Treating design uncertainty in the application of Eco-indicator 99 with Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy intervals

In incremental eco-design improvements, design engineers attempt to modify an existing product via some eco-design measures to reduce the product’s environmental impacts (e.g. reduction of material usage and energy consumption). In this process, several design concepts can be proposed, and concept selection is required to allocate resources sensibly to promising design concepts only. In this context, the research purpose is to estimate the environmental impacts of each concept given the uncertainty of design information. In the proposed methodology, the fuzzy interval arithmetic is used to specify and propagate imprecise design information. Then, the centroid concept is applied to model different views of imprecision (i.e. pessimistic, balanced and optimistic) associated with fuzzy impact assessment. Accordingly, a decision scheme is developed to support concept selection and suggest the potential areas for further eco-design improvements. A coffee maker is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Also, the Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for the same example to compare the numerical outcomes by the fuzzy interval approach.     

Concentration and dissipation of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam residues in maize straw,maize, and soil

To study the dissipation rates and final residual levels of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam in maize straw, maize, and soil, two independent field trials were conducted during the 2014 cropping season in Beijing and Anhui Provinces of China. A 40% wettable powder (20% chlorantraniliprole?+?20% thiamethoxam) was sprayed onto maize straw and soil at an application rate of 118 g of active ingredient per hectare (g a.i.ha^?1). The residual concentrations were determined by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The chlorantraniliprole half-lives in maize straw and soil were 9.0–10.8 and 9.5–21.7 days, respectively. The thiamethoxam half-lives in maize straw and soil were 8.4–9.8 and 4.3–11.7 days, respectively. The final residues of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam in maize straw, maize, and soil were measured after the pesticides had been sprayed two and three times with an interval of 7 days using 1 and 1.5 times the recommended rate (72 g a.i. ha^?1 and 108 g a.i. ha^?1, respectively). Representative maize straw, maize, and soil samples were collected after the last treatment at pre-harvest intervals of 7, 14, and 28 days. The chlorantraniliprole residue was below 0.01 mg kg^?1 in maize, between 0.01 and 0.31 mg kg^?1 in maize straw, and between 0.03 and 1.91 mg kg^?1 in soil. The thiamethoxam residue concentrations in maize, maize straw, and soil were <0.01, <0.01, and 0.01–0.03 mg kg^?1, respectively. The final pesticide residues on maize were lower than the maximum residue limit (MRL) of 0.02 mg kg^?1 after a 14-day pre-harvest interval. Therefore, a dosage of 72 g a.i. ha^?1 was recommended, as it can be considered safe to human beings and animals.     

基于区间方法的岩质边坡稳定性非概率可靠性分析

在综合分析岩土参数区间性的基础上,通过引入区间分析方法和非概率可靠性思想,建立岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性模型,并针对区间运算结果扩张问题,引入区间截断法和区间优化法,对边坡非概率可靠性指标进行较为精确的求解。然后,以湖北某岩质高边坡为实例,进一步探讨了岩体参数变异性对岩质边坡稳定的非概率可靠性指标的影响规律。     

The short-term effects of air pollution on adolescent lung function in Taiwan

A mass screening of lung function associated with air pollutants for children is limited. This study assessed the association between air pollutants exposure and the lung function of junior high school students in a mass screening program in Taipei city, Taiwan. Among 10,396 students with completed asthma screening questionnaires and anthropometric measures, 2919 students aged 12-16 received the spirometry test. Forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory flow in 1 s (FEV₁) in association with daily ambient concentrations of particulate matter with diameter of 10 μm or less (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and ozone (O₃) were assessed by regression models controlling for the age, gender, height, weight, student living districts, rainfall and temperature. FVC, had a significant negative association with short-term exposure to O₃ and PM₁₀ measured on the day of spirometry testing. FVC values also were reversely associated with means of SO₂, O₃, NO₂, PM₁₀ and CO exposed 1 d earlier. An increase of 1-ppm CO was associated with the reduction in FVC for 69.8 mL (95% CI: −115, −24.4 mL) or in FEV₁ for 73.7 mL (95% CI: −118, −29.7 mL). An increase in SO₂ for 1 ppb was associated with the reductions in FVC and FEV₁ for 12.9 mL (95% CI: −20.7, −5.09 mL) and 11.7 mL (95% CI: −19.3, −4.16 mL), respectively. In conclusion, the short-term exposure to O₃ and PM₁₀ was associated with reducing FVC and FEV₁. CO and SO₂ exposure had a strong 1-d lag effect on FVC and FEV₁.     

