使用者成本法的完善与美国油气资源使用者成本的估算

论文通过对使用者成本法的关键变量折现率的文献梳理,提出使用社会折现率来消除目前使用者成本法估算中对折现率选取的随意性,在对美国社会折现率估算的基础上,运用使用者成本法对美国油气资源使用者成本进行估算,发现美国从2000年以来,油气资源使用者成本上升显著,从2000年的185.08×10⁸美元上升到2008年的2 264.28×10⁸美元,并且发现油气资源使用者成本的涨落受社会折现率的影响较大。用美国油气资源权利金实缴数据同其使用者成本进行比较,得出美国油气资源权利金的增长速度慢于其使用者成本的增长速度,相关费金对使用者成本的补偿程度在下降,有偿使用费金对使用者成本的补偿比例从2002年高位的42.68%下降到2008年的10.83%。     

基于BP神经网络的煤与瓦斯突出预测系统开发

煤与瓦斯突出影响因素多,难以为其建立合适的多指标非线性预测模型,为提高突出预测的准确性和增强预测预报方法的实用性,采用改进的BP算法建立煤与瓦斯突出预测数学模型。通过研究不同算法的突出预测效果,对已建模型的泛化能力进行检验,利用Matlab GUI和神经网络工具箱设计开发煤与瓦斯突出预测系统,通过向系统输入已知的突出样本数据,经过学习、训练,实现对未知参数的预测。仿真结果表明:网络在训练300次后,误差训练曲线的均方差(MSE)可以达到10-15,实际预测误差也小于0.1,系统得到的5组数据预测结果与实际情况相符。     

人为干扰对江油地区马尾松人工林群落结构和物种多样性的影响

物种多样性是群落功能复杂性和稳定性的重要量度指标,人为干扰对森林群落的影响可以通过群落结构和物种多样性的变化而直接显现,不同干扰强度下的森林群落结构和物种多样性特征不同。采用典型样地法,对比研究两种人为干扰强度（干扰强和弱）对江油地区的马尾松（Pinus massoniana）人工林群落的物种组成、群落结构和物种多样性的影响,采用物种丰富度指数D值、Shannon-wienner指数H值、Simpson优势度指数H′值和均匀度指数Jsw值来综合衡量群落的物种多样性水平。结果表明,（1）在总面积3200 m2的8个样地中记录到124个物种,隶属于105属56科,干扰强的群落各层次物种数均低于干扰弱的群落。（2）不同强度人为干扰下马尾松人工林的群落结构不同,干扰弱的群落径级结构呈近正态分布,在径级Ⅵ（7 cm≤d〈9 cm）处出现数量的峰值26株,群落结构较稳定;干扰强的群落径级结构不呈正态分布,在径级Ⅶ（13 cm≤d〈15 cm）处出现峰值43株。干扰弱和干扰强的群落高度级结构与其径级结构具有相似性,干扰弱的群落的个体主要集中在低中高度级（3≤H〈17）;干扰强的群落的个体数在各高度级分布不均匀,主要分布在中高高度级（H≥13）;干扰强的群落的个体数在各径级和高度级分布相对不均匀,群落结构趋于不稳定。（3）人为干扰对马尾松人工林群落造成负面影响,随着人为干扰强度的增加,物种丰富度指数D值、Shannon-wiener多样性指数H值、均匀度多样性指数Jsw值降低,Simpson优势度指数H′值增大,物种多样性呈下降趋势。     

The evaluation of ecology-based tourism potential in coastal villages in accordance with landscape values and user demands: the Bursa-Mudanya-Kumyaka case

Ecology-based tourism, which is integrated with nature, developed in environmentally conscious areas and enriched by different cultures, has become more important in the direction of extending tourism throughout the year. While the landscape values of the area are important functions for tourism activities to be carried out in natural characteristics, the preferences of the users are also important. Ecology-based tourism, which develops in connection with the concepts of intacteness, the protection-use balance and sustainability, and the demands and expectations of tourists, constitute the basis of our study. For this purpose, the study was carried out in Kumyaka, a small coastal neighborhood (village) of the county of Mudanya in the province Bursa, Turkey with important natural, historical and cultural assets. Fieldwork, field analysis, literature search, interviews with tourists coming to the field, interviews with the day trippers and survey work were conducted in the study. While evaluating the ecology-based tourism potential of the area, the demands and expectations of tourists have been taken into account together with the available area data. According to the results of the survey, tourists are mostly interested in having the most scenic value and quietness when choosing the area. The types of tourism that tourists most wanted to experience in the field were 42.38% culture tourism and 32.32% nature tourism. As a result of tourists’ demands and expectations, the tourism activities to be carried out in accordance with the possibilities of the area were examined and ecology based planning proposals and holistic planning approaches were developed.     

