基于权重因子模型的建筑荷载作用下地面沉降危险性评价

针对于城市化进程中建筑荷载引发地面沉降的问题,以天津市局部地区为例,应用权重因子模型对其危险性进行了分析和评价。文中根据该区域的建筑物密集程度、建筑的结构和基础形式、土壤物理性质、水文地质条件等基础数据,应用GIS空间分析的方法分别提取了建筑容积率、土壤竖向应力、压缩层厚度、土壤压缩模量、地下水埋深、地下水渗透性六个诱发因子,经过条件独立性测试,将相互独立的因子组合成六种形式,然后,通过统计对比每个因子的权重值进行叠加分析,绘制了危险性分布图,从而进行地面沉降的危险性评价,最后,评价结果通过受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)验证,表明在使用全部因子进行危险性评价的情况下,分析精确度能够达到85.15%,在使用其他因子组合的情况下,分析精度均超过70%,说明这种评价方法具有较高的准确性和适用性。     

Quantifying Loss of Acoustic Communication Space for Right Whales in and around a U.S. National Marine Sanctuary

The effects of chronic exposure to increasing levels of human‐induced underwater noise on marine animal populations reliant on sound for communication are poorly understood. We sought to further develop methods of quantifying the effects of communication masking associated with human‐induced sound on contact‐calling North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in an ecologically relevant area (～10,000 km²) and time period (peak feeding time). We used an array of temporary, bottom‐mounted, autonomous acoustic recorders in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary to monitor ambient noise levels, measure levels of sound associated with vessels, and detect and locate calling whales. We related wind speed, as recorded by regional oceanographic buoys, to ambient noise levels. We used vessel‐tracking data from the Automatic Identification System to quantify acoustic signatures of large commercial vessels. On the basis of these integrated sound fields, median signal excess (the difference between the signal‐to‐noise ratio and the assumed recognition differential) for contact‐calling right whales was negative (?1 dB) under current ambient noise levels and was further reduced (?2 dB) by the addition of noise from ships. Compared with potential communication space available under historically lower noise conditions, calling right whales may have lost, on average, 63–67% of their communication space. One or more of the 89 calling whales in the study area was exposed to noise levels ≥120 dB re 1 μPa by ships for 20% of the month, and a maximum of 11 whales were exposed to noise at or above this level during a single 10‐min period. These results highlight the limitations of exposure‐threshold (i.e., dose‐response) metrics for assessing chronic anthropogenic noise effects on communication opportunities. Our methods can be used to integrate chronic and wide‐ranging noise effects in emerging ocean‐planning forums that seek to improve management of cumulative effects of noise on marine species and their habitats. Cuantificación de la Pérdida de Espacio de Comunicación Acústica para Ballenas Francas Dentro y Alrededor de un Santuario Marino Nacional en E. U. A.     

Pollution-induced successions in forests of the Kola Peninsula

Trends of changes in the successional status of northern taiga forests exposed to technogenic pollution in the Kola Peninsula are discussed. Main studies of digression in spruce and pine forests are characterized on the basis of the dynamics of species composition of phytocenoses and chemical composition of atmospheric fallout, soils, and dominant plants.     

福州市海峡供销再生资源产业园区可行性研究

对建设福州市海峡供销再生资源产业园区项目的背景、内容、规模,以及园区开发经营和效益进行可行性分析研究。园区建设作为一个长期项目,将成为海峡西岸经济区重要的废旧商品回收利用示范基地。     

Historical analysis of U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

Incidents at U.S. onshore hazardous liquid pipeline systems were analyzed with an emphasis on natural hazards. Incidents triggered by natural hazards (natechs) were identified by keyword-based data mining and expert review supplemented by various data sources. The analysis covered about 7000 incidents in 1986–2012, 3800 of which were regarded as significant based on their consequences. 5.5% of all and 6.2% of the significant incidents were found to be natechs that resulted in a total hazardous substance release of 317,700 bbl. Although there is no trend in the long-term yearly occurrence of significant natechs, importance is found to be increasing due to the overall decreasing trend of the incidents. Meteorological hazards triggered 36% of the significant natechs, followed by geological and climatic hazards with 26% and 24%. While they occurred less frequently, hydrological hazards caused the highest amount of release which is about 102,000 bbl. The total economic cost of significant natechs was 597 million USD, corresponding to about 18% of all incident costs in the same period. More than 50% of this cost was due to meteorological hazards, mainly tropical cyclones. Natech vulnerabilities of the system parts vary notably with respect to natural hazard types. For some natural hazards damage is limited possibly due to implemented protection measures. The geographical distribution of the natechs indicated that they occurred more in some states, such as Texas, Oklahoma, and Louisiana. About 50% of the releases was to the ground, followed by water bodies with 28%. Significant consequences to human health were not observed although more than 20% of the incidents resulted in fires. In general, the study indicated that natural hazards are a non-negligible threat to the onshore hazardous liquid pipeline network in the U.S. It also highlighted problems such as underreporting of natural hazards as incident causes, data completeness, and explicit data limitations.     

