宁波市秋冬季大气能见度特征及影响因素分析

针对宁波市大气能见度的观测研究表明,宁波市秋冬季大气能见度均值为11.6 km,霾日发生率为31.6%,霾日的能见度均值为6.6 km,且PM_(2.5)质量浓度在100~120μg/m3范围内的频率最高。能见度随着PM_(2.5)浓度增大呈指数下降,且相同的PM_(2.5)浓度情况下,相对湿度越大,能见度越低。能见度为10 km的临界点上,PM_(2.5)质量浓度值对应为67.5μg/m3。不同相对湿度时,能见度为10 km对应的PM_(2.5)质量浓度临界值不同。通过建立能见度回归方程发现,低相对湿度(RH≤30%)时,PM_(2.5)对能见度的影响权重最大;高相对湿度(RH60%)时,相对湿度的权重最大;RH低于60%时,RH的权重随着PM_(2.5)浓度的增加而增大;而RH高于60%时,RH的权重随着PM_(2.5)浓度的增加而减小。分析结果可为宁波市灰霾防治和采取合适的管控措施提高能见度提供一定参考。     

基于气象因子的PM_(2.5)回归预测模型研究

采用Pearson相关系数分析了2013—2016年3大典型城市北京、南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))与各气象因子的关系。结果表明,3个城市ρ(PM_(2.5))与各风速因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.29和-0.37,与各气温因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.33和-0.37,气压与南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,气压因子最大的相关系数分别为0.25和0.34,湿度与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,与广州ρ(PM_(2.5))负相关,湿度因子最大的相关系数分别为0.49和-0.36,日照时数与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数为-0.46,降水量与南京和广州ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数分别为-0.20和-0.24;采用逐步线性回归方法建立城市次日ρ(PM_(2.5))与气象因子的预测模型,复合相关系数分别为0.722 8,0.770 6和0.809 9。模型预测3个城市2016年PM_(2.5)年均值分别偏高4,5和3μg/m3,日均值平均相对误差为±45.6%,±32.9%和±26.0%,模型对高ρ(PM_(2.5))普遍低估。     

基于博弈论与可拓学的非正常接发列车人因风险评价

为更加准确且全面地对非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险进行评价,提出基于博弈论与可拓学的人因风险评价模型。在工作人员认知机理的基础上,构建认知行为模型,考虑到人因风险指标数据的特性,利用博弈论的思想将由AHP法得出的主观权重与由熵值法得到的客观权重进行最优组合,克服了单一赋权法的不足;引用可拓学原理,建立多级可拓评价模型,修正了风险评价的偏差,使人因风险评价更加准确。实例计算表明:此方法运用到铁路非正常条件下接发列车作业人因风险评价是有效的,且可为科学制订风险控制措施提供依据。     

Setting the stage for the review of the international estimate of short-term intake (IESTI) equation

ABSTRACT

In the framework of setting Maximum Residue Limits (MRLs) for pesticides, both chronic and acute health risks to consumers arising from the long-term and short-term dietary exposure to pesticide residues have to be assessed. The current internationally harmonized approach for assessing the acute dietary exposure is based on deterministic methods for calculating the IESTI (International Estimate of Short-Term Intake). Recently, it became apparent that the IESTI approach needs a revision in the light of new scientific and political aspects. The main reasons that require this review were the lack of an international harmonization of the methodology which implies trade barriers as well as difficulties in risk communication concerning the public trust in regulatory systems. The most recent milestone in the scientific debate on a possible revision of the IESTI equation was an international scientific workshop held in Geneva in September 2015. The main objectives of this meeting were the re-evaluation, and where possible, the international harmonization of the input parameters for the IESTI equations as well as the equations themselves. The main recommendations from the workshop were (i) to replace the highest residue and supervised trials median residue with the maximum residue limit (MRL), (ii) to use a standard variability factor of three, (iii) to derive the P97.5 large portion value from the distribution of consumption values of dietary surveys expressed as kg food/kg bw/d, and (iv) to remove the commodity unit weight from the equations. In addition, the application of conversion factors and processing factors was addressed. On the initiative of the (World Health Organization) WHO Collaborating Centre on Chemical Food Safety at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), the Netherlands, an international working group with members from the French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety, France (ANSES), Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority, Australia (APVMA), German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment, Germany (BfR), Chemical Regulation Division, the United Kingdom (CRD), European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), and RIVM, the Netherlands was formed after the IESTI workshop to conduct a comprehensive impact assessment of the proposed changes of the IESTI equations.     

苏皖交界河网区浮游植物群落结构及其与环境因子关系的研究

苏皖交界处的石臼湖是长江下游唯一的通江淡水湖,通过青弋江和姑溪河直接与长江相连,形成了复杂的河网水系。为探讨这种复杂的河网水系中浮游植物种群结构特征,2012年平水期和枯水期分别对石臼湖及其周边入湖支流进行了浮游植物调查,研究河网水系中河网与湖区浮游植物的种类组成、季节变化及与环境因子的关系。结果显示:共采集到浮游植物105种,平水期与枯水期种类数差别不大,两次调查均出现的种类约有70%相同;浮游植物丰度最高可达1×108cell/L,达到了水华暴发的标准。优势种类主要绿藻门和蓝藻门为主,但是从生物量来看硅藻门占优。排序分析显示河网区域浮游植物季节演替明显,且河网与湖区浮游植物群落结构差异明显,进一步分析则表明影响浮游植物主要的环境因子是氮、磷等营养元素。     

