等维灰数递补动态模型在废水排放量预测中的应用研究

为了克服GM（1,1）预测模型的不足,提出了污染物排放量预测的等维灰数递补动态预测模型。考虑到用QB、C等语言编写程序比较繁杂,本文利用MATLAB软件编写了对应的计算程序,该程序简化了参数的求解过程并减少了程序量。通过对“十一五”期间安徽省工业和生活废水排放量预测的实际应用,验证了等维灰数递补动态预测模型在污染物排放量预测中应用的可行性。     

洪水等级的划分方法

分析了洪水要素的多样性和洪水的复杂性，提出了利用洪水重现期划分洪水安全度等级和利用标准面积洪峰流量划分洪峰标准等级的两种方法，并对1998年长江流域的洪水等级进行了简要分析。     

路基沉降的非等间隔时变离散灰色预测模型

本文分析了灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,并以离散GM(1,1)模型为基础建立了路基沉降的非等间隔时变离散灰色预测模型,该模型参数以最小二乘法估计,且以遗传算法优化初始值,通过工程实例与不同预测模型进行对比分析,结果表明非等间隔时变灰色预测模型的精度明显高于其他模型,且最能反映原始路基沉降数据的发展规律.     

熵权多目标决策-理想区间法在地下水环境质量综合评价中的应用

通过将多目标决策-理想区间法与熵值法相结合,建立了基于运用熵权来确定权重的多目标决策-理想区间法,应用一种新思路进行地下水环境质量综合评价。结果表明,该方法可以有效地解决地下水环境质量的优劣评价问题,且使评价过程大大简化,评价结果合理。     

利用概率单位法估算EC50的研究（Estimation of Probit Methods on EC50）

以两组典型毒性数据为例,综合比较了5种常见概率单位模型计算程序在EC50估算上的差异,并在此基础上比较了3种不同置信区间的估算方法.在对照组受抑制率为零时,5种方法的参数估算结果一致;当对照组受抑制率不为零时,将对照组数据纳入整个计算过程的方法可以给出可靠的参数估算结果.3种不同置信区间估算方法的比较表明:在毒性数据分布对称性良好的情况下,基于Delta函数与Fieller定理的方法给出的结果相近,但后者可以在更广泛的情况下给出置信区间;相比而言,基于bootstrap重抽样的非参数方法获得的置信区间较窄,表现出更好的灵敏度.     

A framework to estimate the risk-based shutdown interval for a processing plant

Petrochemical plants and refineries consist of hundreds of pieces of complex equipment and machinery that run under rigorous operating conditions and are subjected to deterioration over time due to aging, wear, corrosion, erosion, fatigue and other reasons. These devices operate under extreme operating pressures and temperatures, and any failure may result in huge financial consequences for the operating company. To minimize the risk and to maintain operational reliability and availability, companies adopt various maintenance strategies. Shutdown or turnaround maintenance is one such strategy. In general, shutdown for inspection and maintenance is based on the original equipment manufacturer's (OEM) suggested recommended periods. However, this may not be the most optimum strategy given that operating conditions may vary significantly from company to company.The framework proposed in this work estimates the risk-based shutdown interval for inspection and maintenance. It provides a tool for maintenance planning and decision making by considering the probability of the equipment or system for failure and the likely consequences that may follow. The novel risk-based approach is compared with the conventional fixed interval approach. This former approach, characterized as it is by optimized inspection, maintenance and risk management, leads to extended intervals between shutdowns. The result is the increase in production and the consequent income of millions of dollars.The proposed framework is a cost effective way to minimize the overall financial risk for asset inspection and maintenance while fulfilling safety and availability requirements.     

区间化AIS数据驱动的抵泊过程多维控制模型

为提高船舶靠泊安全,对接智能靠泊,实现船舶抵泊过程中的姿态控制,运用切比雪夫拟合法、95％置信度区间法、最小二乘法及上述组合方法的2次拟合等优化策略,拟合区间化船舶自动识别系统(AIS)数据中速度、航向、艏向和船位等靠泊控制参数,构建区间化AIS数据驱动的多维抵泊姿态控制模型,并采用某轮靠泊南京龙潭港一年的AIS数据测...     

