2018年8月两次登陆北上台风移向的先兆信号分析

在分析台风“摩羯”（201814）和“温比亚”（201818）登陆北上异常路径的基础上,从近地面层气象要素场与台风位置动态配置入手,探寻了台风登陆后移向的近地面先兆信号,以此可修正数值模式的预报结果。主要结论如下:登陆后的台风尽管路径多变,但是近地面层气象要素还是会提供一些移向征兆。比如,地面3 h变压低值中心和地面露点高值中心,1 000 hPa高频流涡旋、渐近线或汇合点将是台风未来移动的方向;台风还有沿着流线密集带向其倒槽顶端移动的趋势。登陆后的台风没有趋暖性,而是沿地面温度低值区移动。由于地面要素受下垫面影响较为严重,所以在实际业务应用中应以地面3 h变压、地面露点与高频流场为主,地面温度和地面流场为辅。     

齿缘式旋转锥的齿缘半径的设计方法

转锥式生物质闪速热解液化装置是当今研究的一个热点,而该技术的核心就是对旋转锥设计.本文详细介绍了齿缘式旋转锥的齿缘半径的设计思想和具体的计算方法,为旋转锥的设计提供技术支持和理论指导.     

冲击基本设计试验条件对机载外挂的适用性分析

借助冲击响应谱理论,分析了GJB 150.18系列标准中规定的飞行器设备冲击基本设计试验条件和机载外挂物着陆冲击试验条件的等效关系,理清了冲击基本设计试验条件考核机载外挂物的适用性问题,提出了机载外挂物挂机飞行、着陆过程中冲击环境的考核方法。     

基于支持向量机(SVM)的民用飞机重着陆智能诊断研究

针对国内航空公司对于重着陆的判断方法存在的不足,提出采用支持向量机(SVM)建立重着陆的智能诊断模型;分析对重着陆产生影响的相关因素,在力学基础上揭示了重着陆的产生原理;利用快速存取记录器中记录的多个飞行参数的信息,采用B737机型的实际样本数据进行训练和验证。结果表明:该方法能有效判断出是否发生重着陆,其准确率高达92.86%,证明该重着陆智能诊断方法具有较强实际应用价值,为后续研究奠定了基础。     

特种方舱铁路运输异常调车纵向冲击试验研究

目的 针对特种方舱铁路运输,明确异常调车纵向冲击试验方法,并掌握异常纵向冲击安全性边界.方法 首先开展"一车冲一车"、"一车冲三车"铁路冲击对比试验,获得2种工况下的冲击特性数据.然后,基于冲击试验获得的缓冲器性能,建立特种方舱铁路运输调车作业动力学模型,研究冲击模式下不同冲击速度的纵向冲击特性.结果 试验工况1(冲击...     

电液舵机系统的可靠性强化试验方案设计

以电液舵机为研究对象,根据其自身特点建立故障树,以得到系统的薄弱环节及主要故障模式。通过分析得到电液舵机系统的敏感应力,对可靠性强化试验应用于此类机电液一体化的产品进行了可行性分析,并设计了适用于电液舵机系统的可靠性强化试验方案。     

登陆广东的热带气旋及其产生的灾害链

根据广东省1949～2000年52年的热带气旋统计资料和减灾防灾年鉴，对登陆广东的热带气旋灾害特征及其形成的灾害链进行了研究。结果表明，登陆广东热带气旋灾害发生频次高，强度大，范围广，突发性、并发性强；具有区域性，季节性，并有集中于某一地区某一时间的特征。由于热带气旋各致灾因子的连锁反应，次生灾害常形成多种灾害链。本文根据灾害链成因对其进行了分类分析。     

Use of Fully Biodegradable Panels to Reduce Derelict Pot Threats to Marine Fauna

Fishing pots (i.e., traps) are designed to catch fish or crustaceans and are used globally. Lost pots are a concern for a variety of fisheries, and there are reports that 10 – 70% of deployed pots are lost annually. Derelict fishing pots can be a source of mortality for target and bycatch species for several years. Because continual removal of derelict gear can be impractical over large spatial extents, modifications are needed to disarm gear once it is lost. We tested a fully biodegradable panel with a cull or escape ring designed for placement on the sides of a crab pot that completely degrades into environmentally neutral constituents after approximately 1 year. This panel is relatively inexpensive, easy to install, and can be used in multiple fisheries. We used the blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) fishery as a test case because it is a large pot fishery and blue crab pots are similar to traps used in other pot fisheries. We had commercial fishers deploy pots with panels alongside standard pots in Chesapeake Bay (U.S.A.) to assess potential effects of our experimental pots on blue crab catch. We compared the number, biomass, and size of crabs captured between standard and experimental pots and evaluated differences in catch over a crabbing season (March–November) at five locations. There was no evidence that biodegradable panels adversely affected catch. In all locations and time periods, legal catches were comparable in abundance, biomass, and size between experimental and standard pots. Properly designed biodegradable panels appear to be a viable solution to mitigate adverse effects of derelict pots. Uso de Paneles Completamente Biodegradables para Reducir las Amenazas de Vasijas Abandonadas para la Fauna Marina     

Disentangling the causes of protected‐species bycatch in gillnet fisheries

Gillnet fisheries are widely thought to pose a conservation threat to many populations of marine mammals, seabirds, and turtles. Gillnet fisheries also support a significant proportion of small‐scale fishing communities worldwide. Despite a large number of studies on protected‐species bycatch in recent decades, relatively few have examined the underlying causes of bycatch and fewer still have considered the issue from a multitaxon perspective. We used 3 bibliographic databases and one search engine to identify studies by year of publication and taxon. The majority of studies on the mechanisms of gillnet bycatch are not accessible through the mainstream published literature. Many are reported in technical papers, government reports, and university theses. We reviewed over 600 published and unpublished studies of bycatch in which causal or correlative factors were considered and identified therein 28 environmental, operational, technical, and behavioral factors that may be associated with high or low bycatch rates of the taxa. Of the factors considered, 11 were associated with potential bycatch reduction in 2 out of the 3 taxa, and 3 factors (water depth, mesh size, and net height) were associated with trends in bycatch rate for all 3 taxa. These findings provide a basis to guide further experimental work to test hypotheses about which factors most influence bycatch rates and to explore ways of managing fishing activities and improving gear design to minimize the incidental capture of species of conservation concern while ensuring the viability of the fisheries concerned.     

基于关联规则的跑道着陆事件演化网络构建研究*

为了提高航空运输系统安全性,针对航空器着陆过程中冲偏出和重着陆事件的关联机理开展研究。以84起跑道着陆事故调查报告为样本,利用Python分词工具提取风险因素并建立跑道着陆事件数据集,应用Apriori算法挖掘风险因素间关联规则,基于复杂网络理论构建该类事件演化网络,分析社团结构和拓扑特征。研究结果表明:本文所构建的网络密度为0.143,网络较为紧密,风险因素间强关联;网络社团结构显著,符合飞行操纵、运行状态、运行环境、不利条件的分类特点;网络关键节点“航线训练”、“接地速度大”综合值分别为0.599 8、0.589 0。研究结果可为飞行安全研究提供新思路。