EVALUATION OF SOME APPROACHES TO ESTIMATING NON-POINT POLLUTANT LOADS FOR UNMONITORED AREAS1

ABSTRACT: Evaluation of the non-point source pollutant load entering a lake from multiple tributaries requires either that all tributaries be monitored or that some extrapolation method be used to estimate loads originating in areas not monitored. Unmonitored areas include not only watersheds of tributaries that are not monitored, but also portions of a monitored tributary's drainage basin downstream from the monitoring site and areas of direct drainage. Significant portions of large lake drainage basins are often not monitored, and loads for these areas are often estimated by extrapolation. Six simple extrapolation procedures were evaluated by using them to estimate loads for areas that had been monitored and comparing the estimated loads with the monitored loads. Three approaches were based on inter-basin ratios of area, C-factor, and discharge. The other approaches used regression relationships between concentration and flow to estimate concentrations for the unmonitored basin. The ratio approaches generally were more reliable than the regression approaches. However, extrapolation by any method tested was not very precise. Some methods also were biased when applied to watersheds of a size different than the monitored one. Extrapolation by any of these methods would compromise the precision of the lake-wide load estimate, if the unmonitored area were a significant part of the entire basin.     

大空间建筑消防系统故障风险定量分析的新方法

在对CO2自动灭火系统的故障模式、影响及危害度定性分析的基础上,采用模糊数学方法,以系统故障影响严重度、故障模式发生概率及其可检测性为关键指标,给出了故障风险定量评价指标的建立方法,提出了一种消防系统故障风险定量分析的新方法———模糊推理法。该方法可直接输入语言变量,利用模糊定性和不确定信息或数据定量评价系统的故障风险,并以CO2自动灭火系统为例,详细阐述了该方法定量评价故障风险的全过程。该方法和推理过程可为其他建筑防火设备的同类分析所借鉴,为城市火灾风险定量评价系统的构建提供理论基础和一种新方法。     

机场鸟击事故灾害的生态防治

从生态学角度分析了机场鸟击事故灾害发生的根源和特点，概述了鸟击灾害的生态防治措施，包括主动性防治和被动性防治，以及计算机和信息技术的应用。指出鸟击灾害已经成为机场飞行安全的主要威胁之一；生态综合防治是机场鸟击事故灾害防治的根本手段。     

大型强激光系统风险评价方法

对于大型强激光系统 ,要求进行安全性分析。给出了大型强激光系统风险评价的定性定量评估方法     

A process-based model designed for filling of large data gaps in tower-based measurements of net ecosystem productivity

In this paper we present a simple hybrid gap-filling model (GFM) designed with a minimum number of parameters necessary to capture the ecological processes important for filling medium-to-large gaps in Flux data. As the model is process-based, the model has potential to be used in filling large gaps exhibiting a broad range of micro-meteorological and site conditions. The GFM performance was evaluated using “Punch hole” and extrapolation experiments based on data collected in west-central New Brunswick. These experiments indicated that the GFM is able to provide acceptable results (r² > 0.80) when >500 data points are used in model parameterization. The GFM was shown to address daytime evolution of NEP reasonably well for a wide range of weather and site conditions. An analysis of residuals indicated that for the most part no obvious trends were evident; although a slight bias was detected in NEP with soil temperature. To explore the portability of the GFM across ecosystem types, a transcontinental validation was conducted using NEP and ancillary data from seven ecosystems along a north-south transect (i.e., temperature–moisture gradient) from northern Europe (Finland) to the Middle East (Israel). The GFM was shown to explain over 75% of the variability in NEP measured at most ecosystems, which strongly suggests that the GFM maybe successfully applied to forest ecosystems outside Canada.     

