Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves1

Haucke, Jessica and Katherine A. Clancy, 2011. Stationarity of Streamflow Records and Their Influence on Bankfull Regional Curves. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 47(6):1338–1347. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752‐1688.2011.00590.x Abstract: Bankfull regional curves, which are curves that establish relationships among channel morphology, discharge, drainage area, are used extensively for stream restoration. These curves are developed upon the assumption that streamflows maintain stationarity over the entire record. We examined this assumption in the Driftless Area of southwestern Wisconsin where agricultural soil retention practices have changed, and precipitation has increased since the 1970s. We developed a bankfull regional curve for this area using field surveys of bankfull channel performed during 2008‐2009 and annual series of peak streamflows for 10 rivers with streamflow records ranging from the 1930s to 2009. We found bankfull flows to correlate to a 1.1 return period. To evaluate gage data statistics, we used the sign test to compare our channel morphology to historic 1.5 return period discharge (Q_1.5) for five time periods: 1959‐1972, 1973‐1992, 1993‐2008, 1999‐2008, and the 1959‐2008 period of record. Analysis of the historic gage data indicated that there has been a more than 30% decline in Q_1.5 since 1959. Our research suggests that land conservation practices may have a larger impact on gaging station stationarity than annual precipitation changes do. Additionally, historic peak flow data from gages, which have records that span land conservation changes, may need to be truncated to represent current flow regimes.     

Functioning of a Multispecies Haul-out of True Seals (Phocidae) in the Oil Production Region on the Shelf of Sakhalin Island

The results of observation of a seal haul-out at the mouth of Piltun Bay on the northeastern Sakhalin coast conducted from 1997 to 2001 are reported. The species composition and spatial structure of the seal haul-out have been studied. The haul-out community is dominated by the largha seal, which is more numerous than the ringed seal and bearded seal throughout the ice-free period. The characteristics of annual, seasonal, and daily variation in the numbers have been estimated, and their mechanisms have been determined. To date, the development of oil deposits on the northeastern Sakhalin shelf has had no negative effect on seals.     

Comparisons of the film peeling from the composite oxides of quartz sand filters using ozone, hydrogen peroxide and chlorine dioxide

To solve the problem of shortened backwashing intervals in groundwater plants, several disinfectants including ozone (O₃), hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂) and chlorine dioxide (ClO₂) were examined to peel off the film from the quartz sand surface in four pilot-scale columns. An optimized oxidant dosage and oxidation time were determined by batch tests. Subsequently, the optimized conditions were tested in the four pilot-scale columns. The results demonstrated that the backwashing intervals increased from 35.17 to 54.33 (H₂O₂) and to 53.67 hr (ClO₂) after the oxidation treatments, and the increase of backwashing interval after treatment by O₃ was much less than for the other two treatments. Interestingly, the treatment efficiency of filters was not affected by O₃ or H₂O₂ oxidation; but after oxidation by ClO₂, the treatment efficiency was deteriorated, especially the ammonia removal (from 96.96% to 24.95%). The filter sands before and after the oxidation were characterized by scanning electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Compared with the oxidation by O₃ and H₂O₂, the structures on the surface of filter sands were seriously damaged after oxidation by ClO₂. The chemical states of manganese on the surfaces of those treated sands were only changed by ClO₂. The damage of the structures and the change of the chemical states of manganese might have a negative effect on the ammonia removal. In summary, H₂O₂ is a suitable agent for film peeling.     

基于信息扩散与自助法的旱灾风险评估模型──以安徽为例

旱灾风险管理是抗旱减灾的科学手段、干旱及旱灾研究的重要方向,定量评估旱灾风险是旱灾风险管理的核心内容。为降低各种不确定性因素影响下旱灾风险评估结果的误差,提高结果的可靠性,提出运用信息扩散法估计旱灾损失的超越概率,结合自助法的区间估计算法,建立基于信息扩散与自助法的灾害风险评估模型,用不同置信水平下旱灾损失对应超越概率的置信区间来反映旱灾风险。将该模型运用于安徽省农业易旱地区干旱灾害风险评估,计算并确定在置信水平为0.75时安徽省易旱地区的旱灾风险区间评估结果合理、可靠,可为抗旱规划提供科学的决策依据。     

湖泊水体富营养化评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型

根据湖泊水环境系统的不确定性,建立了基于随机模拟和三角模糊数的湖泊水体富营养化评价耦合模型,采用三角模糊数表征各营养因子监测值,运用随机模拟方法模拟三角模糊数,得到各变量的随机模拟序列,由综合营养状态指数法确定湖泊的营养等级概率水平。以宁夏沙湖为例,运用此耦合模型对水体的富营养化程度进行评价。结果表明:该方法将水体富营养评价中水环境状态的不确定性以确定性方法融入评价模型,直观表征了水体在各营养状态隶属度的复杂性,评价结果更加全面、合理。     

Demographic Characteristics of Extinction in a Small, Insular Population of House Sparrows in Northern Norway

