大型超市安全管理的定量评价研究

为了有效地评估大型超市的安全管理情况,提高其安全管理水平,根据大型超市的主要危险因素、事故特点等,从安全管理组织和制度、员工的安全管理、设备设施的安全管理、商品安全管理、环境安全管理和事故应急管理六个方面建立了大型超市安全管理定量评估指标体系。该指标体系共分为两级指标,采用层次分析法确定一级指标权重,采用德尔菲专家咨询法确定二级指标权重,建立了大型超市安全管理定量评估模型。为方便对大型超市的安全管理情况进行准确、快速地评估,利用于EXCEL软件建立了大型超市安全管理定量评估系统。     

大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法的对比

为了对大空间建筑烟气填充研究方法进行对比分析。以一个废弃的大空间仓库为研究对象,采用了全尺寸火灾实验、计算机数值模拟和理论分析相互应用验证的研究方法,研究理论及数值模拟两种火灾烟气层高度的描述方法的准确性。结果表明当采用t2火模型时,在与现实的吻合程度方面,数值模拟〉Zukoski理论模型〉Yamana-Tanaka理论模型;随着火灾的不断发展,相对误差逐渐增大。通过对比分析发现,全尺寸实验、理论模型和数值模拟三种方法相互验证可以更好地保证研究的准确性;总结得到了两种与现实较吻合的描述烟气层高度的理论方法,并且提出减小误差应注意的几点事项,包括尽可能提高火源热释放速率、烟气层温度描述的准确性;不考虑火源热量通过建筑边界结构散失等。     

点火因素对于重大井喷事故的影响分析

本文主要分析了高含硫气井点火时间的影响.首先分析国内某重大高含硫井喷事故的调查结果[1],其次采用大涡模拟方法对井喷气体扩散进行模拟,并将计算结果与现场实际调查结果进行对比.通过计算不同点火时间在事故中造成的灾难后果,得出点火时间对于灾难的影响.通过计算不同的气象条件下的扩散距离,提出15min的点火时间标准.     

Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series

Global warming is the observed increase of the average temperature of the Earth. The primary cause of this phenomenon is the release of the greenhouse gases by burning of fossil fuels, land cleaning, agriculture, among others, leading to the increase of the so-called greenhouse effect. An approach to deal with this important problem is the time series analysis. In this regard, different techniques can be applied to evaluate the global warming dynamics. This kind of analysis allows one to make better predictions increasing our comprehension of the phenomenon. This article applies nonlinear tools to analyze temperature time series establishing state space reconstruction and prediction. Since noise contamination is unavoidable in data acquisition, it is important to employ robust techniques. The method of delay coordinates is employed for state space reconstruction and delay parameters are evaluated using the method of average mutual information and the method of false nearest neighbors. Afterwards, the simple nonlinear prediction method is employed to estimate temperatures of the future. Temperature time series from different places of the planet are used. Initially, the approach is verified considering known parts of the time series and afterwards, results are extrapolated for future values estimating temperature until 2028. Results show that these techniques are interesting to estimate temperature time history, presenting coherent estimations.     

Effects of an Exotic Plant Invasion on Native Understory Plants in a Tropical Dry Forest

Abstract: The dry forests of southern India, which are endangered tropical ecosystems and among the world's most important tiger (Panthera tigris) habitats, are extensively invaded by exotic plants. Yet, experimental studies exploring the impacts of these invasions on native plants in these forests are scarce. Consequently, little is known about associated implications for the long‐term conservation of tigers and other biodiversity in these habitats. I studied the impacts of the exotic plant Lantana camara on understory vegetation in a dry‐forest tiger habitat in southern India. I compared the richness, composition, and abundance of tree seedlings, herbs, and shrubs and the abundance of grass among plots in which Lantana was cleared or left standing. These plots were distributed across two blocks—livestock free and livestock grazed. Removal of Lantana had an immediate positive effect on herb–shrub richness in the livestock‐free block, but had no effect on that of tree seedlings in either livestock block. Tree‐seedling and herb–shrub composition differed significantly between Lantana treatment and livestock block, and Lantana removal significantly decreased survival of tree seedlings. Nevertheless, the absence of trees, in any stage between seedling and adult, indicates that Lantana may stall tree regeneration. Lantana removal decreased the abundance of all understory strata, probably because forage plants beneath Lantana are less accessible to herbivores, and plants in Lantana‐free open plots experienced greater herbivory. Reduced access to forage in invaded habitats could negatively affect ungulate populations and ultimately compromise the ability of these forests to sustain prey‐dependent large carnivores. Additional research focused on understanding and mitigating threats posed by exotic plants may be crucial to the long‐term protection of these forests as viable tiger habitats.     