气流清扫的超音速喷管气动设计及其性能的对比分析

目的 提出使用拉瓦尔喷管产生高速气流清扫固体表面附着的水膜。方法 设计中心轴对称锥形喷管(Taper-A)、中心轴对称Sivell法喷管(Sivell-A)、中心轴对称短化喷管(MLN-A)和二维锥形型线喷管(Taper-2D),建立包括外流场的LES数值仿真模型,并进行仿真,分析研究外流场结构,并基于韦伯数判据,分析超音速喷管的清扫性能。结果 喷管短化设计方法可以将喷管长度缩短50%。外流场速度呈波动衰减趋势,特征线法喷管的气流膨胀更充分。缩短喷管长度会减小内流场的附面层厚度,因此MLN-A在速度波动中的能量耗散较少;喷管过长也会降低清扫性能,MLN-A和Taper-2D在xL>2区域的最大等效水膜厚度小于0.2 μm,但MLN-A有效清扫面积比Taper-A的喷管提高15%以上,清扫性能最优。结论 喷管短化设计方法可以有效缩短喷管。喷管结构对清扫性能影响较大。MLN-A喷管的清扫性能最优。     

烟气对民航安全的评估技术研究

工业设施排放的烟气对民航具有潜在影响,开展烟气对民航影响方面的研究,对维护机场净空安全具有重要意义.结合国内外烟气对民航安全评估的相关研究现状,归纳了烟气自身及其排放源的特点.确定烟气主要影响机场附近航行安全,同时烟气排放源可视为一般障碍物,并从烟气流和烟气成分角度分析烟气自身对航行安全的影响.最后对实测、软件仿真、风洞试验等现有评估方法进行了对比分析,归纳了烟气评估技术现实情况,并展望了评估技术未来的发展趋势.     

基于实际飞行数据的首都机场飞机发动机日排放清单估算方法研究

根据航班实际飞行数据估算机场飞机主发动机排放量,可以提升机场排放清单编制的准确度.基于北京首都机场某日运行数据和国内1326架次航班的机载飞行数据(QAR数据),研究了基于飞行数据的机场飞机主发动机排放清单制定方法.采用一阶近似3.0(FOA3.0)方法补充国际民航组织发动机排放数据库颗粒物基准排放指数,结合QAR数据,应用波音燃油流量法2(BFFM2)估算了实际飞行条件下污染物排放指数,编制了首都机场该日飞机主发动机排放清单,分析了首都机场航班排放特征.在此基础上,探讨了结合实际数据本地化的着陆和起飞循环,以期为机场飞机主发动机排放量的快速准确核算提供新的思路.结果发现,该日航班主发动机HC、CO、NO_x和PM_(2.5)排放量分别为933.9、10967.8、14703.5和85.5 kg,较标准LTO循环估算结果的偏差分别为15.6%、13.2%、-29.1%和-18.9%.NO_x排放主要集中在起飞和爬升阶段,占其排放总量的68.0%;HC和CO排放主要集中在滑行和慢车阶段,分别占其排放总量的90.0%和88.0%;PM_(2.5)在各飞行阶段的排放较为平均.对于单位LTO循环,航班滑行过程中平均排队等候(地速为零)时间为7.7 min,产生的HC、CO、NO_x和PM_(2.5)分别占总滑行阶段对应污染物排放量的26.3%、27.5%、25.7%和27.5%,这一部分排放量有望通过场面运行优化进一步控制.     

机场机坪风险管理研究

民用机场机坪具有范围小,保障单位和人员多而杂等特点,是航空地面事故的多发环节。本文针对国内某国际机场近五年的机坪事故数据进行统计分析研究,运用事故树的方法定性分析原因,再通过分析影响机坪安全的作业人员、设备设施、环境、管理四大因素中的13项指标,采用灰色关联定量评价方法,系统建立了机场机坪安全评价指标体系,实现机坪安全影响因素的安全状况分级,最终在定性定量方法的结合下,实现对机场机坪区域的整体风险评价,并根据评估结果提出风险控制措施,最终提出可行性建议：管理好机坪车辆和机坪资源的矛盾;管理好车辆违规现象,如超速行驶,乱停乱放;机坪地面的标志标线清晰,为工作人员提供良好的作业环境;加强监督力量,严格把关员工业务水平及执照。