Fast,cheap, and imperfect? US public opinion about solar geoengineering

ABSTRACT

Solar geoengineering, which seeks to cool the planet by reflecting a small fraction of sunlight back into space, has drawn the attention of scientists and policymakers as climate change remains unabated. Unlike mitigation, solar geoengineering could quickly and cheaply lower global temperatures. It is also imperfect. Its environmental impacts remain unpredictable, and its low cost and immediate effects may result in ‘moral hazard,’ potentially crowding out costly mitigation efforts. There is little understanding about how the public will respond to such tradeoffs. To address this, a 1000-subject nationally representative poll focused on solar geoengineering was conducted as part of the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES) of the US electorate in October–November 2016. The importance that individuals place on solar geoengineering’s speed and cost predicts their support for it, but there is little to no relationship between their concerns about its shortcomings and support for its research and use. Acquiescence bias appears to be an important factor for attitudes around solar geoengineering and moral hazard.     

风暴潮风险研究进展

中国沿海是全球少数几个风暴潮风险最大的区域之一。受全球气候变暖和海平面上升的影响,沿海地区风暴潮灾害风险水平呈显著上升的趋势。从灾害风险理论出发,在对风暴潮风险的认识、风暴潮危险性评估、风暴潮易损性评估,以及风暴潮综合风险评估等四个方面,系统地总结了目前风暴潮风险研究的最新成果、研究进展和存在的主要问题。总体来看,现阶段风暴潮风险评估研究还比较薄弱,未来的风暴潮风险研究应该由单要素评估走向综合评估,加强风暴潮风险评估的综合性和系统性。随着沿海地区社会经济的发展,应充分考虑全球变化和海平面上升对未来风暴潮风险的影响,完善风暴潮综合风险评估体系,提升风暴潮预报预警能力,为风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。     

煤矿岗前人员不安全状态智能检测系统研究——以红柳林煤矿为例

为从根本上降低煤矿从业人员实施不安全行为的概率,在充分考虑煤矿从业人员不安全个体状态是诱发其不安全行为的主要原因的基础上,设计开发一套矿工不安全状态智能检测系统。首先,对2007—2022年期间各高危行业安全事故调查报告和专家研究进行归纳,总结得出煤矿从业人员不安全状态的影响因素,构建包括生理状态、心理状态以及个体能力状态在内的3个一级指标和15个二级指标体系;其次,通过相应的表征模型对不安全状态影响因素进行深入剖析;最后,基于构建的从业人员不安全状态倾向数据库,建立煤矿岗前不安全状态智能检测系统。研究结果表明：在下井工作前对从业人员个体状态进行智能检测,能够实现矿工不安全状态“早发现、早干预”,能够有效地降低人因事故发生率,研究结果对煤炭行业安全管理具有重要的参考价值。     

藻类毒物检测方法及其应用研究进展

综述了运用藻类进行毒物检测的测试方法及指标,介绍了藻类毒物测试在水生生态系统污染的检测与评价,饮用水的安全性评价,工业废水的毒性检测,及土壤生态系统的污染检测等方面的应用及其研究进展。     

脲酶抑制法检测环境样品中重金属离子研究

为探索利用脲酶快速检测环境样品中重金属离子的最佳条件，系统研究了重金属和缓冲液类型及其浓度对脲酶抑制率的影响。结果表明，不同浓度缓冲液中重金属离子浓度与脲酶抑制率呈显著的相关性，表现为随着重金属离子浓度的增加，脲酶抑制率也提高。缓冲液类型和浓度均能影响重金属对脲酶的抑制作用，其中磷酸缓冲液中，无论是Hg^2 还是Cu^2 对脲酶活性均有较强的抑制作用：在柠檬酸缓冲液中2种离子对脲酶的抑制作用存在显著差异。建立脲酶抑制检测技术的关键是选择合适的缓冲系统。此结果为脲酶抑制法在快速检测重金属离子中最佳检测条件的选择提供了理论依据。     

