人群聚集拥挤度的量化表征方法

为有效识别人群聚集区域并量化拥挤人群聚集程度,构建全新的人群聚集拥挤度量化表征方法,归纳总结“人群拥挤度”定义,计算不同条件人群的个人间距并分析其分布特征,基于人群个人间距提出“个体聚集度”和人群“聚集拥挤度”计算方法,并对上海城隍庙豫园内九曲桥的一段入口区域进行实例分析。研究结果表明：人群规模和密度并不能完全真实反映群体拥挤程度,但通过人群个体间距概率分布和累积概率分布可以识别人群的局部聚集现象,基于个人间距的人群聚集度量化方法能够有效地衡量人群局部聚集程度和整体聚集情况,研究结果可为人群风险监测预警提供参考。     

关于单株玉米耗水量的探讨

一株玉米一生究竟需要消耗多少水,目前尚无定论。国内外许多著作中,一株玉米一生蒸腾耗水量常常引用"200kg"这一数据。在《中国玉米栽培学》中,则提出了蒸腾耗水量为80kg/株,两者相差2.5倍。文章通过中国科学院禹城综合试验站大量的玉米农田蒸发实验数据,分析了生长在自然条件下单株玉米的蒸腾耗水量和玉米平均总耗水(包括蒸腾量和棵间蒸发量),得到如下结果:①单株春玉米的总耗水量为100kg/株左右,蒸腾耗水量为60kg/株左右;②华北平原夏玉米总耗水量为50~80kg/株,蒸腾耗水量为30~40kg/株;③只要土壤水分不出现长期干旱,土壤水分状况不会对单株玉米耗水量产生大的影响;④种植密度对单株玉米需水量产生重大影响,当玉米种植密度由5.0×10⁴株/hm²增至10.0×10⁴株/hm²时,总耗水量仅增加13.18%,而单株耗水量减少了44.48%。这些数据可供参考。     

Determining the age of cyclomorphic rodents: Functional-ontogenetic determination,ecological aspects

Functional-ontogenetic determination of age-dependent dental changes (ADCs) in voles has been demonstrated. The relationship between ADCs and the functional state of animals has been analyzed. A scheme and a table for determining individual chronological and biological ages in the bank vole (Clethrionomys glareolus Sch.) are proposed, which markedly improve the accuracy of results. Cases of rodent maturation and breeding in winter are considered.     

天然气输送管道泄漏事故危害定量分析

针对某天然气工程中高压输送管道可能发生的天然气泄漏的爆炸危险性进行分析.利用质量流速模型计算出泄漏流量.根据泄漏流量和天然气的燃烧下限浓度,通过高斯扩散模式定量计算在大气为中性,风速为5 m/s,且位于市区的条件下,天然气在大气中的轴向、径向和切向的扩散距离,从而计算该天然气-空气混合云团的体积.对该体积预混云团的爆炸危害进行评估,计算形成蒸气云爆炸的参数,并应用Mat lab软件计算出该管道泄漏引起蒸气云爆炸事故的个人风险曲线,其结果可为新管线的规划、建设及现有管线的调整提供决策依据.     

Environmental strategy and performance in small firms: a resource-based perspective

In spite of the widespread recognition of the important roles that small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) play in most economies, limited research has focused on their impacts on the natural environment and the strategies such enterprises adopt to reduce these impacts. It is usually assumed that SMEs lack the resources to implement proactive environmental strategies that go beyond minimum regulatory compliance. In this study of 108 SMEs in the automotive repair sector in Southern Spain, we found that SMEs undertake a range of environmental strategies from reactive regulatory compliance to proactive pollution prevention and environmental leadership. These strategies are associated with three organizational capabilities: shared vision, stakeholder management, and strategic proactivity, hypothesized based on the unique strategic characteristics of SMEs--shorter lines of communication and closer interaction within the SMEs, the presence of a founder's vision, flexibility in managing external relationships, and an entrepreneurial orientation. We also found that firms with the most proactive practices exhibited a significantly positive financial performance.     

