QSPR prediction of chromatographic retention times of pesticides: Partition and fractal indices

The high‐performance liquid‐chromatographic retentions of red‐wine pesticide residues are modeled by structure–property relationships. The effect of different types of features is analyzed: geometric, lipophilic, etc. The properties are fractal dimensions, partition coefficient, etc., in linear and nonlinear correlation models. Biological plastic evolution is an evolutionary perspective conjugating the effect of acquired characters and relations that emerge among the principles of evolutionary indeterminacy, morphological determination and natural selection. It is applied to design the co‐ordination index that is used to characterize pesticide retentions. The parameters used to calculate the co‐ordination index are the molar formation enthalpy, molecular weight and surface area. The morphological and co‐ordination indices barely improve the correlations. The fractal dimension averaged for non?buried atoms, partition coefficient, etc. distinguishes the pesticide molecular structures. The structural and constituent classification is based on nonplanarity, and the number of cycles, and O, S, N and Cl atoms. Different behavior depends on the number of cycles.     

城市居民交通方式选择及其影响因素分析——以南京市为例

随着我国城市化水平的提高,城市交通能源消费占总能源消费的比重逐渐增大,交通方式选择及其影响因素研究引起广泛关注。本研究通过调查南京居民出行交通方式,并通过多项logit模型(multinomial logit model),探究影响居民交通选择的关键因素,为城市交通政策的制定提供科学依据,并根据估算结果分析不同政策下交通方式改变带来的节能减排效应。结果显示:出行特性(如出行距离)、出行者的个人特征(如性别、年龄、职业)与出行者的家庭特征(如是否有私家车,是否有小孩)都对交通方式选择有显著影响。如果通过有效的交通政策引导,使私家车出行转变为轨道交通出行,南京每天大约可减少1573.5吨碳排放。     

成都市餐厨垃圾产量分析预测及监管体系建设研究

整理汇总了成都市中心城区及郊县餐厨垃圾产生和收运现状,对其产量作出预测;在此基础上提出适合成都市自身情况的餐厨垃圾监管体系构建设想。     

基于SARIMA模型的黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求预测

选取黑龙江省1990-2011年冰雪旅游入境人次的月度时间序列为研究样本,建立SARIMA模型对黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求进行分析预测。结果表明,SARIMA（4,1,4）（1,1,1）。模型的拟合度和短期预测效果都较好。通过应用SARIMA模型进行冰雪旅游预测,以期对黑龙江省旅游企业的冰雪旅游国际客源市场开发及政府部门制定冰雪旅游发展战略和政策调整提供重要的理论依据。     

煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制

将影响煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力因素分为四大类,包括4个拉力因素、1个支撑因素、2个压力因素和4个推动力因素。设计了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的动力机制模型,在分析各个动力因素的基础上,构建了煤炭企业发展低碳经济的拉力机制模型、支撑机制模型、压力机制模型和推动力机制模型。     

浊漳河山西省潞城市境内段河流生态健康评价研究

浊漳河山西省潞城市境内干流段及南源段河道生态环境目前最突出的问题在于水质恶化、水量减少以及生物多样性衰退。本文从水质、水量、生物状况三个要素出发,通过建立浊漳河潞城市境内河段的水生态健康评价体系,对浊漳南源及干流段进行了生态健康诊断。结果显示,浊漳干流段生态健康总指数36.74,呈生态病态状;南源段生态健康总指数60.03,呈基本健康状态。据此,浊漳河潞城境内段目前的核心问题是生态恢复问题,应当针对其存在的问题选择适当的生态修复模式,采取相应的生态环境管理方法,把生态系统的恢复和重建作为其流域治理的最终目标。     

旅游产业园：理论模式与实践发展

旅游产业集群式发展成为新的发展趋势和现实要求,但目前国内仍存在多种发展模式。笔者认为,旅游产业园应特别突出旅游产业特色,既要考虑传统的观光度假功能,更应考虑上下游的旅游装备研发制造、旅游商品研发生产、旅游产品营销推广等各个环节。以鄱阳湖生态旅游产业园为例,分析了该产业发展模式的建设背景、战略意义、发展定位和建设内容。     

人类发展指数的修正与可持续发展的替代指标

本文确认了全球社会-生态问题(过度消费,道德危机)的主要根源并提出了新的可持续发展的愿景,重点要关注精神、道德、心理、生理和人的智力开发(而代替以消费为导主的理念)。讨论了人类发展指标不足所涉及到的因素(寿命预期、人均国内生产总值),提出了测量人类可持续发展的替代指标,即:健康人口的比例。生态效率也被建议作为转化可持续发展的必要条件,人的精神,根据生态中心立场(社会-生态幸福)。通过适当的教育和体制政策而实现环境和人类健康、公平和整个人类的发展。     

Parental phenols exposure and spontaneous abortion in Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

Widespread use of phenols has led to ubiquitous exposure to phenols. In experimental animals, phenols increased resorptions, reduced live litter size and fetal body weights. However, there are limited epidemiological evidences of the relationships between exposure to phenols and pregnancy outcomes. We evaluated the associations between parental urinary levels of various phenols and spontaneous abortion in a Chinese population residing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. A case-control study was conducted that included 70 case couples with medically unexplained spontaneous abortion and 180 control couples who did not have a history of spontaneous abortion and had at least one living child. Both parental urinary phenols were measured by ultra-high performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry including bisphenol A (BPA), benzophenone-3 (BP-3), 2,3,4-trichlorophenol (2,3,4-TCP), pentachlorophenol (PCP), 4-n-octylphenol (4-n-OP) and 4-n-nonylphenol (4-n-NP). Compared with the low exposure group, there was an increased risk of spontaneous abortion with high paternal urinary PCP concentration [odds ratio (OR) = 2.09, 95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.05–4.14], and maternal exposure to 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) also significantly increased the risk of spontaneous abortion (OR = 2.21, 95% CI, 1.02–4.80; OR = 2.81, 95% CI, 1.39–5.65, respectively). Our study firstly provides the evidence that paternal PCP exposure, maternal 4-n-OP and alkylphenol(s) exposure are associated with spontaneous abortion in humans.     

Effects of input uncertainty and variability on the modelled environmental fate of organic pollutants under global climate change scenarios

Global climate change (GCC) is expected to influence the fate, exposure and risks of organic pollutants to wildlife and humans. Multimedia chemical fate models have been previously applied to estimate how GCC affects pollutant concentrations in the environment and biota, but previous studies have not addressed how uncertainty and variability of model inputs affect model predictions. Here, we assess the influence of climate variability and chemical property uncertainty on future projections of environmental fate of six polychlorinated biphenyl congeners under different GCC scenarios using a spreadsheet version of the ChemCAN model and the Crystal Ball® software. Regardless of emission mode, results demonstrate: (i) uncertainty in degradation half-lives dominates the variance of modelled absolute levels of PCB congeners under GCC scenarios; (ii) when the ratios of predictions under GCC to predictions under present day climate are modelled, climate variability dominates the variance of modelled ratios; and (iii) the ratios also indicate a maximum of about a factor of 2 change in the long-term average environmental concentrations due to GCC that is forecasted between present conditions and the period between 2080 and 2099. We conclude that chemical property uncertainty does not preclude assessing relative changes in a GCC scenario compared to a present-day scenario if variance in model outputs due to chemical properties and degradation half-lives can be assumed to cancel out in the two scenarios.