受四环素影响的活性污泥胞内外聚合物特征

利用离心加超声的方法对处理四环素抗生素废水的活性污泥胞外聚合物(EPS)和胞内聚合物(IPS)进行提取,将其分为-溶解型胞外聚合物(slime)、松散附着型胞外聚合物(LB)、紧密附着型胞外聚合物(TB)、胞内聚合物(IPS).用BCA法和蒽酮-硫酸法测定了各层EPS和IPS溶液中的蛋白质和多糖含量,同时用三维荧光光谱扫描(EEM)和同步荧光光谱扫描(SFS)对其中的溶解性有机物(DOM)进行定性和定量分析,结果表明在EPS中的蛋白质和多糖的含量高于IPS,且蛋白质含量均比多糖含量高,而在slime和IPS中的蛋白质和多糖的含量高于LB和TB;低激发波长类色氨酸和高激发波长类色氨酸是EPS和IPS溶液的主要成分,且溶液中的溶解性代谢产物和芳香蛋白类物质相对含量在slime、LB、TB和IPS逐渐增加,而难降解有机物-腐殖酸类物质的相对含量逐渐降低;进水四环素浓度与污泥各层EPS和IPS溶液中DOM也具有较好的相关性;三维荧光法检测溶液中的DOM与化学分析测试出的蛋白质含量具有较好的相关性.     

Cluster detection using Bayes factors from overparameterized cluster models

In this paper, we consider the use of a partition model to estimate regional disease rates and to detect spatial clusters. Formal inference regarding the number of partitions (or clusters) can be obtained with a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As an alternative, we consider the ability of models with a fixed, but overly large, number of partitions to estimate regional disease rates and to provide informal inferences about the number and locations of clusters using local Bayes factors. We illustrate and compare these two approaches using data on leukemia incidence in upstate New York and data on breast cancer incidence in Wisconsin.     

植物根系分泌物研究方法评述

根系分泌物是植物与土壤微环境进行物质、能量和信息交流的重要媒介,对根系分泌物数量、种类的研究是植物营养、化感作用、环境修复等研究领域的重要内容。目前,根系分泌物研究中应用的收集方法主要有溶液培收集、土培收集、基质培收集和连续性根系分泌物收集系统等;分离纯化方法主要有树脂法、衍生化与萃取法、层析法和分子膜与超速离心法;检测方法有生物活性测定方法和仪器分析方法。文章结合实例综合论述了这些根系分泌物收集、分离纯化以及测定的方法,为研究者找到合适的根系分泌物研究方法提供参考。     

A field experiment characterizing variable detection rates during plant surveys

Surveys aimed at finding threatened and invasive species can be challenging due to individual rarity and low and variable individual detection rates. Detection rate in plant surveys typically varies due to differences among observers, among the individual plants being surveyed (targets), and across background environments. Interactions among these 3 components may occur but are rarely estimated due to limited replication and control during data collection. We conducted an experiment to investigate sources of variation in detection of 2 Pilosella species that are invasive and sparsely distributed in the Alpine National Park, Australia. These species are superficially similar in appearance to other yellow-flowered plants occurring in this landscape. We controlled the presence and color of flowers on target Pilosella plants and controlled their placement in plots, which were selected for their variation in cover of non-target yellow flowers and dominant vegetation type. Observers mimicked Pilosella surveys in the plots and reported 1 categorical and 4 quantitative indicators of their survey experience level. We applied survival analysis to detection data to model the influence of both controlled and uncontrolled variables on detection rate. Orange- and yellow-flowering Pilosella in grass- and heath-dominated vegetation were detected at a higher rate than nonflowering Pilosella. However, this detection gain diminished as the cover of other co-occurring yellow-flowering species increased. Recent experience with Pilosella surveys improved detection rate. Detection experiments are a direct and accessible means of understanding detection processes and interpreting survey data for threatened and invasive species. Our detection findings have been used for survey planning and can inform progress toward eradication. Interaction of target and background characteristics determined detection rate, which enhanced predictions in the Pilosella eradication program and demonstrated the difficulty of transferring detection findings into untested environments.     

土壤镉污染调查研究

本文阐述了重金属镉对植物和人体危害的机理，描述了土壤镉的主要来源，并开展了城郊及矿山周围土壤镉污染现状调查。调查结果提醒人们提高土壤质量意识，重视土壤镉污染并进行土壤修复，保护生态环境、实现农业的可持续发展。