Could Peace be Worse than War for Colombia's Forests?

The forests of Colombia are influenced by the actions of armed groups and, in many cases, their settlers are economically dependent on illicit crops. Up to the present armed conflict has simultaneously discouraged organized exploitation in some frontier areas, and encouraged unsustainable use of natural resources therein. The Colombian government seeks to end the conflict by pursuing peace negotiations, and to eradicate illicit crops. How will these policies affect the forests? The environmental consequences of these policies are not only dependent on the unlikely economic success of alternative development, but on making informed decisions about infrastructure development in affected areas.     

基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法研究

针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中的冲突问题,提出1种应急决策冲突程度的表示方法,将应急决策冲突定量表示出来。基于模糊逻辑理论对应急决策冲突进行模糊评价;通过构建“大多数”的模糊函数,确定冲突程度的表示路径;根据冲突与一致性的相对关系,对“一致性程度”的模糊函数进行改造,构建“冲突程度”的模糊函数,并通过冲突程度的计算过程,得到最终的冲突程度;结合应急决策冲突实际,划分冲突等级,并确定其取值范围。研究结果表明:基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法充分利用了应急决策专家的决策偏好信息,实现了应急决策冲突程度的定量表示。     

Green Lawfare: Environmental Public Interest Litigation and Mediatized Environmental Conflict

Communication strategies involving news media and environmental groups are well documented and research into protest politics and other forms of environmental communication has made considerable progress in the analysis of the strategies that various actors use to influence environmental policy. There is less scholarship, however, on the journalistic representation of the legal strategies employed by environmental non-government organizations, such as the mediatized debates about the use of law by these groups and the laws themselves. Further, while legal scholarship observes the role of public interest litigation in environmental matters, the role of news media as an influential force in public opinion formation and mobilization in the context of environmental litigation as an activist strategy remains less understood. Using the 2015 “green lawfare” debate in Australia that followed a successful Australian Federal Court challenge to a coalmine, this paper argues that the “mediatized visibility” inherent in public interest litigation is an important, but mostly overlooked, element of mediatized environmental conflict.     

Global warming is breeding social conflict: The subtle impact of climate change threat on authoritarian tendencies

Climate change can increase societies’ propensity to conflict by changes in socio-structural conditions (e.g., resource scarcity, migration). We propose an additional, subtle, and general effect of climate change threat via increases in authoritarian attitudes. Three studies in Germany and the UK support this suggestion. Reminding participants of the adverse consequences climate change may have for their country increased the derogation of societal groups that may threaten the collective (e.g., criminals) as well as general authoritarian attitudes. Salient climate change threats also led to system justification and approval of system supporting groups (e.g., judges) in those people who were highly identified with their nation. We discuss the implications of these findings for the explanation of authoritarian attitudes and the question of how societies may cope with the subtle social psychological effects of climate change.     

Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study1

Borisova, Tatiana, Laila Racevskis, and Jennison Kipp, 2012. Stakeholder Analysis of a Collaborative Watershed Management Process: A Florida Case Study. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 48(2): 277‐296. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00615.x Abstract: This study focuses on a Florida watershed where development of a total maximum daily load (TMDL) and its implementation plan resulted in conflicts among stakeholders. The overall goal is to build a better understanding of stakeholder perceptions of water quality problems, water policy processes and decisions, and water management plan development in a region where these issues have become contentious. Findings are based on a stakeholder analysis using qualitative data collected through focus groups with agricultural producers, local governments, and environmental groups, and supplemented with additional qualitative data on the watershed management process. Stakeholder conflicts in this case study are associated with perceived flaws in the structural and procedural characteristics of the stakeholder involvement process: (1) suboptimal watershed stakeholder representation on the TMDL executive committee, (2) an inappropriate voting procedure for making TMDL decisions, (3) limitations in information sharing between regulatory agencies and watershed stakeholders, and (4) stakeholders’ doubts about whether tradeoffs associated with achieving the water quality targets were assessed adequately throughout the TMDL planning and implementation process. This study contributes to the literature on collaborative watershed management by analyzing stakeholder involvement given Florida’s unique institutional settings, where implementation of TMDL pollution abatement is mandatory.     

