A new method for predicting vegetation distributions using decision tree analysis in a geographic information system

Decision tree analysis was used to predict the distribution of forest communities in an area on the south coast of New South Wales, Australia. The analysis was carried out using a geographical information system environmental data base of those topographic and geological variables thought to influence the distribution of vegetation and derived from cartographic sources. The resulting maps of forest communities are of a resolution sufficient to delimit individual forest stands and contain much ecological information.     

库区移民新城滑坡灾害危险性区划研究

三峡库区地质灾害发育,已威胁到移民新城的城市规划与地方经济的发展。为解决这一问题,论文以巴东县新城区为研究对象,分析了滑坡的发育特征,开展滑坡灾害危险性区划研究,以MAPGIS软件为平台,根据斜坡坡向和斜坡坡度将全区共划分成223个不规则单元,采用层次分析方法构建评价指标体系,在得到信息量预测模型的基础上,对各影响因素...     

基于调节聚焦理论的生物农药推广有效性研究

化学农药在提高单位耕地面积农产品产量和效益的同时,由于过量施用、利用效率低下等污染了生态环境、危害农产品安全和损害消费者健康等问题,而具有低残留、低污染和环境友好性优势的生物农药逐渐得到公共部门和业界的重视。但生物农药能否得到大范围推广和施用,关键在于能否改变农户的农药施用行为和农药生产企业的积极参与。由于生物农药施用涉及农户的当前利益和长期利益、个人利益和社会利益等相关因素,使农户的农药施用决策具有突出的心理距离属性。本文引入调节聚焦理论,建立了心理距离与农户农药施用决策和心理动机的关系,实证研究生物农药推广对农户农药施用决策、支付愿意(WTP)、农药生产企业态度和再次施用意愿的影响。结论如下:1施用生物农药给农户带来的收益是长期的、全社会的和不确定的,而多数农户农药施用决策所考虑的利益是当前的、私人的。因此,二者在心理距离、调节聚焦以及利益追求方面是不匹配的,这揭示了当前生物农药推广过程中出现的叫好不叫座的原因;2农药生产企业能够从生物农药推广中获利。如果生物农药推广得当,将会提高农户对生物农药以及农药生产企业的积极评价,其对生物农药的愿意支付价格和再次施用意愿也会提升;3调节聚集信息诉求和心理距离的匹配,对农户生物农药施用决策存在显著影响。当预防(或促进)聚焦信息诉求与近(或远)心理距离匹配时,农户对生物农药信息诉求的认同度较高,施用意愿也更高。因此,要提高生物农药的推广效果,针对农户农药施用决策具有近心理距离的特点,公共部门及农药生产企业在推广生物农药时应该强化预防聚焦信息,而弱化促进聚焦信息;此外,生物农药推广过程中,公共部门及农药生产企业也可以通过宣传策略,延长农户农药施用决策时的心理距离与改善生态环境的促进聚焦目标相匹配,从而提高农户施用生物农药的积极性。     

MapObjects在城市道路交通噪声管理中的应用

从Visual Basic控件技术出发，介绍了建立在对象链接与嵌入技术基础上由美国ESRI公司的采用GIS控件MapObjects的运行机制及特点。结合该控件在城市道路交通噪声信息管理系统开发中的应用，对系统的建设目标、结构及开发模式做了介绍；以对北京市道路交通噪声信息管理系统的开发为例，对系统的功能作了简要说明。     

防洪救灾遥感信息系统的研制与应用

为防洪救灾及科研领域的应用,由中科院、水利部等共同研制了防洪救灾遥感信息系统,由信息获取、信息传输、信息处理三部分组成,具有全天候工作、图象实时传输、灵活机动、覆盖面积大、快速评估等功能,在1994年、1995年、1996年的防洪振灾中发挥了重大作用。     

粗糙集理论在震害预测中的应用

知识约简是粗糙集理论的核心问题。首次尝试将这一概念用于建筑物震害预测工作中，结合震害预测工作的实际，提出了一种基于属性重要性的近似相对约简算法，并通过实例验证了其可行性。所述研究具有理论和现实意义，对今后进行有关抗震防灾工作具有很好的应用价值，并为开展震害预测工作提供了新的研究思路和手段。     

Environmental Security: A Geographic Information System Analysis Approach—The Case of Kenya

Studies into the relationships between environmental factors and violence or conflicts constitute a very debated research field called environmental security. Several authors think that environmental scarcity, which is scarcity of renewable resources, can contribute to generate violence or social unrest, particularly within states scarcely endowed with technical know-how and social structures, such as developing countries. In this work, we referred to the theoretical model developed by the Environmental Change and Acute Conflict Project. Our goal was to use easily available spatial databases to map the various sources of environmental scarcity through geographic information systems, in order to locate the areas apparently most at risk of suffering negative social effects and their consequences in terms of internal security. The analysis was carried out at a subnational level and applied to the case of Kenya. A first phase of the work included a careful selection of databases relative to renewable resources. Spatial operations among these data allowed us to obtain new information on the availability of renewable resources (cropland, forests, water), on the present and foreseen demographic pressure, as well as on the social and technical ingenuity. The results made it possible to identify areas suffering from scarcity of one or more renewable resources, indicating different levels of gravity. Accounts from Kenya seem to confirm our results, reporting clashes between tribal groups over the access to scarce resources in areas that our work showed to be at high risk.     

Subhabitat selection by foraging threespine stickleback (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gasterosteus aculeatus</Emphasis>): previous experience and social conformity

Any mechanism that allows animals to increase their foraging efficiency is likely to be selected for, including the ability to learn to recognise and subsequently discriminate between habitat types based on their profitability. In a series of laboratory studies, we manipulated prey densities across two different experimental subhabitats and demonstrated that threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) can develop foraging preferences for subhabitats that have previously yielded prey. Fish were not recalling the spatial location of prey patches; rather, they were discriminating between subhabitats based on foraging experience there and allocating foraging effort accordingly. Foraging preferences took around 14 days to develop, and once established, they persisted independently of experimental prey density, suggesting that fish were using experience rather than real-time sampling to select foraging grounds. When we presented focal fish with social information cues, we found that they preferentially used local enhancement and current public information cues when they conflicted with previous experience, but that they did not use prior public information. This suggests that in the presence of conspecifics, individuals prioritise social conformity over the use of private information. We discuss our results in the context of optimal foraging and the trade-offs associated with balancing conflicting private and social information.     

地震前兆资料减灾信息的综合开发

近一、二十年建立起来的地震前兆观测台网,不仅为地震预测预报提供了大量科学数据,而且蕴藏着丰富的减灾信息,有待我们去开发。综合观测、综合分析和综合预报是防灾减灾的必由之路。