高危行业事故应急科技服务实用性平台研究

针对当前我国高危行业应急平台建设中存在事故应急救援决策支撑弱、应急救援服务能力差的缺陷,以“江苏省高危行业事故应急科技服务平台”项目为背景,提出高危行业事故应急科技服务平台的总体建设架构;并以此为基础提出建立应急信息共享,预案可视化与推演,事故后果分析模拟,应急救援决策支持,应急咨询、培训、评估,事故现场快速监测六大子平台。以期利用VR、GIS、人工智能等先进技术,从功能、系统、体系三个层面完善高危行业事故应急科技服务平台建设内容,从而为政府门提供应急决策支持、为企业和社会公众提供应急科技服务。     

油气储运设施事故的人为因素分析与预防

结合心理学知识从人为因素的角度分析和归纳了油气储运设施事故的原因,提出了应对人为因素负面影响的措施和对策。     

污染事故应急监测的现场组织

随着中国经济的高速发展,各类企业特别是化工企业大量增加,这使得环境污染事故频频发生,污染事故应急监测日益成为各级环境监测部门经肯面对的监测形式。由于污染事故具有突发性和不确定性的特点,因此污染事故应急监测不同于一般的环境监测,对监测指挥者的现场组织能力有很高的要求,正确而迅速的现场组织是及时、准确地完成应急监测的前提。应急监测的现场组织包括现场勘查、监测项目确定、监测点住确定、监测频次确定、监测结果上报等环节。     

造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写中几个重要问题探讨

造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写在整个CDM项目的实施上占有举足轻重的地位,由于造林/再造林CDM项目目前还处于起步阶段,其中的很多问题还亟待解决,这就造成了PDD编写中必然会存在很多不确定的问题。在造林/再造林CDM项目PDD编写整个流程中涉及到最重要的环节的问题则是解决其他问题的关键。在这些关键问题中包括三个非常重要的问题：基线,额外性,泄漏。本文对这三个问题分别进行阐述,并试着提出相应的解决方法予以探讨。     

Simulation analysis of environmental risk accident and management of high-sulfur gas field development in complex terrain

Environmental risk of high sulfur gas field exploitation has become one of the hot spots of environmental management studies. Severe gas H₂S blowout accidents in recent years have shown that poor understanding and estimates of the poisonous gas movement could lead to dangerous evacuation delays. It is important to evaluate the real concentration of H₂S, especially in complex terrain. Traditional experiential models are not valid in the case of rough terrain, especially in low-lying areas where the gas accumulates. This study, using high sulfur content gas field of Sichuan “Pu Guang gas field” as study object and adopting objective diagnosis of wind field of land following coordinate three dimensions, applied Lagrangian Puff Model and breaking up technique of puffs to simulate the H₂S diffusion condition of blowout accidents produced in the high sulfur content gas field of complex terrain area. The results showed that the H₂S distribution did not occur mainly in low wind direction, and due to the obstruction of the mountain’s body, it accumulated in front of mountain on produced turn over, flowed around submitted jumping type distribution. The mountain waist near the hilltop and low hollow river valley site rapture points simulating contrast showed that the higher the rapture point, the better the diffusing condition of pollutant, the distribution of risk sensitive point decided piping rupture environmental risk size combining the H₂S diffusion result and residential area dispersing in the study area, synthetic judge located in the high rapture point environmental risk was smaller than the low hollow point, thus it was suggested to carryout laying of lining build of equal high line of higher terrain. According to simulation results, the environmental risk management measures aimed at putting down adverse effects were worked out.     

