Measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: a macro framework

The measurement of vulnerability—defined here as the asymmetric response of disaster occurrences to hazardous events—signifies a key step towards effective disaster risk reduction and the promotion of a culture of disaster resilience. One of the reasons for not being able to do the same in a wider context is related to conceptual, definitional, and operational issues. This paper presents an operationally feasible framework for conducting this task and measures revealed macro vulnerability as a function of disaster risk and hazard probability. The probabilities of hazard and its perceived disaster risk were obtained from past data and from probability distributions. In this paper, the corresponding analytical framework is constructed using the case study of floods in Assam, India. The proposed indicator will help policymakers to draw on available macro‐level data to identify the regions that are vulnerable to disasters, where micro‐level disaster vulnerability assessments could be performed in greater detail.     

Volcanic hazard or economic destitution: hard choices in Banños,Ecuador

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.     

Field dissipation and health hazard assessment of Fenhexamid on Egyptian grapes

Dissipation behavior and hazard assessment of the fungicide fenhexamid applied to grapes were investigated under climatic conditions in Egypt. Fenhexamid residues were extracted from grape samples with ethyl acetate. The extract was cleaned up by QuEChERS (quick, easy, cheap, effective, rugged, and safe) method, and determined by gas chromatographic method (GC-μECD). The average recoveries ranged between 94.2% and 99.4% with associated relative standard deviation not exceeding 12%. The estimated limit of quantification for fenhexamid was 0.1 mg/kg. The field results showed that fenhexamid dissipated rapidly from grapes and had a half-life of approximately 4.21 days. Hazard assessment was evaluated by using the hazard quotient (HQ). Data showed that the HQ value was significantly less than HQ = 1. Results indicate that hazard of fenhexamid use in grape even at 1.5-fold higher than recommended dosage was negligible to humans. This study could provide guidance for safe and reasonable use of fenhexamid in grapes and prevent health problems to consumers. However, further hazard assessment studies are needed to ascertain the hazard of fenhexamid residues on grape to vulnerable groups, including children, pregnant women, and elderly consumers.     

卤素阴离子对镉离子电化学检测的影响

以玻碳电极为工作电极、pH 6.0的磷酸缓冲溶液为底液,研究了卤素离子氯离子、溴离子和碘离子对镉离子在此条件下电化学测定的影响.结果表明,3种卤素离子均能有效提高镉离子的响应电流.此外,当多种卤素离子同时存在时,镉离子的响应电流相对于单一卤素离子能进一步提高.进一步研究表明,卤素离子能吸附于电极表面,通过提高镉在电极表面电化学反应速度以及表面吸附量来提高镉离子的响应电流.     

A wave change analysis (WCA) method for pipeline leak detection using Gaussian mixture model

This paper presents a novel pipeline leak detection scheme based on gradient and slope turns rejection (GSTR). Instead of monitoring the pipeline under constant working pressure, GSTR introduces a new testing method which obtains data during the transient periods of different working pressures. A novel pipeline leak detection method based on those transient data without failure history is proposed. Wavelet packet analysis (WPA) is applied to extract features which capture the dynamic characteristics from the non-stationary pressure data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is used to reduce the dimension of the feature space. Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is utilized to approximate the density distribution of the lower-dimensional feature space which consists of the major principal components. Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is used to determine the number of mixtures for the GMM and a density boosting method is applied to achieve better accuracy of the distribution estimation. An experimental case study for oil pipeline system is used as an example to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Green thermal analysis for predicting thermal hazard of storage and transportation safety for tert-butyl peroxybenzoate

Liquid organic peroxides, such as tert-butyl peroxybenzoate (TBPB), have been widely employed in the petrifaction industry as a polymerization formation agent. This study investigated the thermokinetic parameters of TBPB by isothermal kinetic algorithms and non-isothermal kinetic equations, using thermal activity monitor III (TAM III) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), respectively. Simulations of 0.5 L, 25 kg, 55 gallon, and 400 kg reactors in liquid thermal explosion models were performed and compared to the results in the literature. A green thermal analysis was developed for a reactor containing TBPB to prevent pollution and reduce the energy consumption by thermal decomposition. It is based on the thermal hazard properties, such as the heat of decomposition (ΔH_d), activation energy (E_a), self-accelerating decomposition temperature (SADT), control temperature (CT), emergency temperature (ET), and critical temperature (TCR). From the experimental results, the optimal conditions to avoid violent runaway reactions during the storage and transportation of TBPB were determined.     

