城市安全生产影响因素及其预测分析——以上海为例

为研究我国城市安全生产的影响因素及预测城市安全生产的发展趋势,以上海市为例,对2004—2010年期间与安全生产相关的数据进行灰色关联度分析,提取影响安全生产状况的主要经济社会因素,并与工矿商贸死亡人数之间建立回归模型。研究结果表明,工矿商贸死亡人数与第二产业比重、GDP增长率、教育支出占GDP比重以及私营及个体工商户比例均呈现负相关。基于2007—2011年各月份上海市的安全生产死亡人数,运用Winters乘法模型,预测上海市安全生产发展趋势。     

Estimating resource utilization demands in implementing statewide screening,brief intervention,and referral to treatment for alcohol-impaired drivers

Objectives: The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) is used to assess the level of alcohol use/misuse and to inform the intensity of intervention delivered within screening, brief intervention, and referral to treatment (SBIRT) programs. Policy initiatives are recommending delivery of SBIRT within health care settings to reduce alcohol misuse and prevent alcohol-impaired driving. Recent reports are considering extending delivery of SBIRT to criminal justice settings. One consideration in implementing SBIRT delivery is the question of resource utilization; the amount of effort required in delivering the 4 different intensities of intervention in SBIRT: Alcohol education, simple advice, brief counseling and continued monitoring, and brief counseling and referral to specialist (from least to most intense in terms of delivery time, the skill level of the provider, and personnel resources).

Methods: In order to inform expectations about intervention intensity, this article describes the AUDIT scores from 982 adults recently arrested for alcohol-impaired driving. The distribution of scores is extrapolated to state rates for individuals arrested for alcohol-impaired driving by intervention level.

Results: Though alcohol education was the most common intervention category, about one quarter of the sample scored in a range corresponding with the more intensive interventions using the brief counseling, continued monitoring for ongoing alcohol use, and/or referral to specialist for diagnostic evaluation and treatment.

Conclusions: This article provides local distribution of AUDIT scores and state estimates for the number of individuals scoring in each level of risk (AUDIT risk zone) and corresponding intervention type. Routine criminal justice practice is well positioned to deliver alcohol screening, education, simple advice, and continued alcohol monitoring, making delivery of SBIRT feasible for the majority of alcohol-impaired drivers. Challenges to implementing the full range of SBIRT services include resource demands of brief counseling, identifying the appropriate providers within a criminal justice context, and availability of community providers for referral to diagnostic and specialty care. Solutions may vary by state due to differences in population density and incidence rates of alcohol-impaired driving.     

双风机并联机站局阻特性研究

为探究双风机并联机站局部阻力特性、完善机站局部阻力及其系数的计算公式,以实际矿井通风机站为工程背景,在分析机站流场能量损失机理的基础上,采用物理模型实验和数值计算相结合的方法,分析了机站入口分流、出口汇流的断面速度不均匀程度与机站阻力损失的关系,同时对不同宽高比的矩形断面进行多工况模拟。结果表明:断面速度不均匀性越大,速度分布重组造成的阻力损失越大;确定了机站局阻计算所需参数的合理测定位置,得出机站局阻系数计算时的综合影响系数Kc随风机工况增大而增大、随断面宽高比A增大而减小,并呈现较好的线性关系。研究结果可为多级机站通风系统通风阻力特性分析以及工程优化设计提供参考。     

Kernel-based home range method for data with irregular sampling intervals

Studies of habitat selection and movements often use radio-tracking data for defining animal home ranges. Home ranges (HR) can be approximated by a utilization density distribution (UD) that instead of assuming uniform use of areas within HR boundary provides a probabilistic measure of animal space use. In reality, radio-tracking data contain periods of frequent autocorrelated observations interspersed with temporally more independent observations. Using such temporally irregular data directly may result in biased UD estimates, because areas that have been sampled intensively receive too much weight. The problem of autocorrelation has been tackled by resampling data with an appropriate time interval. However, resampling may cause a large reduction in the data set size along with a loss of information. Evidently, biased UD estimates or reduction in data may prejudice the results on animal habitat selection and movement. We introduce a new method for estimating UDs with temporally irregular data. The proposed method, called the time kernel, accounts for temporal aggregation of observations and gives less weight to temporally autocorrelated observations. A further extension of the method accounts also for spatially aggregated observations with relatively low weights given to observations that are both temporally and spatially aggregated. We test the behaviour of the time kernel method and its spatiotemporal version using simulated data. In addition, the method is applied to a data set of brown bear locations.     

Is boldness affected by group composition in young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis)?

