管道压力对天然气射流火热辐射灾害的影响

天然气管道时常受到破坏,并诱发巨大的射流火焰,可能引燃周围建构物体。系统地分析了管道压力对天然气射流火热辐射灾害的影响,以建立天然气射流火热辐射灾害的系统定量分析方法。基于压力管道小孔泄漏模型和权重-多点源热辐射计算模型,建立了目标物体最大入射热辐射通量、管道压力和目标物与泄漏小孔水平距离的定量关系式。进而选定10 k W/m~2和31.5 k W/m~2作为城镇建筑物遭受引燃和机械破坏的热辐射通量阈值,得到了不同管道压力下天然气射流火热辐射灾害范围。计算结果表明,GB 50028—2006《城镇燃气设计规范》依据管道压力所规定的燃气管道与建筑物的安全间距不能完全满足天然气管道破坏时射流火焰的安全要求,与某武汉天然气管道射流火事故后果一致。     

Risk factors affecting the severity of traffic accidents at Shanghai river-crossing tunnel

Objective: With increasing traffic volume and urban development, increasing numbers of underground tunnels have been constructed to relieve conflict between strained land and heavy traffic. However, as more long tunnels are constructed, tunnel traffic safety is becoming increasingly serious. Thus, it is necessary to acquire their implications and impacts. This study examined 4,539 traffic accidents that have occurred in 14 Shanghai river-crossing tunnels for the period 2011–2012 and analyze the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Methods: An ordered logit model was developed to examine the correlation between potential factors and accident injury severity.

Results: Results show that increased injury severity is associated with male drivers, drivers aged 65 years or older, accident time from midnight to dawn, weekends, wet road surface, goods vehicles, 3 or more vehicles, 4 or more lanes, middle speed limits (50–79 km/h), zone 3, extra-long tunnels (over 3,000 m), and maximum longitudinal gradient.

Conclusions: This article aims to provide useful information for engineers to develop interventions and countermeasures to improve tunnel safety in China.     

行为科学关于安全控制的研究述评与未来研究展望

从行为科学的视角,探讨人的因素在事故发生过程中的作用,取得了许多重要的进展。笔者从个体因素、群体因素、组织因素以及跨水平的多因素交互作用等4个方面总结了行为科学关于安全控制的相关研究,分析了各种因素对安全绩效的影响。在此基础上,提出一个包含个体、群体和组织因素在内的整合性事故发生路径模型,指出行为科学关于安全控制的未来研究方向,尤其是需要深入揭示一些高阶变量,如领导、组织学习等对安全生产的影响机制,以及采用跨层次的方法来探讨组织因素、群体因素和个体因素在安全生产过程中的交互作用。     

煤矿安全状况随社会经济发展演化规律研究

利用安全效用原理系统地阐述煤矿安全生产投入产出理论,并借助安全经济学知识建立一个国家或地区的煤矿安全状况演化规律的理论模型。从理论上阐明煤矿安全状况演化的本质规律,并运用发达国家的安全生产发展历程的统计数据对该模型进行实证分析,同时通过该模型系统地反映我国现阶段安全生产与经济发展的关系。笔者认为:中央直属煤矿和地方重点煤矿基本上服从演化规律,但仍需要加大安全投入力度,乡镇煤矿近几年有偏离规律曲线的趋势;建议社会经济迅速发展阶段提高安全意识,加大安全投入,积极采取有效措施,把煤矿事故控制在可接受范围之内。     

Human and organizational factors in Chinese hazardous chemical accidents: a case study of the ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion using the HFACS-HC

Human and organizational factors have been proven to be the prime causes of Chinese hazardous chemical accidents (HCAs). A modified version of the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), namely the HFACS-Hazardous Chemicals (HC), was developed to identify the human factors involved in Chinese HCAs. The ‘8.12’ Tianjin Port fire and explosion, the costliest HCA in recent years, was reanalyzed using this framework, and the results were compared with the official accident inquiry report to determine their differences related to the identification of human and organizational factors. The study revealed that interacting human factors from different levels in Ruihai Company led to this catastrophe, and the inquiry report had limitations in the identification of human factors and the guidance for similar accident prevention. This study showed the applicability of the HFACS-HC in HCA analyses as well as the necessity to recommend this approach for future HCA investigations.     