工业生态效率对PM2.5污染的影响及溢出效应

针对2004—2016年中国地级市工业生态效率与PM_2.5的时空关联特征和影响作用关系的研究表明：（1）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈时空交错分布特征,PM_2.5高污染区连片分布于华北平原及长江中下游城市,工业生态效率高等级区集中分布于长三角、珠三角和环渤海经济区等沿海地市及中西部城市群内部分中心地市;（2）工业生态效率对PM_2.5的冲击表现出“U型”变化的负向累积效应,PM_2.5对工业生态效率的冲击则表现为“倒U型”变化的正向累积效应;（3）工业生态效率与PM_2.5呈稳定时空关联演化特征,高高关联类型区集中分布于京津冀城市群、山东半岛城市群和长三角城市群内大部分城市,低低关联类型区多分布于鄱阳湖城市群、关中城市群及西部地市;（4）工业生态效率对PM_2.5总体上具有显著且稳健的正向影响,但表现出明显的空间异质性,工业集聚水平、科技创新及城市绿化率起到显著负向影响,而城市规模、环保监督及产业结构系数影响并不显著。     

Energy-Saving Effect Calculation and Implementation Strategy Study on the Industrial Structure Adjustment in Western China

The western region is an important strategic base of energy in China. The average per capita possession of fossil energy in the west is twice that in China. On the basis of the analysis of the mechanism how industrial structure adjustment affects energy consumption per unit of gross domestic product (GDP), the energy input-output table of western China was designed and compiled. Combining multiobjective planning techniques, setting energy-saving, economic growth, and laborer's income growth as the goals, setting basic input-output relations, production capacity, and labor as the constraints, the multiobjective optimization model of western energy input-output was constructed. The results of industrial structure optimization of western China show that: with technology and product price remaining unchanged, the adjustment of the industrial structure can reduce energy consumption per unit GDP by 2.7%, at the same time ensuring the average annual increase of GDP and laborer's income of western region in excess of 8%. It indicates that industrial structure adjustment is an effective method in accomplishing the aim of energy saving. Finally, policy suggestions from four angles, such as industrial chain and financial policies, were put forward.     

灾害损失及灾害等级的确定

将灾害损失划分为属性指标和经济损失，将经济损失划分为财产损失、救灾费用和效益损失，将每种经济损失划分为内部经济损失和外部经济损失，在属性指标中考虑了损失持续时间的影响，还对灾害等级的定量计算方法进行了改进和完善．     

地质灾害管理信息系统

在地质灾害普查、勘查、防治、社会经济状况、统计信息等资料的基础上,设计出为决策提供服务的地质灾害管理信息系统,以便对地质灾害进行科学管理     

DEVELOPING BIOLOGICAL INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT1

ABSTRACT. Management of aquatic ecosystems requires a clear understanding of the goals to be achieved, appropriate information and the means to achieve the goals. Control measures applied to aquatic ecosystems, in the absence of information on the condition of the system, are apt to be inappropriate and thus may overprotect the receiving system at times and underprotect it at other times since the ability of ecosystems to receive wastes is not constant. A major determinant of the effectiveness and efficiency of ecological quality control is the lag time in the feedback of information. If the lag is too great, the control measures may repeatedly overshoot or undershoot the desired goal. Present techniques for measuring the responses of aquatic organisms and communities require days or weeks, whereas information for ecosystem quality control and prevention of ecological crises should be generated in minutes or hours as is the case for other quality control systems. Two biological monitoring systems have been developed to generate information rapidly. One system measures changes in the movement and breathing of fish in order to provide an early warning of developing toxicity in the wastes of an industrial plant. The other system measures changes in the diversity of algal comunities in streams by means of laser holography. The incorporation and use of these systems in industrial plants is discussed.