Abstract:  In conservation ecology there is an urgent need for indicators that can be used to predict the risk of extinction of populations. Identifying extinction-prone populations has been difficult because few data sets on the demographic characteristics of the final stage to extinction are available and because of problems in separating out stochastic effects from changes in the expected dynamics. We documented the demographic changes that occurred during the period prior to extinction of a small island population of House Sparrows ( Passer domesticus ) after the end of permanent human settlement. A mark-recapture analysis revealed that this decline to extinction was mainly due to increased mortality after closure of the last farm that resulted in a negative long-term-specific growth rate. No change occurred in either the structural composition (breeding sex ratio and age distribution) of the population or in female recruitment. No male, however, recruits were produced on the island after the farm closure. Based on a simple, stochastic, density-dependent model we constructed a population prediction interval (PPI) to estimate the time to extinction. The 95% PPI slightly overestimated the time to extinction with large uncertainty in predictions, especially due to the influence of demographic stochasticity and parameter drift. Our results strongly emphasize the importance of access to data on temporal variation that can be used to parameterize simple population models that allow estimation of critical parameters for credible prediction of time to extinction.     

A COMPUTERIZED DATA BASE FOR FLOOD PREDICTION MODELING1

ABSTRACT: A computerized geographic information system (GIS) was created in support of data requirements by a hydrologic model designed to predict the runoff hydrograph from ungaged basins. Some geomorphologic characteristics (i.e., channel lengths) were manually measured from topographic maps, while other parameters such as drainage area and number of channels of a specified order, land use, and soil type were digitized and manipulated through use of the GIS. The model required the generation of an integrated Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number for the entire basin. To this end, soil associations and land use (generated from analysis of Landsat satellite data) were merged in the GIS to acquire a map representing SCS runoff curve numbers. The volume of runoff obtained from the Watershed Hydrology Simulation (WAHS) Model using this map was compared to the volume computed by hydrograph separation and found to be accurate within 19 percent error. To quantify the effect of changing land use on basin hydrology, the GIS was used to vary percentages from the drainage area from forest to bare soil. By changing the basin runoff curve numbers, significant changes in peak discharge were noted; however, the time to peak discharge remained essentially independent of change in area of land use. The GIS capability eliminated many of the more traditional manual phases of data input arid manipulation, thereby allowing researchers to concentrate on the development and calibration of the model and the interpretation of presumably more accurate results.     

改进的遗传算法在城市污水处理厂区间数优化设计模型中的应用

对于高度非线性的城市污水处理厂区间数优化设计模型(IPODM),若采用传统的方法求解,不仅计算繁琐,且难以有效地寻找全局最优解.本文通过引入遗传算法(GA),与传统的步长搜索法相结合,大大提高了问题的求解效率.本文给出了这种改进算法在某一城市污水处理厂优化设计中的应用实例.结果表明,不仅解的搜索效率有明显的提高,而且目标函数值在原有的基础上改进了20%,有着显著的经济效益;但是由于遗传算法自身的局限性,所求得的解只是一定条件下的最优区间解.     

基于模型研究质量评价的SWAT模型参数取值特征分析

SWAT模型是目前我国应用最为广泛的流域水环境模型之一.由于该模型拥有分布式参数并且基于美国环境特征建立,确定合理的和符合我国流域环境特征的参数取值是模型应用中的关键工作.有研究通过总结现有报告的参数取值,为模型本地化应用提供参数取值参考,但这些研究忽略了其中SWAT模型研究质量之间的差异,也未考虑参数取值的非均匀性以及极端值的影响,因而研究结果的实用性不佳.建立了综合考虑模型建立、参数率定和验证、模拟效果的SWAT模型研究质量评价指标体系,对中国知网收录的2015~2017年发表的428篇SWAT模型研究文献开展定量评价并筛选高可信度文献.基于高可信度文献报告的SWAT模型参数取值,分析了15个涉及水文、泥沙和水质过程模拟的参数取值特征,包括参数取值分布特征及其在不同地理区域间的差异,以及参数率定值与默认值的偏差等.研究表明,在筛选得到的129篇高可信度文献中,SWAT模型应用整体上更加规范,且具有较好的区域代表性;15个模型参数在我国流域的取值分布具有正偏态、负偏态等不同特征,其中4个参数在我国不同地理区域的取值分布存在显著差异,12个参数在我国流域的取值明显偏离默认值.基于模型参数取值特征,以置信区间的形式给出了SWAT模型在我国本地化应用的参数取值建议,并针对不同数据条件下的模型应用提出了参数取值建议.     

螺旋群锚在岩土介质中极限抗拔力的试验分析及工程应用

通过室内模型试验 ,初步探讨了在砂土中当螺旋群锚的间距改变时 ,其受力性能的变化 ;通过试验及分析 ;提出了计算螺旋群锚在不同间距时的极限承载力公式 ;同时对螺旋锚在工程安全中的应用进行了分析