In young-of-the-year perch (Perca fluviatilis), individuals within groups differed in the degree of boldness, estimated by habitat utilisation and feeding activity in visual contact with a potential predator. We looked at changes in individual behaviour in connection with change of group composition. During the first period, perch were randomly assigned to groups, and time spent in open habitat versus in vegetation and number of prey attacks were registered. The perch were then categorised into personality types (shy, bold, intermediate) according to their behaviour. During the second period, fish were observed when sorted into new groups, each containing only one personality type. Shy individuals showed the largest changes in behaviour, and increased both the time spent in the open and the number of prey attacks when placed into the new groups. Feeding activity in shy fish during the second period was affected by group composition during the first period. After regrouping, bold individuals decreased their time in the open, whereas intermediate individuals did not change behaviour. Time in the open habitat was, to some extent, influenced by the behaviour of the other members of the group, but number of prey attacks was not. The behaviour of fish of the different personality types we have defined in this study seemed to be based on innate traits, but also modified by the influence of other group members and by habituation to the environment.Communicated by J.Krause     

RAPD扩增中商品酶体系对扩增产物的影响

随机选用了10条RAPD引物，采用3种商品TapDNA聚合酶体系，以5个不同物种的动植物总DNA为模板，进行RAPD扩增，实验发现，在对同一模板、采用同一引物进行的RAPD扩增中，仅仅因为使用了不同的商品TaqDNA聚合酶，获得的扩增产物差别极大；不同商品来源的PCR反应缓冲体系，对扩增产物也有一定影响，但相对较小，这说明，不同的商品酶体系对RAPD扩增产物影响很大，因此，影响RAPD扩增产物稳定性的一个关键因素是商品TaqDNA聚合酶本身；研究中前后一致地使用同一商品TaqDNA聚合酶体系，是成功进行RAPD分析的基础。     

Benefits of protected areas for nonbreeding waterbirds adjusting their distributions under climate warming

Climate warming is driving changes in species distributions and community composition. Many species have a so-called climatic debt, that is, shifts in range lag behind shifts in temperature isoclines. Inside protected areas (PAs), community changes in response to climate warming can be facilitated by greater colonization rates by warm-dwelling species, but also mitigated by lowering extirpation rates of cold-dwelling species. An evaluation of the relative importance of colonization-extirpation processes is important to inform conservation strategies that aim for both climate debt reduction and species conservation. We assessed the colonization-extirpation dynamics involved in community changes in response to climate inside and outside PAs. To do so, we used 25 years of occurrence data of nonbreeding waterbirds in the western Palearctic (97 species, 7071 sites, 39 countries, 1993–2017). We used a community temperature index (CTI) framework based on species thermal affinities to investigate species turnover induced by temperature increase. We determined whether thermal community adjustment was associated with colonization by warm-dwelling species or extirpation of cold-dwelling species by modeling change in standard deviation of the CTI (CTI_SD). Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated whether communities in PAs had lower climatic debt and different patterns of community change than communities outside PAs. For CTI and CTI_SD combined, communities inside PAs had more species, higher colonization, lower extirpation, and lower climatic debt (16%) than communities outside PAs. Thus, our results suggest that PAs facilitate 2 independent processes that shape community dynamics and maintain biodiversity. The community adjustment was, however, not sufficiently fast to keep pace with the large temperature increases in the central and northeastern western Palearctic. Our results underline the potential of combining CTI and CTI_SD metrics to improve understanding of the colonization-extirpation patterns driven by climate warming.     

封闭垃圾填埋场通过地表向大气释放汞的测定

利用动力学通量箱及自动测汞仪联用技术,于2004年3月中旬对贵阳市的一座封闭生活垃圾填埋场汞通过地表向大气释放的过程进行了研究。3个采样点的汞释放通量日均值分别为559.1、88.2、53.6ng·m-2·h-1,汞释放通量强度与表层基质中的汞含量密切相关,该测定值高于世界背景地区通量的1~2个数量级,说明封闭垃圾填埋场也是大气汞的潜在来源。汞释放通量呈现明显的昼夜变化规律,白天较高并在午间前后达到最大,而夜间降至最低。气相因子中光照强度与汞的释放过程相关性最高,其次分别是气温、相对湿度、地温和风速。氧化态汞的光致还原作用是可能垃圾填埋场Hg0生成的主要途径,降雨初期能促进地表汞的释放。     

锅炉温控炉拱的设计及燃烧技术性能

论述了将小型链条炉排工业锅炉的炉拱设计成在运行中可以全量调节的结构,以适应燃用多种煤种的需要,并减少与固定拱操作有关的意外伤亡事故。这项技术有创新性,适用性和推广价值