基于资源价值折耗的石油资源账户建立与分析——以黄河三角洲石油开发为例

在国际上通行的环境经济综合核算体系(SEEA)的基础上,以黄河三角洲石油资源开发为研究案例,根据黄河三角洲2003-2008年石油开发利用等数据,经过计算和统计依次建立了石油资源的实物型账户、价值型账户和综合账户。计算和统计结果表明:2003-2008年,黄河三角洲石油资源因开采而造成的价值折耗分别为154.0×10⁸、111.3×10⁸、121.6×10⁸、104.9×10⁸、106.0×10⁸、83.0×10⁸元,考虑了资源价值折耗的石油行业增加值占工业增加值和地区GDP的比例,以及因价值折耗造成的工业经济和地区GDP损失比例都有减小的趋势,平均分别为59.1%和42.0%,以及14.3%和9.8%。巨大的价值折耗带来了石油资源利用的可持续性下降,但是在当地的整体经济中,黄河三角洲石油开发带来的经济增长的可持续性在一定程度上增强。最后对结果进行了分析和讨论。     

对"十五"地震重点项目档案工作的探讨

"十五"期间,重点项目档案管理工作成为地震档案管理工作的重要组成部分,重点项目档案形成周期长,数量大,知识密集、覆盖面广,科技含量高,给档案的收集、归档造成一定的难度.为了加强重点项目档案的管理工作,提高归档质量,要采取切实可行的措施,保证重点项目档案的完整、准确、系统,为防震减灾事业服务.     

影响中小企业实施积极主动型环境策略的管理因素分析

通过对以往实证性研究文献的回溯,分析了影响中小企业作出积极主动型环境策略选择的某些管理层面的因素及其变化,并提出了今后我国在该领域的研究方向和建议。     

Effects of experience with access regimes on stewardship behaviors of small-scale fishers

Governance regimes that assign exclusive access to support collective action are increasingly promoted to manage common-pool resources under the premise that they foster environmental stewardship. However, experimental evidence linked to existing policies that support this premise is lacking. Overlapping access policies in small-scale fisheries provide a unique opportunity to test the effects of access regimes on users’ stewardship behaviors. We performed a lab-in-the-field experiment to assess how fishers’ previous experience with access regimes relates to compliance and peer enforcement (n = 120). Fishers’ compliance and peer-enforcement decisions were compared in a common-pool-resource game. Treatments differed in framing to represent exclusive access and pseudo-open access regimes, both of which fishers face in real life. To contrast behavior in the game with real-life observations, we compared fishers’ associations that have shown relatively high and low management performance under exclusive access policies. Compliance and peer enforcement were higher under the exclusive access treatment than under the pseudo-open access treatment only for fishers’ associations with high management performance in real life. Behaviors in the game reflected differences between associations in real life. Our results support previous research on ocean governance by experimentally assessing the role of access regimes in determining users’ stewardship and suggest potential mechanisms for stewardship internalization.     

木林子自然保护区不同群落类型主要优势种群的生态位研究

为定量分析木林子自然保护区不同群落类型主要优势种群的生态位,以每个样地为综合资源位,采用Simpson指数的倒数和Shannon-Wiener生态位宽度公式及Pianka生态位重叠公式分别对自然恢复20 a、35 a和100 a左右次生林群落主要优势种的生态位宽度及重叠进行测度,比较分析主要优势种在不同群落类型中的生态位变化及原因,同时对种群的环境适应能力及其随自然恢复阶段的变化等方面进行探讨。结果表明：1）青冈（Cyclobalanopsis glauca）属于木林子自然保护区亚热带常绿落叶阔叶混交林的建群种,生态位宽度最大（群落ⅠB'_(SW)i 为0.750、B'_(L)i 为0.863,群落ⅡB'_(SW)i 为0.630、B'_(L)i 为0.685,群落ⅢB'_(SW)i 为0.625、B'_(L)i 为0.658）,与其他种群的生态位重叠程度高,自然恢复年限越长,其优势地位越明显。2）人为干扰和光照是影响该区域不同群落类型主要优势种生态位变化的主要因子。3）不同群落类型主要优势种的平均生态位宽度值B'_(SW)i 为0.603、B'_(L)i 为0.570,平均生态位重叠值为0.564,表明各种群生态幅广,资源利用谱较宽,群落结构复杂;各种群对环境资源的利用性竞争不激烈。4）珙桐（Davidia involucrata）种群的重要值和生态位宽度值最小（IV为0.181,B'_(SW)i 为0.292,B'_(L)i 为0.109）,与其他种群的生态位重叠值小或没有重叠,表明它对群落环境的适应能力及对资源的利用能力弱且与其他种群的生态位产生了一定程度分化。各优势种的生态位随群落物种组成变化而变化,揭示了优势种的生态位随自然恢复阶段的变化规律。