基于F-H方法的冲突局势稳定性分析方法及其应用

冲突是一类普遍的社会现象,基于元对策的F-H冲突分析方法已经在水资源冲突管理领域得到了广泛的应用。在深入分析F-H方法原理的基础上,提出了一种考虑决策者对冲突问题预见能力的冲突局势稳定性分析方法,寻求冲突问题的均衡解。在局势稳定性分析过程中,当局中人基于个人预见水平不存在单方改进某可行局势的动机时,该局势对此局中人而言是稳定的。当全体局中人都认为某可行局势是稳定的,则此局势称为冲突问题的均衡点。最后,该方法被运用到湖北省宜昌市黄柏河流域水资源冲突问题中,模拟结果表明宜昌市水电局同时采取激励合作强化管理、东风渠灌区管理局增加引水、黄柏河流域管理局追求效益是最稳定的一种策略组合。提出的冲突局势稳定性分析为寻求冲突均衡提供了一种可行方法。     

基于分类交通冲突与微观仿真分析的城市交叉口安全诊断及改善

鉴于传统的城市交叉口交通冲突整体评价方法不能深入地分析和解决交叉口内部的交通安全问题,依据流量和相位时长关系确定分类交通冲突评价系数,计算出不同相位阶段中不同交通冲突类型(机-机、机-非、机-人)的交通冲突率和分类综合交通冲突率,从而比较和诊断交叉口内部危险性高的交通冲突类型及所在相位,并应用VISSIM仿真软件评估相应交通安全改善措施对路口交通效率的影响。以北京市光彩北路路口为对象进行实验分析,其结果表明,分类交通冲突技术与微观交通仿真分析的充分结合,可提高城市交叉口安全诊断的准确性及相应改善措施的有效性。     

Female resistance and male preference in a stream-dwelling isopod: effects of female molt characteristics

In the stream-dwelling isopod, Lirceus fontinalis, mating contests between males and females occur prior to pair formation. We examined the relative contribution of male preference and female resistance to contest outcomes. We first quantified male and female behavior during typical mating interactions and examined the relationship between time until molt (TTM) and mating outcomes. We then examined the role of male preference and female resistance in determining mating outcomes when females differed in molt type (growth, egg deposition) and appeared to differ in TTM (due to hormone applications). Both male preference and female resistance contributed to different components of the mating sequence but female resistance ultimately determined whether or not pair formation occurred. Males expressed a preference for females that appeared to be close to molt, using variation in levels of molt hormone as a cue. However, males did not discriminate between females based on molt type. Received: 5 March 1999 / Received in revised form: 10 August 1999 / Accepted: 16 October 1999     

Female-biased immigration and male peace-keeping in groups of the shell-dwelling cichlid fish Neolamprologus multifasciatus

The small cichlid fish Neolamprologus multifasciatus is endemic to Lake Tanganyika and is unique among fish because it lives in complex social groups with several reproductive males and females, all of which participate in defending their territory against neighbors and intruders. Individuals use empty snail shells for breeding and shelter. Previous parentage analysis using microsatellites suggested occasional exchange of individuals between groups. In field experiments, we found that females showed a higher tendency than males to migrate into territories already occupied by a resident pair. The phenomenon and causes of female-biased immigration were further investigated in aquarium experiments: Nine of 15 females, but only 2 of 15 equally sized males, settled in territories of established pairs. Territorial males exhibited more aggression toward strange males (potential reproductive competitors) than toward strange females (potential additional mates); their females were more aggressive toward strange females (probably competitors for shells) than toward strange males. Apparently, a conflict exists between the sexes regarding the immigration of additional females. This conflict seems to be the selective basis for observed active male interference in aggressive disputes between females in the territory. Interfemale tolerance in a group was greater in the male’s presence than in his absence. Received: 1 February 2000 / Received in revised form: 2 May 2000 / Accepted: 5 May 2000     

Understanding conflicting cultural models of outdoor cats to overcome conservation impasse

Many conservation conflicts are scientifically complex yet are rooted in value conflicts, which result in an impasse. Additional biological information alone is insufficient to resolve this type of conflict. Conceptual models that articulate the material aspects of a system are increasingly used to identify areas where parties disagree. Yet, modeling processes typically follow the conveners’ rules for discussing and assessing the topic, which can exacerbate conflict. Researchers have identified a need for processes that require participants to reflect on the limits of their own philosophical assumptions and acknowledge other perspectives. Cultural models are a promising tool for this purpose because they include nonmaterial beliefs, morals, and values that guide people's understanding of how to interact with an issue, sometimes subconsciously. We explored how cultural models used with conceptual models can improve understanding of value conflicts and used outdoor cat management as a case study. We conducted interviews and focus group discussions with wildlife conservation and cat welfare professionals involved in outdoor cat policy discussions in Hawaii and Washington, D.C. From these conversations, we developed a conceptual model of the outdoor cat management system and cultural models that led stakeholders to weigh elements of the conceptual model differently. Although wildlife conservation professionals generally spoke about outdoor cats as invasive species, cat welfare professionals spoke about them as homeless pets. These conflicting conceptualizations of what an outdoor cat is may help explain the root of many long-standing disagreements. Examining how and when stakeholders invoke different cultural models allowed us to identify management actions that work with, rather than challenge, those models. Dialogue that embraces conflicting cultural models can be difficult and uncomfortable, but has great potential to overcome conservation impasse and achieve lasting conservation results.