一种灾害等级的区间数评估模型

由于灾害损失本身的复杂性及灾情统计方面存在的问题,利用区间数替代单一实数值作为灾害等级评估指标的输入更加符合实际。基于上述思路,提出了一种基于区间数的灾害等级评估新模型。首先,给出区间数距离的新定义,该定义能够充分利用区间数所携带的信息;然后,利用线性加权评价函数计算评估对象与评价标准之间的综合相对距离测度,评估对象隶属于综合距离测度最小值所对应的灾害等级。该模型建模过程思路清晰,物理意义明确,计算过程简捷,评估结论符合实际。最后,用实例说明模型的应用方法。     

二维相关地震动作用下结构的随机反应

假定两水平方向的地震动为平稳随机过程,基于地震动主轴模型的假设,讨论了二维地震动分量的空间相关性,在单分量平稳模型的基础上给出了二维水平地震动随机模型的相关函数矩阵。该相关函数模型可以为二维地震下结构随机反应分析提供地震动输入。利用状态空间方法和随机振动理论建立了线性多自由度体系在二维地震激励下的随机反应分析方法,导出了结构的位移反应相关函数和速度反应相关函数,可在时域内直接计算结构的二维随机地震反应的统计特征。最后,通过一个二层框架结构计算实例,说明了这种方法的运用,讨论了地震动强度以及地震动主轴方位角对结构反应的影响。该方法可以为结构抗震可靠性评估提供基础。     

澳门特别行政区土壤自然消减能力与污染背景

澳门是我国人口密度最大的城市.选择澳门特别行政区不同功能区绿地土壤为研究对象,首先,通过野外布点采样,调查分析了表层土壤中9种重金属元素(Cr、Ni、Cu、Cd、Pb、Cr、Zn、As、Hg)和16种优先控制多环芳烃(PAHs)的分布特征;其次,利用累积频率分布曲线法估算了土壤重金属和PAHs的土壤污染背景;最后,基于...     

三峡库区水质和水龄数值模拟研究

三峡水库是我国重要的生态屏障和水资源战略储备库,保护水库的水质安全对于国家经济发展和社会稳定具有重要战略意义.本文基于EFDC模型模拟了2010-2014年三峡库区及主要支流的水动力水质过程,重点研究上游来水和重点支流对库区水质的影响及水龄变化特征,结果表明:①模型可定量研究重点支流输入对库区水质的影响,17条支流中仅...     

基于正交实验的面粉爆炸特性研究

为探究面粉爆炸实验中粉尘质量浓度、点火能量、点火延迟时间对面粉爆炸的影响,采用正交实验法并利用20 L球形爆炸测试装置比较研究了粉尘质量浓度、点火延迟时间以及点火能对面粉爆炸的影响程度.结果表明:对最大爆炸压力影响最为显著的因素是点火延迟时间,对最大爆炸指数影响最为显著的因素是粉尘质量浓度;在实验浓度范围内,存在最佳实...     

液化天然气(LNG)瞬时泄漏扩散的模拟研究

对液化天然气泄漏扩散过程进行了分析,考虑其泄漏后发生闪蒸时的液滴夹带以及混合空气量,将闪蒸完的状态作为箱模型的初始状态,考虑空气的湿度影响建立了重气扩散过程的箱模型,并应用实例进行了验证,得出了泄漏后有火灾爆炸危险性的区域以及距离泄漏源的位置,为应急救援预案的制定提供参考,模拟结果显示了重气扩散过程中的重力沉降,空气夹带等一般特征,同时云团初始闪蒸时的液滴夹带对云团的扩散行为具有一定的影响,不能忽略.最后提出了今后的研究方向.     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.     

地下水环境中甲基叔丁基醚运移过程的动力学模型

建立了地下水环境中甲基叔丁基醚(MTBE)运移过程的变系数动力学模型,并对模型进行了验证和参数灵敏度分析.模拟结果表明,地下水流速和阻滞系数对于MTBE的运移过程影响最为显著,而水动力弥散系数的影响较小,忽略其变化不会对预测地下水环境中污染物运移的环境动力学行为造成太大误差.由此得到的结论可定量研究MTBE在地下水环境中的对流.扩散特征,还可为MTBE污染地下水的预测预报、修复治理等研究提供科学依据.     

面向作物病害识别的高光谱波谱库设计与开发

自20世纪70年代以来,国内外波谱数据库发展迅速,但都存在着针对性不强的缺陷,不能满足我国现阶段遥感应用的需要。该文通过以小麦条锈病为案例的高光谱波谱库的设计与开发,实现了波谱查询、影像管理、用户管理、数据管理、反演模型等功能,可供其它面向病害识别的高光谱波谱库的建立参考。     

暴雨泥石流预报程式

论述了暴雨泥石流预报的４个基本原理,即现象可预报性原理、成困分类组合原理、判别因素简化原理和预报决策依据原理。对泥石流时间预报模型作了分类,提出了通过泥石流活动周期与降水量周期叠加,建立泥石流活动性的长期趋势预测模型;通过泥石流活动年数频次与降水量丰欠等级频次组合,建立泥石流活动年份频次的态势预测模型;根据月或旬雨量确定泥石流发生的阈值关系,建立年内月或旬泥石流发生频次的中期预报模型;由短期天气预