吸气式火灾探测系统采样管网优化设计

对吸气式火灾探测报警系统中采样管网进行优化设计是提高其探测性能的重要手段。基于流体动力学原理,建立管网内气体运动数学模型,给出各状态参数之间的关系式。分析常见管网布置方式的优缺点,提出吸气式采样管网的优化设计方案:视每个采样孔为1个点型感烟探测器,采样孔间距基本一致,调整孔径使各采样孔进气量相同,孔数较多时,可增设末端孔,以缩短气体样本传输时间。从理论上分析管网参数对探测性能的影响,并利用Fluent 6.3进行相应的数值模拟。结果表明,样本传输时间与管长、管径、开孔数成正比,与总流量和末端孔孔径成反比。     

火灾自动报警系统可靠性研究

火灾自动报警系统主要包括火灾探测器、火灾报警控制器、减灾装置和灭火装置4部分,从这4部分分析了其工作原理。在此基础上,着重分析了误报、漏报概率较高的火灾探测系统(包括火灾探测器和火灾报警控制器)在使用过程中可能出现的失效状态。其失效的根本原因是在探测器的设计、选型与安装中出现的问题以及各类控制器和控制软件出现的问题。火灾自动报警系统在设计、安装和使用过程中出现的一些问题可能导致整个系统失效,主要包括硬件故障、系统失误和管理缺陷3类。因此,从火灾自动报警系统设计、软硬件产品质量、选型与安装及维护保养等方面给出了提高火灾自动报警系统可靠性的措施。最后应用系统安全及可靠性理论建立了包括电源系统、触发装置、报警控制装置和警报装置4个指标的火灾自动报警系统可靠度计算模型。     

锂离子电池火灾危险性研究

为解决锂离子电池在应用、运输中的火灾安全问题,并为锂离子电池火灾扑灭技术研究提供支撑,以钴酸锂18650型及大容量的聚合物锂离子电池为研究对象,通过开展针刺、短路、耐热等滥用试验寻求锂离子电池及电池组引发火灾的条件和因素。通过开展燃烧试验,分析锂离子电池的燃烧特点。试验结果表明:正极材料为钴酸锂的18650型锂离子电池自燃温度约为170℃,大容量的聚合物锂离子电池组在内部短路后,可能发生燃烧甚至轰燃现象且燃烧残留物温度高,易引发火灾;18650型锂离子电池在短路条件下会长时间持续放热,存在引发火灾的可能;单只锂离子电池燃烧后能够引燃相邻的电池,从而形成电池组的连锁燃烧反应。     

光纤光栅感温火灾报警系统探测器在外浮顶原油罐上敷设间距的研究

光纤光栅感温火灾报警系统在石油化工行业储罐区等易燃易爆场所得到应用,但目前尚没有相关的国家级设计规范,且安徽省和湖北省地方设计规范关于感温探测器敷设间距的要求存在较大差异,有必要开展深入研究。以外浮顶原油罐为例进行研究,获得了差温和定温两种探测方式在两种敷设高度下,其敷设间距与罐径之间的关系表达式,二者呈正相关。研究结果表明,初起阶段火源功率与罐径呈线性关系且火源功率较小,按照地方规范设置敷设间距时,难以对其进行及时探测,应加大敷设密度;差温探测比定温探测方式具有更为快速探测报警优势且可以设置较大的敷设间距。