful arguments for governmental societal actors to challenge or strengthen existing national coordinative discourses. Finally, GEAs can improve scientific discourses worldwide by enhancing the capacity of individual researchers to produce and communicate relevant research insights. This is achieved by participating in a learning exercise with an extended community of peers and policy actors. This article is part of a special issue on solution-oriented global environmental assessments.     

Triangulation theory applied to conflict over hormone herbicide drift in Natal,South Africa

Policies that arise out of conflict or collaboration between specific interest groups and government agencies are often explained by theoretical constructs that fall under the umbrella of group theory. Triangulation theory is one of these constructs and serves to explain the mutuality of interests that exist between government agencies and interest groups expressed as points linking geometric forms. Conflict tends to occur when competing interest groups are excluded from the linkage, in this case between the opponents and proponents of hormone herbicides in the Tala area in Natal, South Africa. In opposition to the use of hormone herbicides were vegetable farmers and their supporters: in linked support were agricultural interest groups who used hormone herbicides, the manufacturers of the herbicides, and the government agency responsible for agriculture. Because of the influence exerted through mutual support by the proponents of hormone herbicides, the formulation of policy decisions directed towards the resolution of the conflict was delayed. When the minister of agriculture finally intervened, the policy decisions were designed to secure the support of those opposing the use of hormone herbicides by introducing issues that cut across those maintaining the discord.     

自然资源价值的理论思考--论劳动价值论中自然资源价值的缺失

自然资源的价值首先要在哲学层面予以肯定，然后探讨如何利用市场实现自然资源的合理配置，这里的关键问题是自然资源的价值要在市场中得以充分体现。本文认为以劳动价值论为理论基础，来解释自然资源的价值、解决自然资源的市场配置问题是难以奏效的。现实在呼唤新的自然资源价值理论的诞生。     

用模糊模拟技术研究水环境中的可能性风险

运用模糊数学中的可能性理论对水环境中的可能性风险作了新的定义，给出了运用模糊模拟技术计算可能性风险的算法，并对计算的结果作了一定的分析。     

矿区生态重建基础理论与方法研究

基于10年的矿区土地复垦科学研究的实践,分析了由矿区土地复垦到矿区生态重建研究现念的转变、矿区生态重建的理论基础,对矿区生态重建的概念、特点、范围及研究内容进行了界定,并探讨了矿区生态重建研究的认识、方法及其方案应具备的特点。     

安全控制论的理论基础和应用(一)

介绍了安全控制论的基本理论和应用。论述了安全系统结构和建模以及系统参数辨识和系统控制方式。在应用方面,讨论了安全计量和系统状态评价建模和系统安全状态宏观预测问题。此外,为了克服计算上的困难。还采用了一些现代统计方法。     

分子的拓扑与表面活性剂的EACN值

用图论的方法研究了正烷烃，烷基苯及烷苯磺酸盐类表面活性剂分子的ＥＡＣＮ值与分子结构间的关系。发现分子的ＥＡＣＮ值与Ｗｉｅｎｅｒ指数和极性数有良好的线性相关性。     

滤筒式除尘器工作原理与工程实践

介绍了利用改进滤筒、增加导流装置等一系列技术措施 ,提高滤筒式除尘器的性能 ,使之应用于轻烧石灰除尘系统。实践表明 ,设备运行稳定 ,效果良好。     

粉末金属压制过程建模方法(3)--微观力学方法

介绍了建立描述粉末金属压制过程数学模型的难点，详细论述了目前4种主要的建模方法，分析、比较了各种方法的优劣，并对建模工作提出了展望和指导性意见。