基于高斯模型对氯气泄漏浓度分布的快速估算方法研究

利用高斯模型对氯气泄漏浓度分布进行了较全面地探讨和研究,分析了高斯模型的实用性,探索了通过地面任意两点的浓度测量值快速计算泄漏源流强和泄漏点的高度以及地面浓度最大值及最大值位置的方法。提出了估算浓度等于和大于某一定值的区域的办法,并通过三个不同浓度的等值线的估算值和模拟值进行了比较,证明该方法的合理性。该方法完全可以推广到其它的模型和各种不同的条件,对于提高事故处置的侦检效率具有积极的意义。     

北京市控制大气污染四期紧急措施环境有效性分析

对北京市控制大气污染的四期紧急措施进行量化,分别计算出各项控制措施实施后的排放削减量,建立排放清单.采用空气质量模型,模拟了紧急措施实施的各阶段市区内一次大气污染物SO₂、NO_x和PM10浓度的时空分布情况,分析和评价了四期紧急措施的环境有效性.结果表明,四期紧急措施对SO₂和NO_x的控制效果较好,PM10的环境浓度下降不明显.     

应用动态模型确定酸沉降临界负荷的探讨

任何一个天然生态系统都是一个稳定系统.在一定酸沉降量的作用下,生态系统最终会平衡在一个新的稳定状态.动态模型可以模拟不同酸沉降量下生态系统化学状态的变化趋势.根据信号与系统理论,这种趋势可以用一阶指数衰减函数进行模拟,以得到系统达到稳定状态时的化学指标值.根据不同酸沉降量和所对应的稳态化学指标值之间的剂量-响应曲线,可以求出当系统稳态化学指标值达到临界化学值时的酸沉降量,即为系统的酸沉降临界负荷.应用这种方法,以MAGIC模型为例,计算了四川峨眉山顶水和重庆南山湖泊的硫沉降临界负荷,分别为1.54和6.5     

油污染土壤气体抽排去污模型及影响因素

为了开展适合我国实际情况的有机污染土壤气体抽排净化技术研究,在对油污染土壤的通风去污过程机理进行分析的基础上,建立了一个简化机理模拟模型.以华北地区典型土壤为实验土样,油污染物为例,通过一维土柱实验,研究了抽排气体流速、土壤含水率和土质对去污过程的影响.实验表明抽排气体流速存在最佳值,土壤含水率对不同土质土壤净化时间影响不同,对粉砂土,含水率升高,净化效率增强;而对粘质土壤,结果正好相反.对模型预测结果进行实验验证表明,本文建立的模拟模型在实验限定条件范围内是准确和适用的.     

Humanitarian governance and the consequences of the state‐fragility discourse in the Democratic Republic of Congo's health sector

This paper examines how the discourse on state fragility affects the preferences of key actors in humanitarian governance for different types of health‐sector interventions in the Democratic Republic of Congo. It argues that, instead of focusing on the actual meaning of state fragility, attention should be paid to interactive processes around the discourse among stakeholders in the health sector. The lack of consensus on state fragility influences humanitarian governance, especially the perceptions of and interactions between the host government, donors, and international non‐governmental organisations. The latter have legitimised the persistence of vertical, emergency‐based interventions by emphasising state fragility, whereas state officials have preferred to assert political statehood and a higher degree of control. Nevertheless, they agree that donors’ financial contributions ensure the survival of the public health sector. Looking ahead, a policy coalition based on harmonised views about addressing fragility is necessary for effective engagement and the sustainability of interventions, but this is unlikely to happen any time soon.     

Conceptual framework for evaluation of ecotourism carrying capacity for sustainable development of Karkheh protected area,Iran

The maintenance of natural and virgin ecosystems against an unnecessary influx of humans requires a modern and efficient model such as the carrying capacity model to optimize the management and development of ecotourism in these areas. The model is one of the key tools for conservation and sustainability of these areas. The present research attempts to formulate a framework for the ecotourism carrying capacity model for sustainable development of Karkheh protected area in Iran. The information was collected using a citation method as well as, interviews with experts, and visitors, and director of the region with 24 key indicators being regulated by field surveys and library studies. In this study, the network analysis process model, the Pressure-State-Response conceptual model, and Arc GIS_10.5 software were used to determine the potential for the establishment of ecotourism performance in the scale of 1: 50,000. In this research, 70 questionnaires were completed by experts in the field of environment and ecotourism to determine the relative importance of effective pressures. According to the results, the highest values belonged to physical carrying capacity (13,425,681 persons per day), ecological carrying capacity (2,482,226 persons per day), and social and culture (985,706 people per day), respectively. Based on the regional carrying capacity, the physical, ecological, and social carrying capacity index was calculated as 3356, 621, and 246 (greater than one), respectively. According to the results, the region has a high carrying capacity, which can accept visitors.     

