粤北地区干旱监测及预警方法研究

从农业生产实际出发,引入能够判断作物受旱程度的毛管破裂含水量、凋萎含水量等土壤含水量指标来确定干旱指标,根据土壤水分平衡理论,建立干旱监测预警模型,利用自动站气象资料和降水趋势预报对干旱情况进行判别和分析,并采用Surfer软件对干旱情况进行直观的图形显示.     

浅谈我国逆反射材料现状及其发展趋势展望

随着逆反射材料的广泛应用 ,其带来的安全警示效果、产品质量、生产工艺、检测方法及规范管理等方面的问题被日趋重视 ,笔者通过对逆反射材料的基本构造及反光特性的分析 ,论述了其对人和物的安全防护作用 ,并对我国目前逆反射材料的应用领域、产品质量及检测设备、检测标准等方面的问题进行探讨和评述 ,根据国内外的发展趋势 ,对我国开发及发展逆反射材料产业提出了笔者观点 ,为政府决策提供科学依据     

铁路安全预警系统的研究和实现

结合哈尔滨铁路局实际运营系统 ,基于事故树分析理论 ,探讨了铁路安全预警系统的实现。首先论述了事故树的建立方法和以事故树分析法为基础的铁路安全预警系统的核心算法 ,然后讨论了具体实现的数据结构和事故树编码方法 ,最后简要提出了铁路安全预警系统的系统设计思想     

印度大地震的可预警信息研究

20 0 1 0 1 2 6印度西北部的普杰地区发生了 7 8级强烈地震。对这次强震事件 ,利用卫星遥感监测地气系统射出长波辐射的数值产品资料 ,分析了以普杰为中心整个西亚范围内 ,事件发生前后共计 6个月的月平均辐射场的分布特征及其演变过程。发现自震前 2个月至震时当月 ,普杰地区始终是一个辐射 (热 )场的高值中心 ,震后明显消散。据此认为印度大地震有可识别的预警信息 ,提出利用卫星遥感技术及其产品 ,有可能为“突破”短临地震预报开拓出一种新的预测技术生长点     

Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains - the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre-famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non-market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.     

全面落实新《安全生产法》强化焦化企业安全管理

新《安全生产法》的颁布和实施,对焦化企业提出了更高的要求。焦化企业可以通过完善安全仪表系统、开展危险与可操作分析、建立企业安全生产预警体系、贯彻执行焦化行业安全生产标准和建立现代企业安全管理制度来更好地促进其安全生产。     

中小型在役桥梁安全预警研究

为了准确评估中小型在役桥梁安全状况,提出利用灰色关联故障树分析法对中小型在役桥梁进行安全预警研究。首先建立中小型在役桥梁安全预警故障树;其次采用专家打分法确定故障树各底事件的不可靠概率,得到各底事件的重要度,并利用灰色关联理论求出故障树各底事件的关联度;根据预警理论将各底事件的关联度与各底事件的重要度加权平均确定预警值所处的警限区间,从而确定警度及需要发出的预警信号灯,完成预警工作,并提出相应的预控对策。最后通过实例分析,结果表明该方法具有可行性与实用性。     

绿灯倒计时信号对驾驶行为的影响

为揭示绿灯倒计时信号对交叉口交通安全的影响,针对不同交通负荷与信号控制方式下的驾驶行为开展研究。选择大连市内的倒计时信号交叉口与非倒计时信号交叉口各2处,开展车辆行驶速度及不良驾驶行为调查。用数理统计方法,对比分析2类交叉口在平峰与高峰时段的车辆行驶速度特性,同时对比分析上述不同条件下闯黄灯及违规变道行为的发生数量。研究表明,绿灯倒计时信号在绿灯时间末期,会诱发一部分驾驶员加速行驶通过交叉口;绿灯倒计时信号在平峰时段对闯黄灯行为数量的影响较小,而对违规变道行为的数量有显著影响。     

工贸行业安全生产预警指数数学模型构建

通过对《冶金等工贸行业安全生产标准化基本规范评分细则》的仔细解读,将安全预警指标分解成13个一级指标和38个二级指标,对应指标给以相应的经过归一化处理后的权重。针对这十三个安全预警指标建立了数学量化模型,给出了计算方法和安全预警指数的状态划分。结合GM(1,1)灰色预测理论和等维新息模型,构建适合工贸企业的预测模型,对未来的安全生产预警指数作出预测,帮助工贸企业实时掌握安全生产动态,做到科学合理决策。     

Influences on stakeholder support for a wildfire early warning system in a UK protected area

Projected increases in wildfire risk and impacts to human populations in the UK have prompted the installation of expanded management approaches such as early warning systems (EWSs). Newer iterations of wildfire EWSs help mitigate risk through rapid detection, often using high-resolution monitoring technology and instantaneous information collection. While existing research suggests that local social context plays an important role in the effective application of EWSs, little is known about factors that contribute to stakeholder support for these technocratic systems and their successful implementation in protected areas. This study examines support for an EWS in Northumberland National Park, UK, using focus groups with a broad range of local stakeholders. We found that diverse stakeholder understandings of wildfire, different perceptions of wildfire risk, and varied identification of values at risk collectively help explain mixed support for the EWS. Mixed support also was an outgrowth of distrust between several stakeholder groups, indicating a need for improved communication regarding wildfire risk management across stakeholder groups. Results suggest that EWSs adopted in multi-use protected areas shared by a range of stakeholder are most likely to be successful when stakeholders have shared understandings of the hazard and opportunities for collective planning to address its risks. We conclude that EWSs are a viable approach to wildfire risk reduction, but there needs to be a critical consideration of pre-existing stakeholder dynamics for effective EWS implementation.