Simulating mesoscale transport and diffusion of radioactive noble gases using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model

In order to simulate the impact of mesoscale wind fields and to assess potential capability of atmospheric Lagrangian particle dispersion model (LPDM) as an emergency response model for the decision supports, two different simulations of LPDM with the mesoscale prognostic model MM5 (Mesoscale Model ver. 5) were driven. The first simulation of radioactive noble gas ((85)Kr exponent) emitted during JCO accident occurred from 30 September to 3 October 1999 at Tokai, Japan showed that the first arriving short pulse was found in Tsukuba located at 60km away from the accidental area. However, the released radioactive noble gas was transported back to the origin site about 2 days later due to the mesoscale meteorological wind circulation, enhancing the levels of (85)Kr with the secondary peak in Tsukuba. The second simulation of atmospheric dilution factors (the ratio of concentration to the emission rate, chi/Q), during the underground nuclear test (UNT) performed by North Korea showed that high chi/Q moved to the eastward and extended toward southward in accordance with the mesoscale atmospheric circulations generated by mesoscale prognostic model MM5. In comparison with the measurements, the simulated horizontal distribution patterns of (85)Kr during the JCO are well accord with that of observation in Tsukuba such as the existence of secondary peak which is associated with the mesoscale circulations. However, the simulated level of (85)Kr anomaly was found to be significantly lower than the observations, and some interpretations on these discrepancies were described. Applications of LPDM to two mesoscale emergency response dispersion cases suggest the potential capability of LPDM to be used as a decision support model provided accurate emission rate of accident in case of a large accident.     

火灾频发暴露我国城市公共安全系统脆弱性

为剖析近来我国火灾事故频发的原因,以上海＂11·15＂火灾事故为典型案例,分析了事件灾害过程和行为特征。结果提示：事件过程所暴露的风险管理疏失;安全基础设施薄弱;应急准备欠缺和应急响应能力不足等现象,凸显我国城市公共安全领域的系统脆弱性。系统脆弱性可能是导致＂11·15＂火灾事故发生与成灾的主要原因,作者认为系统脆弱性存在实质是公共安全体系的结构性缺陷。建议应从制度化建设入手,注意克服系统脆弱性,以加强公共安全保障能力,提高社会管理水平。     

基于.NET Framework和Direct3D技术实现危险性液体储罐泄漏过程的三维仿真

由于windows操作系统的大面积使用,使得基于windows操作系统的Direct3D技术在游戏开发和三维仿真方面日益重要,已经成为事实上的3D标准,基于.NET Framework的3D技术的开发也是未来一个趋势,本文研究建立了描述危险性液体储罐泄漏过程的数值模型,基于.NETFramework,运用Direct3D技术开发了动态模拟软件,不仅实现了泄漏过程的三维动态效果,提高仿真的逼真程度,而且可以获取泄漏速率、泄漏量、液面高度和时间的关系。实例分析结果表明,本文所建立的数值模型和仿真方法是可行的,模拟仿真结果为危险性液体储罐泄漏事故后果定量风险评价和事故应急救援提供理论依据和基础数据,也可以应用于科研方面,进一步研究液体储罐泄漏机理,节省研究时人力物力和时间的消耗。     

石化企业平面布局安全设计中事故场景的选择研究

基于安全性能思想的设计方法是石化行业平面布局安全设计的一个重要发展方向,文章对这种设计方法中目前存在的主要不确定因素——事故场景的选择问题进行了研究。对《石油化工企业设计防火规范》等指令性规范中各级别平面布局安全设计的依据进行了统计分析,给出了各级别布局设计中主要的安全考虑和大致的安全间距范围,并对目前安全考虑中存在的模糊性进行了分析,给出了导致其存在的原因主要为＂事故场景考虑不同＂和＂‘相互影响’的含义不同＂;由此,结合事故伤害理论,对石化行业常见的9种19类常见事故场景的后果分析估算,得到了各事故场景对目标设施造成不同程度＂影响＂的范围,并以之为依据,分析给出了各级别布局安全设计中适合考虑的事故场景及适当的安全设计目标。     

石油石化企业环境预警系统研究

通过对石油石化企业环境突发事件风险分析,提出建设环境预警系统的必要性,再对国内外常见的地表水环境预警系统构成、环境质量预测模拟软件以及环境预警决策支持系统进行总结,提出符合石油石化行业污染特征的环境预警系统的基本框架。