伊宁市饮用水源地水质变化动态趋势分析

根据近10年的监测数据，对伊宁市饮用水源地水质变化进行动态趋势分析，无显著变化。     

和田河流域景观空间格局演变的初步分析

利用1990年、1999年TM和2002年中巴假彩色合成卫星遥感影像数据作主要信息源,经图像增强处理和解译,获得了和田河流域的区域土地利用景观类型图.采用景观生态学的方法,对研究区域进行土地利用景观空间格局演变进行了初步分析,并根据生态系统学基本理论,提出了综合利用水资源进行和田河流域生态环境整治的基本方案.     

Impact of Human Activities on Carbon Dioxide (CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>) Emissions: A Statistical Analysis

Summary The balance of evidence suggests a perceptible human influence on global ecosystems. Human activities are affecting the global ecosystem, some directly and some indirectly. If researchers could clarify the extent to which specific human activities affect global ecosystems, they would be in a much better position to suggest strategies for mitigating against the worst disturbances. Sophisticated statistical analysis can help in interpreting the influence of specific human activities on global ecosystems more carefully. This study aims at identifying significant or influential human activities (i.e. factors) on CO₂ emissions using statistical analyses. The study was conducted for two cases: (i) developed countries and (ii) developing countries. In developed countries, this study identified three influential human activities for CO₂ emissions: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) population pressure on natural and terrestrial ecosystems, and (iii) land use change. In developing countries, the significant human activities causing an upsurge of CO₂ emissions are: (i) combustion of fossil fuels, (ii) terrestrial ecosystem strength and (iii) land use change. Among these factors, combustion of fossil fuels is the most influential human activity for CO₂ emissions both in developed and developing countries. Regression analysis based on the factor scores indicated that combustion of fossil fuels has significant positive influence on CO₂ emissions in both developed and developing countries. Terrestrial ecosystem strength has a significant negative influence on CO₂ emissions. Land use change and CO₂ emissions are positively related, although regression analysis showed that the influence of land use change on CO₂ emissions was still insignificant. It is anticipated, from the findings of this study, that CO₂ emissions can be reduced by reducing fossil-fuel consumption and switching to alternative energy sources, preserving exiting forests, planting trees on abandoned and degraded forest lands, or by planting trees by social/agroforestry on agricultural lands.     

Quantifying forest fragmentation spatial process in the developing State of Selangor,peninsular Malaysia

Forest fragmentation has several phases; thus, the ecological significance of each phase during a particular period of time must be interpreted. To interpret, this study quantifies the magnitude of forest loss and the changes in the temporal pattern of fragmentation in the State of Selangor, peninsular Malaysia. Using the decision tree model of land transformation, five phases of forest fragmentation were identified: perforation, dissection, dissipation, shrinkage and attrition. This analysis showed that the magnitude of forest loss was the highest during the dissipation phase. The patchiness analysis showed that dissipation contributes to the highest environmental uncertainty found for the forest patches. This study can be considered a first step in the exploration of the properties and the behavioural pattern shown by the spatial process of forest fragmentation.     

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity‐score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions.     

The Quagga Mussel Crisis at Lake Mead National Recreation Area,Nevada (U.S.A.)

Abstract: Parks are cornerstones of conservation; and non‐native invasive species drive extensive changes to biological diversity in parks. Knowing this, national park staff at Lake Mead National Recreation Area in the southwestern United States had a program in place for early detection of the non‐native, invasive quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis). Upon finding the mussel in January 2007, managers moved quickly to access funding and the best available science to implement a response. Managers considered four options—doing nothing, closing the park, restricting movement on the lakes, and educating and enforcing park visitors—and decided to focus on education and enforcing existing laws. Nonetheless, quagga spread throughout the park and soon began to appear throughout the western United States. I examined why efforts to control the expansion failed and determined the general lessons to be learned from this case. Concentrating human visitation on the lakes through land‐use zoning opened a pathway for invasion, reduced management options, and led to the rapid spread of quagga. To reconcile competing mandates to protect nature and provide recreation, zoning in parks has become a common practice worldwide. It reduces stress on some areas of a park by restricting and thus concentrating human activity in particular areas. Concentrating the human activity in one area does three things: cements pathways that repeatedly import and export vectors of non‐native invasive species; creates the disturbed area necessary to enable non‐native invasive species to gain a foothold; and, establishes a source of invasions that, without appropriate controls, can quickly spread to a park's wilderness areas.     

AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设中耕地保护策略分析中的应用——以湖北赤壁为例

在实地调研湖北赤壁的基础上,探讨AHP-SWOT法在城市圈建设过程中的耕地保护策略分析中的应用.结果表明,耕地异地占补平衡是主要优势,耕地数量持续减少是主要劣势,新一轮土地利用总体规划是主要机遇,城市圈建设占用耕地是主要威胁,建议赤壁市在城市圈建设过程中应发挥耕地异地占补平衡优势,回避城市圈建设占用耕地的威胁.     

基于移动监测和土地利用回归模型的上海市近地面黑碳浓度空间模拟

黑碳(BC)是大气污染物的重要组成部分,对空气质量与人类生活健康产生重要的影响.本研究采用移动样带手段开展上海市近地面BC浓度监测,分析其基本统计特征和空间分异性.在此基础上,利用土地利用回归模型(LUR),探讨人口密度、经济产值和交通道路网密度等因素对上海市近地面BC浓度空间分异的影响.结果表明上海市近地面BC平均浓度为(9.86±8.68)μg·m~(-3),空间差异明显,郊区[(10.47±2.04)μg·m~(-3)]比市中心地区[(7.93±2.79)μg·m~(-3)]高32.03%(2.54μg·m~(-3)).气象要素(风速和相对湿度)和交通道路变量(路网长度、省道距离、高速距离等)显著影响上海市近地面BC浓度(r为0.5~0.7,P0.01).基于气象和交通道路变量的LUR模型能较好模拟上海近地面BC浓度(调整后R2为0.62~0.75,交叉验证R2为0.54~0.69,RMSE为0.15~0.20μg·m~(-3)),其中100 m和5 km缓冲距离的LUR模型相对较优,在一定程度上表明上海市近地面BC浓度主要受气象要素和交通源的影响.本研究有利于加深对上海市BC浓度空间分布格局及其影响因素的客观认识,可为模拟和预测BC对人类活动和自然环境的响应机制提供科学依据和理论支撑.     

中国城市热岛时空特征及其影响因子的分析

全球气候变暖背景下,城市热岛效应会加重城市地区的热胁迫,对人类健康和生存发展提出严峻挑战.近年来我国雾-霾污染情况严重,但雾-霾对城市热岛影响的认识仍较匮乏.本研究基于MODIS遥感卫星地表温度数据,明确了我国2003~2013年白天、夜间以及四季城市热岛的空间变化,并从生物物理学和生物化学角度定量分析其控制机制.结果表明,影响我国白天城市热岛强度的主要因素为人口、农田灌溉和植被活动.纬度、降水量、反照率以及气溶胶浓度是夜间城市热岛强度的主控因子.从对比城乡粗糙度、反照率等生物物理学属性的角度,揭示了乡村背景环境对城市热岛分析的重要影响.结果表明,雾-霾治理可以缓解我国夜间城市热岛现象和热胁迫,有利于缓解区域甚至全球气候变化.