基于Hankel-DMD的城市交通事故风险时空预测

为解决城市交通事故风险时空分布预测任务中时空关联性捕捉困难的问题,提出基于动态模态分解(DMD)的城市交通事故分析时空预测模型,模型利用总最小二乘法去除交通事故数据中的噪声,应用结合Hankel矩阵的动态模态分解模型(Hankel-DMD)捕捉交通事故风险的时空关联性,对交通事故风险的时空分布进行预测。研究结果表明：DMD框架能够为高维预测任务提供低秩解决方案,从高维数据中捕捉时空关联性;Hankel-DMD模型在预测评价指标平均绝对误差和均方根误差方面的表现明显优于统计学及机器学习等方法;Hankel-DMD模型产生的动态模态和特征值,对事故风险系统的时空动态特征具有一定的可解释性,同时验证Hankel-DMD模型的适用性。     

穿越城市生活区的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果评估研究

为评估城市天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃事故后果,基于计算流体力学(CFD)方法构建穿越城市区域的天然气管道泄漏连锁爆燃后果预测与评估模型,以某城市生活区域为例,在城市生活区域建筑物内风场流动计算的基础上,模拟风场作用下可燃气体在城市建筑物空间内的运移规律,预测可燃气云的积聚区域;考虑意外点火的情况,计算城市生活区域内可燃气云爆燃灾害特征,预测爆燃超压、热辐射和高温的影响。研究结果表明：由于建筑物之间的阻挡与反射作用,建筑物下风向有明显的低风速区域,并在一定时间段后扩散过程趋于稳定;在爆燃火焰作用下,高温和热辐射会造成建筑物部分钢结构发生失效变形。     

基于锡合金的水下机器人密封自修复系统设计

目的 解决水下机器人推进器密封系统在驱动电机轴高速旋转和高水压情况下,密封件易磨损失效导致发生漏水故障的问题。方法 利用余度设计思想,在原有密封结构的基础上,设计一种基于锡合金的水下机器人密封自修复系统,当原有密封结构失效漏水,密封自修复系统便控制限位锡合金块加热至融化,使锡合金块的限位作用消失,进而释放冗余密封圈,并通过拉簧的作用将冗余密封圈推至密封槽内,从而恢复推进器的密封功能。为验证设计的可靠性,又通过有限元软件ANSYS对密封自修复结构中影响密封性能的关键部件进行静力学分析。结果 关键部件的强度仿真结果均满足设计要求,在密封自修复实验装置箱体内注适量水,并施加2 MPa的水压保持一段时间,密封自修复系统成功启动,且其密封性能传感器未检测到其漏水。结论 密封自修复系统可在漏水的情况下顺利启动,并起到密封的作用,验证了设计的可行性。     

Shelter-in-place risk assessment for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide and its application in emergency management

This paper provides a risk assessment method of sheltering in-place for high-pressure natural gas wells with hydrogen sulphide. In this paper, the shelter-in-place risk is estimated by integrating the health consequences of an individual taking one kind of emergency response to the emergency orders of sheltering in place from the emergency decision makers and the probability of the corresponding emergency response action. The probability of the corresponding emergency response action in the proposed method is estimated through the accident probability analysis and the probability analysis of taking a certain response action. The health consequence estimation is based on air exchange rate test of the shelter buildings as well as accident consequence calculation. The evaluation of shelter-in-place risks based on “as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)” guidelines was employed to provide suggestions for emergency management under both normal conditions and off normal conditions. A case study of risk assessment of sheltering in the local residential houses in Xuanhan County of Sichuan Province, China was taken as an example to illustrate the proposed risk assessment process of shelter-in-place and its application in the decision-making process for emergency management.     

Safety evaluation of different acids in high-density polyethylene container loading

To reduce costs, high-purity chemical suppliers wash and reuse HDPE containers collected from users. To determine the lifetime of a container, the appearance of that container and the manufacturer's recommendations for its lifetime are generally considered. Guidelines for determining the lifetime of an HDPE container have not been clearly defined. The lack of these specifications may result in the leakage of high-purity chemicals in the storage, transportation and use of HDPE containers. To understand the effects of using high-purity chemicals (sulfuric acid (H₂SO₄) and nitric acid (HNO₃)) on HDPE, this study revealed its effects by mechanical and thermal performance tests. According to the mechanical properties test results, the ductility and tensile strength of HDPE soaked H₂SO₄ and HNO₃ decreased. HDPE immersed in HNO₃ exhibited the lowest thermal stability by thermal performance testing. In summary, the degradation of HDPE is affected by storage conditions. For this study, HDPE only needs 60 days of immersion in HNO_3, and its ductility and tensile strength will decline obviously. This study shows that when these containers are used for long-term storage of high purity chemicals, the mechanical properties (including ductility, ductility, and tensile strength) of HDPE containers tend to decrease. To decrease accidental leakage of chemicals due to aging of HDPE, comprehensive and approved regulations should be established for the loading, transport, and storage of HDPE containers.     