状态空间法在省域主体功能区划中的应用——以湖南省为例

从资源环境承载力、开发密度和发展潜力等系统因素出发,确定了区域主体功能区划的指标体系,提出了基于状态空间理论的省域主体功能区划分的综合方法。以湖南省14个地级市(州)为基本空间单元,运用该方法进行了主体功能区类型划分。结果表明:除依法设立的各类自然保护区散布在各地级市外,属于省级重点开发或优化开发的区域主要分布在东部和中部地区,限制开发区则集中在西部地区。应用状况空间分析方法进行主体功能区划,能较好地反映区域的整体承载状况,为优化区域空间结构与布局,统筹区域可持续发展提供战略决策依据,并为我国主体功能区划提供理论方法参考。     

中国工业SO2排放量动态变化分析

中国工业SO2减排工作的重点。经济增长、经济空间结构变化、技术进步是影响污染物排放量变化的三个重要因素。在分析我国工业SO2排放量、排放结构、排放强度等变化趋势的基础上,通过构建对数平均权重分解模型定量分解经济增长、结构变化、技术进步这3个因素对工业SO2排放量变化的贡献。结果表明：（1）中国工业SO2排放量年均增长48.7×10^4 t,年均增长率为3.2%,且2002—2006年增速加快;（2）分地区看,1991年以来,东部地区SO2排放量所占比重明显下降,中部地区略有上升,而西部地区所占比重增加显著;（3）单位产值工业SO2排放强度在研究期内迅速降低,年均下降幅度为8.4%,对减缓SO2排放量的过快增长起到了积极作用;（4）经济增长平均每年促进SO2排放量增长183.7×10^4 t,技术进步则平均每年使SO2排放量减少134.2×10^4 t,空间结构因素平均每年减少SO2排放量0.8×10^4 t。可以看出,长期以来,虽然我国的技术水平有了一定程度提高,但经济规模的扩张使中国工业SO2排放量持续增长,对中国环境压力形成了巨大压力,同时,经济总量在不同地区的分配对SO2排放量的影响也在不断变化中。     

应对地震灾害山谷型城市空间布局的对策

应对地震灾害时山谷型城市空间布局表现出很大的局限性,而合理完善的城市空间布局对生命财产的安全以及震后救援是相当重要的。依据山谷型城市面对灾害时的空间特点,以生命安全为根本目的,依据系统观从微观空间、中观空间、宏观空间3个层面进行了探讨,提出山谷型城市空间布局一些对策来应对地震灾害。微观空间层面的对策重点在于逃生,中观空间层面的对策重点在于安全转移和避难,宏观空间层面的对策重点在于对外联系。     

基于GIS的崂山区地下空间利用适宜性评价

为了更好地利用青岛崂山区地下空间资源,在全面分析该区地形、地质、水文等条件的基础上,结合岩土工程勘察原始数据和现场水样调查分析报告,根据模糊数学理论和专家经验,遴选出地形地貌、地质构造、工程地质、水文地质、洪水淹没、人口密集程度为评价因子并确定各因子的权重,研究构建了该区地下空间利用评价模型。将评价模型与GIS相结合,利用ArcGIS强大的空间分析功能,采用定量分析的方法得到地下空间利用适宜性分区。研究表明青岛崂山区地下空间建设适宜区面积为106．1km^2,占评价区域面积的73．8％;一般区域面积为26．5km^2,占评价区域面积的18．4％;不适宜区域面积为11．14km^2,占评价区域面积的7．8％。     

DPX快速萃取程序升温大体积进样GC/MS法测定水中19种多溴联苯化合物

建立DPX快速吸附萃取、程序升温(PTV)大体积进样与气相色谱/质谱(GC/MS)联用,SIM模式同时测定水中19种多溴联苯(PBBs)单体的方法。该方法在PBBs质量浓度1~50μg/L范围内线性良好,19种PBBs单体检出限为0.147~0.230μg/L,相对标准偏差为6.61%~10.5%,加标回收率为61.5%~82.6%。