机械制造企业安全事故统计分析与对策研究

本文统计分析了4家机械制造企业11年导致人员死亡和重伤的28起安全事故案例，结果表明这些企业安全事故总体发展趋势和企业业务发展有密切的联系，企业安全事故的事故类型、事故原因和事故岗位分布有非常明显的行业特征；最后根据统计分析结果提出了调研企业在预防安全事故方面需要加强的管理对策和措施。     

基于随机Petri网的平交道口建模及事故率分析

基于公路道口使用者的违规进入及违规人数比例是道口发生事故的主要原因为背景,分析道口使用者违规进入道口前的平均等待时间及违规比例,列车在各个区段的时间特性与道口事故率之间的定量关系。采用随机Petri网基于道口公路使用者、道口铁路列车的经过道口过程、道口安全防护系统功能及三者之间的相关性进行建模及事故率分析。根据模型的仿真表明:当列车由道口传感器区进入接近区的时间和由接近区进入道口的时间由随机值变为固定值时,道口事故率大大降低;公路使用者在违规进入道口前,等待某个时间后进入道口发生事故的风险最大。当列车由接近区进入道口的时间为随机值时,公路使用者的违规比例增加会明显加大事故率。     

化工生产中硫化氢泄漏事故的预防和处置对策

通过发生在昆明市安宁齐天化肥有限公司的硫化氢中毒事故,提出硫化氢泄漏事故的预防措施及相应的处置方法,同时总结经验教训,提出整改措施,以避免类似事故的再次发生.     

集合智能安全帽的建筑工人施工安全行为绩效考核及激励机制

为实时监控现场工人不安全行为，有效降低建筑事故发生率，实现主动的安全与组织管理模式，结合基于智能安全帽的施工人员不安全行为监测与管理系统，构建了工人安全行为绩效考核模型并设计激励机制。通过在温银施工项目的应用，进行了现场工人安全行为绩效的横向与纵向对比。研究结果表明:依据现场行为进行监控和绩效考核能够有效地改善工人的安全行为，有助于形成施工现场的安全生产竞争氛围，有助于建筑工地的安全管理。     

Fatally injured drivers in Norway 2005–2015—Trends in substance use and crash characteristics

Objective: Norway introduced a “Vision Zero” strategy in 2001, using multiple approaches, aiming toward a future in which no one will be killed or seriously injured in road traffic crashes (RTCs). Official statistics show that the number of fatally injured road users has declined substantially from 341 deaths in 2000 to 117 in 2015. In-depth crash investigations of all fatal RTCs started in Norway in 2005. The aim of this study was to investigate whether fatal crash characteristics, vehicle safety features, and prevalence of drugs and/or alcohol among fatally injured drivers and riders has changed during 2005–2015, accompanying the reduction in road fatalities.

Methods: Data on all car/van drivers and motorcycle/moped riders fatally injured in RTCs during 2005–2015 were extracted from Norwegian road traffic crash registries and combined with forensic toxicology data.

Results: The proportion of cars and motorcycles with antilock braking systems and cars with electronic stability control, increased significantly during the study period. The prevalence of nonuse of seat belts/helmets and speeding declined among both fatally injured drivers and riders. In addition, the prevalence of alcohol declined, though no significant change in the total prevalence of other substances was noted.

Conclusion: The observed changes toward more safety installations in cars and motorcycles and lower prevalence of driver-related risk factors like alcohol use, speeding, and nonuse of seat belts/helmets among fatally injured drivers/riders may have contributed to the decrease in road traffic deaths.