Mutual effects between dynamic leakage behavior and the pressure/temperature in a LNG tank with external heat fluxes

The objective of this work is to investigate and model the mutual effects between the dynamic pressure/temperature in the LNG tank and the leakage behavior with external heat fluxes. The results suggest that the pressure and temperature in tank during leakage change with the comparison results between the heat flux consumed in liquid boil-off and the external heat flux supplied. At the liquid leakage stage, when the external heat flux is not very high, the pressure in tank tends to increase significantly, even results in tank explosion. It increases more and more heavily with higher and higher external heat fluxes. At the vapor leakage stage, large amount of vapor spray out, which results in a high generation rate of vapor by the liquid boil-off. The pressure in tank normally decreases to be low, which is unfavorable for the LNG tank explosion. Therefore, at this vapor leakage stage, blocking the leakage hole as soon as possible is not always a right choice for fire fighters. Finally, it is suggested that reducing the heat flux into the tank, either at the liquid leakage stage or in vapor one, is key to the tank safety.     

PDE accident model from a safety information perspective and its application to Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident

Accident models can provide theoretical frameworks for determining the causes and mechanisms of accidents, and thus are theoretical bases for accident analysis and prevention. The role of safety information in accident causation is profound. Thus, safety information is an important and essential perspective for developing accident models. This study presents a new accident model developed from a safety information perspective, called the Prediction—Decision—Execution (PDE) accident model. Because the PDE accident model is an emerging accident model that was proposed in 2018, its analysis logic and viability remain to be discussed. Thus, the main contributions of this study include two aspects: (i) detailed explanation of the analysis logic of the PDE accident model, and (ii) case-study examination of the Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident, a serious accident that occurred in China in 2018, to demonstrate the viability of the PDE accident model. Results show that this is a safety-information-driven accident model that can provide a new and effective methodology for accident analysis and prevention, and safety management.     

我国生产安全事故系统性风险研究——基于ARDL模型*

为探讨我国生产安全事故的宏观影响因素,采用自回归分布滞后（Auto regressive Distributed Lag,ARDL）模型,考察1953—2019年间我国经济增长、产业结构、就业结构以及城镇人口占比等宏观因素对我国生产安全事故的影响。结果表明:生产安全事故与上述宏观因素之间存在长期均衡关系和短期反向调整机制。在长期关系中,第二产业增加值对我国生产安全事故具有正向影响作用,而经济增长、非农业就业人口比重及城镇人口占比的影响显著为负;在短期关系中,经济增长、第三产业增加值、城镇人口占比的上升增加了生产安全事故风险。上述因素具有不同的分布滞后效应,其相互作用叠加形成生产安全事故系统性风险。研究结果可为推进我国安全发展提供理论思路和参考。     

变坡度条件下正丁醇定常流淌火非稳态燃烧行为研究*

为探究流淌火在变坡度地面的蔓延特性,丰富火灾研究理论,推进流淌火预防和风险评估的发展,采用1套自制矩形小尺度油槽系统,研究正丁醇变坡度、变泄漏速率情况下溢油定常流淌火的蔓延特性。结果表明:当泄漏速率相同时,坡度越大,正丁醇的加速过程越明显,当坡度从1°上升到4°,正丁醇扩散速率增大了40.8%;不同坡度下,正丁醇的平均火焰高度随泄漏速率的变化均呈现“上升-下降-稳定”趋势;流淌火蔓延过程中脉动方式分为2种:“跳跃-爬行”和“跳跃-爬行-回缩”;当泄漏速率较小时,流淌火蔓延过程中的脉动频率随油槽坡度的增大而增大,当泄漏速率较大时,脉动频率不再随油槽坡度的改变而发生明显趋势变化。     

Accident consequence calculation of ammonia dispersion in factory area

With the widespread use of ammonia in the process industry, more and more accidents were caused by ammonia leakage and dispersion. The dispersion of ammonia is determined by its physical properties, release source conditions and atmospheric environment. Full-scale numerical simulation based on CFD theory was carried out to study the dispersion law of ammonia in a food factory. It was found that ammonia concentrated on the symmetric plane and showed an upward movement near the source. Moreover, the effect of pressure on the dispersion of ammonia was explored showing that the concentration of ammonia near the source increased with the increase of pressure, while the dispersion of ammonia far from the source is mainly influenced by wind field. Last but not the least, the dangerous area completely covers the obstacle region according to the harmful concentration, but the lethal concentration range and explosion range both only existed near the release source. Correspondingly, the concentration of ammonia in the region far from the symmetric plane can be regarded as a safe area. When the accident happens, one should stay away from the release source and evacuate towards the sides in a timely manner. We hope that this work can provide an effective method in predicting the impact of ammonia dispersion and can arouse concerns over the public safety.