BANKFULL DISCHARGE RECURRENCE INTERVALS AND REGIONAL HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS: PATTERNS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,USA1

ABSTRACT: The model bankfull discharge recurrence interval (annual series) (T_a) in streams has been approximated at a 1.5‐year flow event. This study tests the linkage between regional factors (climate, physiography, and ecoregion) and the frequency of bank‐full discharge events in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Patterns of Ta were found to be significant when stratified by EPA Ecoregion. The mean value for T_a in the PNW is 1.4 years; however, when the data is stratified by ecoregion, the humid areas of western Oregon and Washington have a mean value of 1.2 years, while the dryer areas of Idaho and eastern Oregon and Washington have a mean value of 1.4 to 1.5 years. Among the four factors evaluated, vegetation association and average annual precipitation are the primary factors related to channel form and T_a. Based on the results of the T_a analyses, regional hydraulic geometry relationships of streams were developed for the PNW, which relate variables, such as bank‐full cross‐sectional area, width, depth, and velocity, to bankfull discharge and drainage area. The verification of T_a values, combined with the development of regional hydraulic geometry relationships, provides geographically relevant information that will result in more accurate estimates of hydraulic geometry variables in the PNW.     

Treating design uncertainty in the application of Eco-indicator 99 with Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy intervals

In incremental eco-design improvements, design engineers attempt to modify an existing product via some eco-design measures to reduce the product’s environmental impacts (e.g. reduction of material usage and energy consumption). In this process, several design concepts can be proposed, and concept selection is required to allocate resources sensibly to promising design concepts only. In this context, the research purpose is to estimate the environmental impacts of each concept given the uncertainty of design information. In the proposed methodology, the fuzzy interval arithmetic is used to specify and propagate imprecise design information. Then, the centroid concept is applied to model different views of imprecision (i.e. pessimistic, balanced and optimistic) associated with fuzzy impact assessment. Accordingly, a decision scheme is developed to support concept selection and suggest the potential areas for further eco-design improvements. A coffee maker is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Also, the Monte Carlo Simulation is applied for the same example to compare the numerical outcomes by the fuzzy interval approach.     

Concentration and dissipation of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam residues in maize straw,maize, and soil

To study the dissipation rates and final residual levels of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam in maize straw, maize, and soil, two independent field trials were conducted during the 2014 cropping season in Beijing and Anhui Provinces of China. A 40% wettable powder (20% chlorantraniliprole?+?20% thiamethoxam) was sprayed onto maize straw and soil at an application rate of 118 g of active ingredient per hectare (g a.i.ha^?1). The residual concentrations were determined by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography–tandem mass spectrometry. The chlorantraniliprole half-lives in maize straw and soil were 9.0–10.8 and 9.5–21.7 days, respectively. The thiamethoxam half-lives in maize straw and soil were 8.4–9.8 and 4.3–11.7 days, respectively. The final residues of chlorantraniliprole and thiamethoxam in maize straw, maize, and soil were measured after the pesticides had been sprayed two and three times with an interval of 7 days using 1 and 1.5 times the recommended rate (72 g a.i. ha^?1 and 108 g a.i. ha^?1, respectively). Representative maize straw, maize, and soil samples were collected after the last treatment at pre-harvest intervals of 7, 14, and 28 days. The chlorantraniliprole residue was below 0.01 mg kg^?1 in maize, between 0.01 and 0.31 mg kg^?1 in maize straw, and between 0.03 and 1.91 mg kg^?1 in soil. The thiamethoxam residue concentrations in maize, maize straw, and soil were <0.01, <0.01, and 0.01–0.03 mg kg^?1, respectively. The final pesticide residues on maize were lower than the maximum residue limit (MRL) of 0.02 mg kg^?1 after a 14-day pre-harvest interval. Therefore, a dosage of 72 g a.i. ha^?1 was recommended, as it can be considered safe to human beings and animals.