考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型

为适时、有效地控制炼化过程系统风险,以模糊Petri网(FPN)为基础,针对炼化系统动态退化性和系统中保护层对风险转移的干预性,建立考虑保护层响应的炼化过程系统风险动态转移模型。描述基于FPN的保护层作用动态机制,分析炼化系统在保护层干预下,从非正常干扰触发开始至炼化系统退化过程的风险变化趋势。最后通过正己烷缓冲罐案例分析验证模型。结果表明:正己烷缓冲罐在开始运行的30 000 h内,系统风险等级呈阶段性变化,在工作的前16 800 h,风险为Ⅰ级;第16 800~27 600 h,风险为Ⅱ级;第27 600~30 000 h,风险为Ⅲ级。     

基于Tripod-Beta模型的船舶火灾事故风险分析

为深入分析船舶火灾事故风险因素及其后果产生的影响,通过分析1991-2017年全球船舶火灾事故调查报告,从人员、管理、船舶设备、货物、环境5个方面对船舶火灾影响因素进行识别研究;采用三脚架事故致因模型(Tripod-Beta model),构建考虑安全栅的船舶火灾事故情景演化模型,识别船舶火灾关键影响因素;并在样本量较少的情况下,采用信息扩散理论计算船舶火灾发生率;最后,利用布尔函数和风险矩阵,对船舶火灾事故风险进行评价研究。结果表明:船员不安全行为和船舶设备表面过热、设备短路是船舶火灾事故的关键风险因素;事故后果链中安全栅遭到破坏时,船舶火灾风险处于不希望发生范围内。该方法能有效评估船舶火灾风险的等级,满足海事管理部门的监管工作需求。     

The impact of coal and non-coal consumption on China's energy performance improvement

China is the world's largest energy consumer, and coal accounts for a higher proportion of the country's total energy consumption, yet during its 12th five-year plan (2011–2015), the coal share among total energy consumption significantly decreased. Previous studies exploring energy performance typically used energy consumption as an input, but this lacks the analytical capacity for the structure of energy consumption. Thus, this study splits energy input into two different inputs, coal consumption and non-coal energy consumption, and based on their differences with other variables, uses the hybrid dynamic data envelopment analysis model to assess the energy performance of China's provincial industrial sector during the period 2011 to 2015. We then compare coal consumption's and non-coal consumption's rooms for improvement and conclude that provinces in eastern and central China should reduce the amount of coal consumption, thereby improving energy performance. Conversely, provinces in the western region should target a balance between energy utilization efficiency and coal consumption.     

Monitoring,imperfect detection,and risk optimization of a Tasmanian devil insurance population

Most species are imperfectly detected during biological surveys, which creates uncertainty around their abundance or presence at a given location. Decision makers managing threatened or pest species are regularly faced with this uncertainty. Wildlife diseases can drive species to extinction; thus, managing species with disease is an important part of conservation. Devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) is one such disease that led to the listing of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) as endangered. Managers aim to maintain devils in the wild by establishing disease‐free insurance populations at isolated sites. Often a resident DFTD‐affected population must first be removed. In a successful collaboration between decision scientists and wildlife managers, we used an accessible population model to inform monitoring decisions and facilitate the establishment of an insurance population of devils on Forestier Peninsula. We used a Bayesian catch‐effort model to estimate population size of a diseased population from removal and camera trap data. We also analyzed the costs and benefits of declaring the area disease‐free prior to reintroduction and establishment of a healthy insurance population. After the monitoring session in May–June 2015, the probability that all devils had been successfully removed was close to 1, even when we accounted for a possible introduction of a devil to the site. Given this high probability and the baseline cost of declaring population absence prematurely, we found it was not cost‐effective to carry out any additional monitoring before introducing the insurance population. Considering these results within the broader context of Tasmanian devil management, managers ultimately decided to implement an additional monitoring session before the introduction. This was a conservative decision that accounted for uncertainty in model estimates and for the broader nonmonetary costs of mistakenly declaring the area disease‐free.