基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd的采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价模型及应用

为了能够对煤矿采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行准确判定,提出基于IIAHP-Entropy-ssd最优综合赋权模糊评价模型。首先,结合影响采空区遗煤的自燃性及环境影响因素,建立危险性评价指标体系,并确定各评价指标的分级准则;其次,利用区间数代替数值评价打分,并运用可能度互补矩阵进行修正的改进区间数层次分析法（IIAHP）,结合熵权法（Entropy）,根据现场实测数据,得出各评价指标的主、客观权重,并运用离差平方和（ssd）的最大化思想进行最优综合赋权,克服评价过程中主、客观因素对评价结果的影响,运用属性数学理论,建立各评价指标的隶属函数;最后,运用该模型对忻州窑矿8914综放工作面采空区遗煤自燃危险性进行评价,并与现场实际情况进行对比,结果表明:该模型的评价结果与实际情况基本一致,验证了该评价模型的准确性,为采空区遗煤自燃危险性评价提供参考和借鉴思路。     

基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型

在贝叶斯水质评价模型中引入区间数表示污染物浓度,采用区间排序法对水质评价结果进行比较,建立了区间型贝叶斯湖泊水质评价模型。同时将该模型应用于某湖泊的5个采样点进行水质监测及评价,结果显示,5个采样点水质逐渐变差,均为劣V类。基于区间型贝叶斯的湖泊水质评价模型更加直观地表示了同类水质采样点的水质差别,避免了传统方法中主观因素的影响,为属于同类别水质的采样点排序提供了评价依据。     

碳电极直径与负载特性对故障电弧断路器响应时间影响研究

为解决故障电弧断路器动作响应滞后、效率低等问题,基于电气火灾多发原因与防控实验装置、功率因素可调式负载柜,搭建故障电弧模拟实验台,研究故障电弧断路器响应时间影响因素,利用功率分析仪统计断路器响应时间。研究结果表明：纯电阻电路中,断路器响应时间随碳电极直径增大而缩短;在负载功率P=800,2 000 W条件下,碳电极直径D≥2 mm时,断路器瞬时保护率达100%;负载功率P=3 200 W时,断路器瞬时保护率小于50%;碳电极直径D为1,2 mm时,断路器最佳负载功率保护区间分别为[1 200,1 600] W,[800,2 400] W,碳电极直径为2 mm的保护区间范围较宽,安全可靠性更高;感性电路中,断路器响应时间随功率因数减小而延迟,功率因数对断路器动作响应时间的影响随负载功率增加而降低。研究结果可为故障电弧断路器响应时间的设定提供参考。     

利用概率单位法估算EC50的研究（Estimation of Probit Methods on EC50）

以两组典型毒性数据为例,综合比较了5种常见概率单位模型计算程序在EC50估算上的差异,并在此基础上比较了3种不同置信区间的估算方法.在对照组受抑制率为零时,5种方法的参数估算结果一致;当对照组受抑制率不为零时,将对照组数据纳入整个计算过程的方法可以给出可靠的参数估算结果.3种不同置信区间估算方法的比较表明:在毒性数据分布对称性良好的情况下,基于Delta函数与Fieller定理的方法给出的结果相近,但后者可以在更广泛的情况下给出置信区间;相比而言,基于bootstrap重抽样的非参数方法获得的置信区间较窄,表现出更好的灵敏度.     

BANKFULL DISCHARGE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND REGIONAL HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS: PATTERNS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,USA1

ABSTRACT: The model bankfull discharge recurrence interval (annual series) (T_a) in streams has been approximated at a 1.5‐year flow event. This study tests the linkage between regional factors (climate, physiography, and ecoregion) and the frequency of bank‐full discharge events in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Patterns of Ta were found to be significant when stratified by EPA Ecoregion. The mean value for T_a in the PNW is 1.4 years; however, when the data is stratified by ecoregion, the humid areas of western Oregon and Washington have a mean value of 1.2 years, while the dryer areas of Idaho and eastern Oregon and Washington have a mean value of 1.4 to 1.5 years. Among the four factors evaluated, vegetation association and average annual precipitation are the primary factors related to channel form and T_a. Based on the results of the T_a analyses, regional hydraulic geometry relationships of streams were developed for the PNW, which relate variables, such as bank‐full cross‐sectional area, width, depth, and velocity, to bankfull discharge and drainage area. The verification of T_a values, combined with the development of regional hydraulic geometry relationships, provides geographically relevant information that will result in more accurate estimates of hydraulic geometry variables in the PNW.     

液冷电子吊舱温度环境测试研究

目的 为液冷电子吊舱热管理系统设计、可靠性预计提供实测数据支撑.方法 在液冷电子吊舱搭载航空平台,通过采集不同季节、不同飞行工况下电子吊舱内部的温度数据,获取舱内温度环境参数.结果 在统计工况范围内,引气温度的波动范围为?30～54℃,出现在0～30℃的概率为80.8％,而供液温度的波动范围为?5～46℃,出现在10～...