现阶段我国收入分配格局探析

现阶段我国居民收入分配差距的扩大在近年来越来越严重,这不仅表现在城乡居民间,还表现在不同行业之间、不同地域之间等各个方面。从上述三个方面出发,对现阶段我国居民收入分配格局进行了初步分析,并从非均衡经济、经济体制、税收制度和公共服务角度分析了造成差距的原因,提出了深化收入分配制度改革等相关对策建议,对如何缩小收入分配差距,改善现状具有参考意义。     

Lasso-Cox模型在个人信用风险评估中的应用

借鉴Lasso模型和Cox模型的优点创建Lasso-Cox模型,用以评估个人借款者的信用风险,并利用个人借款者的数据进行实证分析,比较不同模型的预测精度。结果表明:(1)单一Cox模型的预测准确度高于Logistic回归模型,而Lasso-Cox模型的预测精度达95.76%,远高于单一Cox模型。(2)考虑宏观环境对个人经济的影响,发现将宏观变量纳入模型后预测精度有明显的提升,其中Lasso-Cox模型预测精度高达98.88%。     

内蒙古乌达-乌斯太工业园环境单颗粒研究

2015年夏季在内蒙古乌达-乌斯太工业园布点采集了大气颗粒物核孔膜样品16件,采用扫描电镜（SEM-EDX）共表征了1600个单颗粒的形貌和化学组成,结果表明,研究区单颗粒主要为矿物颗粒、燃烧产生颗粒和含硫颗粒3大类,其中矿物颗粒不仅含有硅铝酸盐和碳酸盐这类常见颗粒,还有风化煤矸石和沙尘颗粒这两种特殊颗粒;燃烧产生颗粒不仅有通常的燃煤飞灰、烟尘集合体和絮状碳质颗粒,还有原煤尘颗粒.统计表明,烟尘聚合体、硅铝酸盐和沙尘这三者占颗粒物总数的64%,风化煤矸石尘和原煤尘主要呈现为可吸入颗粒（2.5~10μm）;烟尘聚合体和沙尘则主要为超细颗粒（<1.0μm）.总之,单颗粒分析揭示该典型煤炭工业园区大气颗粒物主要来源：园内燃煤排放和交通,上风向矿区煤炭生产和上风向沙漠自然活动.     

Toxic effects of acetochlor, methamidophos and their combination on nifH gene in soil

Toxic effects of two agrochemicals on nifH gene in agricultural black soil were investigated using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis （DGGE） and sequencing approaches in a microcosm experiment. Changes of soil nifH gene diversity and composition were examined following the application of acetochlor, methamidophos and their combination. Acetochlor reduced the nifH gene diversity （both in gene richness and diversity index values） and caused changes in the nifH gene composition. The effects of acetochlor on nifH gene were strengthened as the concentration of acetochlor increased. Cluster analysis of DGGE banding patterns showed that nifH gene composition which had been affected by low concentration of acetochlor （50 mg/kg） recovered firstly. Methamidophos reduced nifH gene richness that except at 4 weeks. The medium concentration of methamidophos （150 mg/kg） caused the most apparent changes in nifH gene diversity at the first week while the high concentration of methamidophos （250 mg/kg） produced prominent effects on nifH gene diversity in the following weeks. Cluster analysis showed that minimal changes of nifH gene composition were found at 1 week and maximal changes at 4 weeks. Toxic effects of acetochlor and methamidophos combination on nifH gene were also apparent. Different nifH genes （bands） responded differently to the impact of agrochemicals： four individual bands were eliminated by the application of the agrochemicals, five bands became predominant by the stimulation of the agrochemicals, and four bands showed strong resistance to the influence of the agrochemicals. Fifteen prominent bands were partially sequenced, yielding 15 different nifH sequences, which were used for phylogenetic reconstructions. All sequences were affiliated with the alpha- and beta-proteobacteria, showing higher similarity to eight different diazotrophic genera.     

民用燃煤排放细颗粒中金属元素排放特征及单颗粒分析

通过模拟民用煤炭燃烧,采集了5种不同成熟度的典型块煤燃烧排放的单颗粒和PM_2.5样品.利用带能谱仪的透射电镜研究了金属颗粒的单颗粒特征,运用电感耦合等离子体质谱仪和发射光谱仪获得了PM_2.5样品中14种金属元素（包括8种重金属）的浓度特征.结果显示,民用燃煤排放的含金属元素的颗粒物主要有矿物颗粒、部分碳质颗粒、富K颗粒、富S[K]颗粒、富Fe颗粒、富Zn颗粒和富Pb颗粒共7种.5种民用燃煤排放的14种金属元素占PM_2.5的1.29%~15.54%,其中Al、Ca和Na占金属元素总量的57%~80%,是民用燃煤排放的主要的金属元素;V、Cr、Mn、Co、Ni、Cu、Zn和Pb这8种重金属元素占PM_2.5的0.09%~2.53%,其中Zn和Pb占重金属总量的54%~91%,在民用燃煤排放的重金属中占主导.单颗粒分析结果显示Zn和Pb元素主要富集在粒径小于1μm的富Zn和富Pb颗粒中,这些细颗粒能够直接进入人体,对人体健康造成威胁.因此,建议居民应通过使用精煤或天然气等清洁能源来减少重金属的排放.