阳澄西湖叶绿素a的时空分布及其与环境因子的关系

根据2015年3月~2016年2月对阳澄西湖水体叶绿素a和水质理化因子的逐月监测结果表明,阳澄西湖叶绿素a浓度存在着明显的季节变化,其全年变化范围为11.93μg/L~66.67μg/L,平均值为27.54μg/L±20.34μg/L。最小值出现在2016年1月,最大值出现在2015年8月。叶绿素a在空间分布上也存在着差异,叶绿素a在断面Ⅰ浓度最高,其次是断面Ⅱ和断面Ⅳ,断面Ⅲ最低。根据综合营养状态指数法计算阳澄西湖营养状态,得出综合营养状态指数范围为50.7~59.3,年平均值为55.6,水体总体处于"轻度富营养"状态。综合pearson相关系数和逐步回归方程,结果表明叶绿素a与水温呈极显著正相关,与溶解氧呈极显著负相关,与透明度呈极显著负相关。结合生产实践对阳澄西湖总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)和氮磷比(N/P)取对数进行pearson相关性分析并建立一元线性回归方程,结果表明叶绿素a浓度与总氮无相关关系,与总磷呈极显著正相关,与氮磷比呈极显著负相关,阳澄西湖可能是一定程度的磷限制湖泊。     

农地整理项目治理绩效及影响因素研究——以浙江省48个国投项目为例

从农村土地整理的内涵及现实情境出发构建投入产出绩效评价指标体系,运用DEA方法对浙江省已竣工验收的48个国家投资土地整理项目效率水平进行测度,借此深入分析农村土地整理项目的治理绩效以及影响因素,旨在为改善我国农村土地整理项目治理绩效研究提供新的理论与方法。研究结果显示:(1)浙江省48个国家投资项目的综合效率均值为0.851、技术效率均值为0.903、规模效率均值为0.936,说明项目总体治理绩效较好,但项目之间的差异比较明显;(2)超效率分析发现,杭州北部、宁波南部和温州东南部等自然和社会条件较好地区的项目绩效水平较高,衢州西部和奉化西南等丘陵地区绩效水平较低;(3)影响因素分析发现,生态防护林种植数量、灌溉渠系长度、土地平整土方量、田间道路长度等工程投入过量,作物总产值增加量、单位面积涉及人口数、植被覆盖率等产出不足是导致绩效不高的主要原因;(4)DEA分析法是一种有效的治理绩效分析法,有助于从技术改进和规模调整角度来理解农村土地整理项目治理绩效内涵。根据结论,提出应该从生产技术上增强项目投入产出的转化能力,以改善绩效水平。     

基于GIS和RUSLE模型的万州区土壤保持服务功能空间分布特征

土壤保持服务是重要的生态系统服务之一,代表生态系统对土壤侵蚀所起到的削减和改善作用。以万州为研究区,基于GIS平台和修正通用土壤流失方程(RUSLE),运用降雨、DEM等数据建模,探讨万州区土壤保持服务功能的空间分布特征并分析其影响因素。结果显示:(1)万州区土壤保持总量为1 435.84×10~5t/a,单位面积年均土壤保持量为417.91 t/(hm~2·a),具有较高的土壤保持服务功能重要性;(2)土壤保持服务空间分布受地形和人类活动等的显著影响,东南部山地区域较高,而铁峰山与方斗山之间的长江河谷较低,其空间分布特征与土壤侵蚀的分布状况大致相反;(3)坡度角度,15°~25°坡度区产沙量最大占全区的41.56%,8°~15°区域次之,这两个坡度区人地矛盾最为集中;土地利用类型中,旱地侵蚀最为强烈,而林地侵蚀微弱并表现出很高的土壤保持服务功能。研究结果对万州乃至整个三峡库区的水土保持工作有借鉴意义。     

Using virtual environments to improve the realism of choice experiments: A case study about coastal erosion management

Choice experiment surveys are commonly used to assess the general public׳s willingness to pay for different levels of environmental quality. However, respondents need to understand what they are valuing or they will make potentially wrong assumptions based on different experiences and frames of reference. Three-dimensional computer generated models or Virtual Environments (VE) have so far seen little use in economics research, probably due to the complexity and cost of developing and delivering them to study participants. The few studies that have used them find that VE are superior to static image presentations in helping people evaluate complex data. For this study we developed virtual environments for a choice experiment about coastal erosion management using free, easy-to-use software and Google Earth© satellite imagery and presented these to respondents as video tours. Our results indicate that the VE treatment reduced choice error, reduced left-right bias and improved respondent engagement and retention when compared with static images. There were also differences in WTP between the two groups.     

外源Mo降低As(III)和As(V)对水稻的毒性及As的积累

通过溶液培养试验,研究外源添加Mo对2种价态砷(As(III)和As(V))胁迫下水稻吸收积累Mo和As的影响。结果表明,这2种价态的As对水稻生长均有抑制作用,As(III)比As(V)对水稻毒害更明显,添加Mo可缓解As对水稻的毒害。As添加可影响水稻根系和茎叶对Mo的吸收积累,但是不同价态As对Mo积累量的影响不一致。同时,Mo的添加也可以显著地降低水稻根系和茎叶对2个价态As的吸收积累。在100 μmol?L^-1 As(III)处理下,添加0.1和0.5 mg?L^-1的Mo可导致水稻根系As积累量分别比对照处理降低38.8%和52.8%,茎叶As积累量分别降低5.1%和10.6%;当As(V)浓度为100 μmol?L^-1时,添加0.1和0.5 mg?L^-1的Mo可导致水稻根系As积累量分别比对照处理降低15.4%和62.4%,茎叶As积累量分别降低11.9%和23.7%。Mo的添加还能显著地降低2种价态As在水稻根系和茎叶中的富集系数。因此,通过施用适量的Mo肥可以用来防治农田As污染,降低As对人体健康的危害。