太湖流域水生态环境功能分区管理指标达成效率评估和预警研究

太湖流域严峻的水生态环境形势备受关注,而水生态环境功能分区管理体系实施现状和效果无法被准确把握。以太湖流域水生态环境功能分区为研究对象,基于四象限法则和二维向量结构指标体系等方法论,综合障碍因子分析与目标可达性分析,对太湖流域水生态环境功能分区管理绩效评估目标达成效率进行评估和预警,为水生态环境功能分区管控提供技术指导。结果表明,江苏省太湖流域目标达成效率情况较好,"高效"、"一般"、"低效"的比例依次下降,高预警级别的区域较少;环境效率指标中单位面积污染物减排管控效率较高,环境质量指标整体表现良好,须谨防向"低效"转变。     

Characteristics of rear-end crashes involving passenger vehicles with automatic emergency braking

Abstract

Objectives: Automatic emergency braking (AEB) is a proven effective countermeasure for preventing front-to-rear crashes, but it has not yet fully lived up to its estimated potential. This study identified the types of rear-end crashes in which striking vehicles with AEB are overrepresented to determine whether the system is more effective in some situations than in others, so that additional opportunities for increasing AEB effectiveness might be explored.

Methods: Rear-end crash involvements were extracted from 23?U.S. states during 2009–2016 for striking passenger vehicles with and without AEB among models where the system was optional. Logistic regression was used to examine the odds that rear-end crashes with various characteristics involved a striking vehicle with AEB, controlling for driver and vehicle features.

Results: Striking vehicles were significantly more likely to have AEB in crashes where the striking vehicle was turning relative to when it was moving straight (odds ratio [OR]?=?2.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76, 3.13); when the struck vehicle was turning (OR = 1.66; 95% CI, 1.25, 2.21) or changing lanes (OR = 2.05; 95% CI, 1.13, 3.72) relative to when it was slowing or stopped; when the struck vehicle was not a passenger vehicle or was a special use vehicle relative to a car (OR = 1.61; 95% CI, 1.01, 2.55); on snowy or icy roads relative to dry roads (OR = 1.83; 95% CI, 1.16, 2.86); or on roads with speed limits of 70+ mph relative to those with 40 to 45?mph speed limits (OR = 1.49; 95% CI, 1.10, 2.03). Overall, 25.3% of crashes where the striking vehicle had AEB had at least one of these overrepresented characteristics, compared with 15.9% of strikes by vehicles without AEB.

Conclusions: The typical rear-end crash occurs when 2 passenger vehicles are proceeding in line, on a dry road, and at lower speeds. Because atypical crash circumstances are overrepresented among rear-end crashes by striking vehicles with AEB, it appears that the system is doing a better job of preventing the more typical crash scenario. Consumer information testing programs of AEB use a test configuration that models the typical rear-end crash type. Testing programs promoting good AEB performance in crash circumstances where vehicles with AEB are overrepresented could guide future development of AEB systems that perform well in these additional rear-end collision scenarios.     

Forward collision warning based on a driver model to increase drivers’ acceptance

Abstract

Objective: Systems that can warn the driver of a possible collision with a vulnerable road user (VRU) have significant safety benefits. However, incorrect warning times can have adverse effects on the driver. If the warning is too late, drivers might not be able to react; if the warning is too early, drivers can become annoyed and might turn off the system. Currently, there are no methods to determine the right timing for a warning to achieve high effectiveness and acceptance by the driver. This study aims to validate a driver model as the basis for selecting appropriate warning times. The timing of the forward collision warnings (FCWs) selected for the current study was based on the comfort boundary (CB) model developed during a previous project, which describes the moment a driver would brake. Drivers’ acceptance toward these warnings was analyzed. The present study was conducted as part of the European research project PROSPECT (“Proactive Safety for Pedestrians and Cyclists”).

