基于云模型的富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价

为适应风险因素不确定性、随机性及动态反馈性等特点,建立新型富水岩溶隧道涌水风险评价体系,提出1种基于云模型的模糊综合评价方法.选取5个1级指标、29个2级指标构建评价指标体系;综合层次分析、熵权与加权平均计算法合理分配各指标权重;利用云生成算法计算出云数字特征参数并生成足够数量的云滴;将方法应用于贵州省某隧道涌水风险评...     

Stock market responses to chemical accidents in Japan: An event study

Despite recent major chemical process accidents in Japan, the top management teams of firms still avoid taking costly risk reduction measures because of their low perceived impact on firm performance. The disclosure of information on accident risks might motivate managers to enhance workplace safety because of the subsequent evaluation of firms by investors in stock markets. If the disclosed risk information is newly available for investors, firms with a high risk of accidents would receive a poor evaluation by stock markets and thus managers would take risk reduction measures to prevent stock prices from declining. In this study, we conduct an event study analysis to examine whether accident risk information is already reflected in stock prices, using data on the Japanese chemical industry. The results of our event study show that the estimated cumulative average abnormal returns of firms' stocks are significantly negative after severe accidents actually occurred. This finding implies that risk information is not already reflected in the stock prices of Japanese chemical firms and that the disclosure of accident risk information has the potential to motivate the top management teams of firms to reduce their firms’ accident risk.     

Utilization of Photographs for Determining Impact Indicators for Trail Management

Indicators are a key component of resource management, but selecting them can be difficult and controversial. This study explores different methods for selecting impact indicators for management of trail conditions by comparing photo survey methods (PSM) with written survey methods (WSM). A total of 661 subjects participated in interviews conducted within Mudeung- Mountain Provincial Park in Kwang-ju, Korea. PSM explained variation in acceptability better than WSM. Six major photo components (in order of importance: area of large rocks on trail, area of wood steps, area of bare roots, area of bare soil, area of small stones, and area of stone steps) explained 84.7% of the variation in acceptability of trail management conditions. This study suggests that PSM can be a useful tool for selecting impact indicators. Supported by the grant of Post-Doctoral Program, Chonbuk National University (2001)     

化学工业园区规划环评指标体系初探

本文以某化工园区规划环评为例,根据化工区的行业特点,在总结国内外相关研究的基础上,探讨了化工园区规划环评指标体系设置原则和基本程序。在充分考虑了发展循环经济和生态工业、实现区域可持续发展、持续推进清洁生产等方面的基础上,通过基础指标初步筛选、多角度指标分析和专家咨询、公众参与等三个步骤的筛选,最终形成了一套适合于该化工园区规划环评指标体系。     

环境准入门槛设置与指标体系构建实证

根据统筹协调、生态优先、地域差异、管理可行性等原则,从前置性和控制性两个方面,选取包括时序、空间、容量、投资规模、排放总量与强度以及资源、能源消耗标准等要素指标,建立环境准入指标体系;并以江苏省为例,根据指标门槛设置的标准和依据,进行指标门槛的定量测算。初步得到:重点企业最低投资准入、重点区域和重点污染行业环境准入指标测算值,以期为政策制定者提供可资借鉴的依据。     

Trend in the Status of Breeding Bird Fauna in British Columbia, Canada, Based on the IUCN Red List Index Method

Abstract:  The World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List Index (RLI) is used to measure global trends in the status of biodiversity. We examined how the index might be used to measure the trend in the status of indigenous breeding birds in British Columbia between 1992 and 2006. We followed the RLI method described by Butchart et al. (2004, 2007) as closely as possible . Because IUCN Red List assessments at the regional level are not available in British Columbia, we used NatureServe S (subnational) ranking data. We calculated three index trend lines. The first two of these allowed us to compare an index based on our original data to one based on data that had been retrospectively corrected; the latter produced a smooth, flat line. A third trend line, based on the corrected data but excluding species new to province since 1947, produced a gently sloping downward trend. Ongoing immigration of bird species in and out of British Columbia added to the complexity of interpreting our regional RLI-type index, especially because our S-rank data did not incorporate transboundary "rescue" effects. Because the RLI is scaled so that the maximum value is based on a state in which all species are simultaneously ranked as least concern, it may exaggerate the highest potential status of intrinsically vulnerable species. A simpler, more intuitive graphic allows reporting that is less dependent on context. We believe the RLI approach holds useful innovation for an indicator of change in biodiversity within jurisdictional boundaries.     