Methods: Two warnings were selected: One inside the CB and one outside the CB. The scenario tested was a cyclist crossing scenario with time to arrival (TTA) of 4?s (it takes the cyclist 4?s to reach the intersection). The timing of the warning inside the CB was at a time to collision (TTC) of 2.6?s (asymptotic value of the model at TTA = 4?s) and the warning outside the CB was at TTC = 1.7?s (below the lower 95% value at TTA = 4?s). Thirty-one participants took part in the test track study (between-subjects design where warning time was the independent variable). Participants were informed that they could brake any moment after the warning was issued. After the experiment, participants completed an acceptance survey.

Results: Participants reacted faster to the warning outside the CB compared to the warning inside the CB. This confirms that the CB model represents the criticality felt by the driver. Participants also rated the warning inside the CB as more disturbing, and they had a higher acceptance of the system with the warning outside the CB. The above results confirm the possibility of developing wellsaccepted warnings based on driver models.

Conclusions: Similar to other studies’ results, drivers prefer warning times that compare with their driving behavior. It is important to consider that the study tested only one scenario. In addition, in this study, participants were aware of the appearance of the cyclist and the warning. A further investigation should be conducted to determine the acceptance of distracted drivers.     

上海崇明岛蔬菜地土壤重金属含量与生态风险预警评估

崇明3城镇蔬菜地土壤重金属的总体含量为Cu 29.2 mg·kg^-1、Pb 26.5 mg·kg^-1、Cr 79.4 mg·kg^-1、Zn 91.2 mg·kg^-1和Cd 0.222 mg·kg^-1.除Cd在城桥镇和陈家镇超过国家土壤一级标准(GB 15618-1995)外,其余均低于国家土壤一级标准,并且满足国家对绿色食品产地土壤重金属含量的要求(NY/T391-2000).与上海土壤背景值相比,Cu、Pb、Cr、Zn和Cd分别高出上海土壤背景值 24.3％、24.4％、22.9％、18.8％和65.7％.崇明3城镇蔬菜地土壤重金属生态风险预警评估得出,23个采样点中有3个样点属于中警,10个样点属于轻警,8个样点属于预警,1个样点属于无警,综合评估I_{ER＝1.562,为轻警.3城镇生态风险排序为堡镇（IER=1.799）>城桥镇（IER=1.636）>陈家镇（IER=1.368）,均属于轻警.}     

高危作业监测预警系统的总体设计

为探索高危作业监测预警系统的建立,对风险监测预警系统进行了系统研究,在研究总结其基本原理的基础上,从理论上提出筛选高危作业监测预警指标的原则、要求和方法,进而提出高危作业监测预警的核心技术指标体系的建立及其基本结构和运行模式的总体设计思路,首次提出职业危害控制的先行指标、同步指标和滞后指标,在高危作业监测预警系统中建立信息咨询系统、信息监测系统、风险评估与诊断系统、预防控制与应急救援决策系统等子系统和高危作业监测预警系统基本结构与运行模式。该系统可以科学判断出当前政策、法规、标准、规划,经济贸易的影响及相应需采取的政策调整,在控制、检测、评价、诊断、防护等领域应重点开展的关键技术研究,当前机构、人员、设施、财力等方面的能力建设要求,分析政府、企业、劳动者应采取的主要行为干预。本文逻辑清晰、系统性强、内容全面,可为进一步开展职业病防治工作提供前沿考虑。     

长大隧道突发性地质灾害预警信息系统研究

针对国内外长大隧道施工过程中频繁遇到的突发性地质灾害(涌水、突泥,以下同)对工程造成重大损失和人员伤亡,调研国内外长大隧道突发性地质灾害发生现状和危害,首次提出隧道突发性地质灾害预测预报方法为灾害发生前兆的现象预报法和S-t曲线变化趋势判断法;并对主要风险源水压和水量、水质、初期支护内力及围岩位移进行监控,给出相应的预警标准。笔者研究并开发了隧道灾害预警系统,在浏阳河隧道过河段现场使用;结果表明,该系统能较好地适应隧道复杂环境,稳定性好,能对采集到的数据分析判别,对长大隧道安全施工具有一定的指导意义。     