Summary of 25 Years of Xylem Tracheids and Sewage/Sludge in the Sea

The Rapid Sewage/Sludge Indicator Technique (RSIT), developed during the early 1970's, responded to critical needs within the Bureau of Water Pollution Control. It enabled quick detection of contamination in ocean water and bottom sediments during sewage-related emergencies and routine monitoring. RSIT became an invaluable tool for resource management, in determining where and to what extent marine environments are impacted, and when immediate information is necessary for public health decisions.

The RSIT utilizes microscopic examination for terrestrial plant vascular tissue, especially the xylem tracheid elements, as identifiers of sewage/sludge. Not normally found in ocean waters, this material, in toilet paper and the roughage of the human diet which passes through the digestive system intact, is an indicator of human faecal contamination. Minimal training and common laboratory materials allow gross screening in five minutes. New studies by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA), United States Geologic Survey (USGS) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), most recently at the 106-mile dump site off the New York Bight, revalidated the technique as a rapid, inexpensive, easy to use, semiquantitative indicator both for water column and sediment samples.     

Exergetic Sustainability Indicators as a Tool in Commercial Aircraft: A Case Study for a Turbofan Engine

This paper focuses on the exergetic sustainability indicators of a medium-range commercial aircraft engine for constant reference environment and ground running conditions. First, a detailed exergy analysis of turbofan engine have been performed based on engine test cell parameters. Starting from the sustainability considerations and the second law of the thermodynamics, the paper presents six exergy-based sustainability indicators. The indicators of the turbofan engine developed here in conjunction with exergetic analysis and sustainable development are exergy efficiency, waste exergy ratio, exergy destruction factor, recoverable exergy rate, environmental effect factor, and exergetic sustainability index. The investigated sustainable indicators have been calculated by using exergy analysis outputs for aircraft ground running condition. Results from this study show that values of exergy efficiency, waste exergy ratio, exergy destruction factor, recoverable exergy rate, environmental effect factor, and exergetic sustainability index of investigated turbofan engine are found to be 0.315, 0.685, 0.408, 0, 2.174, and 0.460, respectively. These parameters are expected to quantify how the turbofan engine and aircraft become more environmentally benign and sustainable.     

辽河口粪便污染指示菌的时空分布特征

2013年分别于夏季和秋季对辽河口海域的粪便污染指示菌(总大肠菌群、粪大肠菌群和肠球菌)及环境、水化学要素进行分析,研究粪便污染指示菌在海水中的数量、分布特征及其与环境、水化学指标间的相关性,在此基础上,选取河口地区合适的粪便污染指示菌.结果表明:夏季总大肠菌群数量在1.7×105~6.2×106CFU·L-1之间,粪大肠菌群数量在5.0×102~8.7×104CFU·L-1之间,肠球菌数量在1.0×101~2.5×102CFU·L-1之间;秋季总大肠菌群数量在5.0×102~1.1×105CFU·L-1之间,粪大肠菌群数量在4.0×102~1.0×103CFU·L-1之间,肠球菌数量在3~95 CFU·L-1之间.总大肠菌群、粪大肠菌群和肠球菌的数量变化与环境指标之间有着密切联系,特别是与盐度存在显著相关性;粪大肠菌群、肠球菌与水化学指标Si O4-4-Si、NH+4-N、TP和COD之间均存在显著相关性;其中粪大肠菌群与SiO4-4-Si和TP的相关性系数均大于0.742(p0.01),肠球菌与TP和COD的相关性系数均大于0.742.实验结果表明,辽河口粪便污染指示菌的数量在夏季高于秋季,近岸高于远海,其中粪大肠菌群和肠球菌的数量、分布特征与陆源污染物特别是氮磷的输入量密切相关,而且两者之间呈显著正相关关系.粪大肠菌群与肠球菌在一定程度上可以反映河口粪便污染情况,建议采用粪大肠菌群与肠球菌作为河口粪便污染的指示菌.     

工贸行业安全生产预警指数数学模型构建

通过对《冶金等工贸行业安全生产标准化基本规范评分细则》的仔细解读,将安全预警指标分解成13个一级指标和38个二级指标,对应指标给以相应的经过归一化处理后的权重。针对这十三个安全预警指标建立了数学量化模型,给出了计算方法和安全预警指数的状态划分。结合GM(1,1)灰色预测理论和等维新息模型,构建适合工贸企业的预测模型,对未来的安全生产预警指数作出预测,帮助工贸企业实时掌握安全生产动态,做到科学合理决策。