不确定背景环境下车道检测技术的研究

针对不确定背景的交通环境,提出一种新的车道检测算法。确定道路路面的色彩范围,提取车道标线的色彩信息,消除光照强度变化对车道标线信息提取过程的影响;通过对比车辆与车道标线在大小、形状和运动模式3方面的差异排除车道中车辆对车道线检测的干扰;单帧图像的车道检测结果存储于车道一致性确认模块中,运用车道标志线一致性确认提高车道检测结果的准确性。试验结果表明,该方法能够有效地检测各种天气条件下车道区域以及解决车道遮挡问题。     

基于大数据的水环境风险业务化评估与预警研究

随着生态环境大数据的不断建设,国家级、流域级和行政区级别的大数据中心相继产生。快速、高效地分析和利用实时产生、类型多样的环境大数据,提取环境大数据在风险评估与预警的价值,具有重要的意义,也充满挑战。本文基于环境大数据的数据特点和不同层次的组织管理特征以及环境风险评估预警的业务化需求,构建基于大数据的流域环境风险评估与预警技术及其业务化系统的体系、分析环境风险智能识别模式、研究环境风险高效模拟预测和评估的方法,并提出一套满足各级管理部门需求,高效利用环境大数据的多中心业务化系统。     

集体建设用地指标市场化交易预警研究

对集体建设用地指标市场化交易进行预警研究可以更好地为其入市提供科学的监督和管控。本文以集体建设用地指标市场化交易的结果征兆信息建立其警兆值的评测指标体系;运用基于主成分分析的"惩罚性"变权法确定权重,计算综合模拟指数划分警界区间、确定警度;结合GM(1,1)模型进行警度预测,并以江苏省新沂市为例进行了实证测算。研究结果表明:1采用景气信号灯来反映警度,2007-2008年新沂市的集体建设用地指标市场交易的警兆值为-0.041和0.184,处于紫色预警;2009年警兆值为0.238,处于蓝色预警;2010年警兆值上升到0.649,处于绿色预警;2011-2013年警兆值从0.876提高至0.920,处于红色预警状态。2对指标体系进行主成分分析确定基础权重,得到建设用地转耕地面积(0.08)、农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费(0.084)、地均财政收入(0.083)等的基础权重明显大于其他指标,是制约预警警度的重要因素。3通过"惩罚性"变权研究,得知农民宅基地拆迁安置补偿费的变权权重值有波动下降趋势,说明该指标的重要性递减;第一产业单位面积产值、新型农村合作医疗覆盖率、农村居民基本养老保险参保率的变权权重值有波动上升趋势,说明这些指标的重要性在不断加强。42014-2016年新沂市集体建设用地指标市场交易的预测警兆值是1.566,1.711和2.154,均是红色预警,表明集体建设用地指标交易持续高热。结论与建议:预警结果能为监测集体建设用地指标市场交易情况提供依据,对上述重要因素进行科学合理的管控将有利于降低指标市场交易的警度,以促进集体建设用地入市的持续健康发展。     

Application of an early warning indicator and CaO to maximize the time–space-yield of an completely mixed waste digester using rape seed oil as co-substrate

In order to increase the organic loading rate (OLR) and hereby the performance of biogas plants an early warning indicator (EWI-VFA/Ca) was applied in a laboratory-scale biogas digester to control process stability and to steer additive dosing. As soon as the EWI-VFA/Ca indicated the change from stable to instable process conditions, calcium oxide was charged as a countermeasure to raise the pH and to bind long-chain fatty acids (LCFAs) by formation of aggregates. An interval of eight days between two increases of the OLR, which corresponded to 38% of the hydraulic residence time (HRT), was sufficient for process adaptation. An OLR increase by a factor of three within six weeks was successfully used for biogas production. The OLR was increased to 9.5 kg volatile solids (VS) m^?3 d^?1 with up to 87% of fat. The high loading rates affected neither the microbial community negatively nor the biogas production process. Despite the increase of the organic load to high rates, methane production yielded almost its optimum, amounting to 0.9 m³ (kg VS)^?1. Beneath several uncharacterized members of the phylum Firmicutes mostly belonging to the family Clostridiaceae, a Syntrophomonas-like organism was identified that is known to live in a syntrophic relationship to methanogenic archaea. Within the methanogenic group, microorganisms affiliated to Methanosarcina, Methanoculleus and Methanobacterium dominated the community.