Empirical Bayes calculations of concordance between endpoints in environmental toxicity experiments

Hierarchical models are considered for estimating the probability of agreement between two outcomes or endpoints from an environmental toxicity experiment. Emphasis is placed on generalized regression models, under which the prior mean is related to a linear combination of explanatory variables via a monotone function. This function defines the scale over which the systematic effects are modelled as additive. Specific illustration is provided for the logistic link function. The hierarchical model employs a conjugate beta prior that leads to parametric empirical Bayes estimators of the individual agreement parameters. An example from environmental carcinogenesis illustrates the methods, with motivation derived from estimation of the concordance between two species carcinogenicity outcomes. Based on a large database of carcinogenicity studies, the inter-species concordance is seen to be reasonably informative, i.e. in the range 67–84%. Stratification into pertinent potency-related sub-groups via the logistic model is seen to improve concordance estimation: for environmental stimuli at the extremes of the potency spectrum, concordance can reach well above 90%.     

苯酚的超临界水氧化试验

以自建的一套连续式超临界水氧化装置的温度，压力，溶氧量和流量等参数的可控性进行了实验，并在此基础上进行了苯酚的超临界水氧化研究。结果表明：所建立的装置能比较精确控制各种条件参数，是可靠的超临界水氧化试验研究装置。在氧气过量的条件下，停留时间是影响苯酚在超临界水中氧化分解的主要因素，反应的温度和压力升高导致苯致苯酚去除率的增大，只要有足够的氧气，苯酚起始浓度的增加对苯酚的转化率影响不明显，在实验条件下，溶液中苯酚的去除动力学对苯酚是一级，氧气是零级。     

石灰预处理对树叶堆肥过程中养分转化的影响

以树叶干质量的0%、1.00%、2.50%和4.00%的石灰预处理树叶,24h后分别将预处理后的树叶与鸡粪联合堆肥,研究不同用量石灰预处理树叶对树叶堆肥过程中养分转化的影响。试验在自制的堆肥反应器内进行,采用间歇式强制通风的方式,进行为期59d的堆肥试验。结果表明:石灰预处理树叶24h可以有效的降低树叶中的有机质质量分数,以4.00%的石灰预处理的树叶其有机质降幅达6.00%;石灰预处理24h后,各处理pH相差不大;EC的变化与pH相似;预处理前后,各处理总氮、总磷和总钾的质量分数相差不大。用石灰预处理后的树叶堆肥有利于堆肥有机质的降解,尤以2.50%石灰预处理的效果最好;有利于堆肥w(C)/w(N)的降低,其降低幅度与石灰用量成正比;有利于减少堆肥过程中氮素的损失,且氮素损失与石灰使用量呈反比;有利于堆肥NH4 -N质量分数的降低;提高堆肥终产品NO3--N的质量分数,其质量分数与石灰用量呈正比;有利于堆肥中钾的浓缩;对堆肥的pH、EC、w(NH4 -N)/w(NO3--N)和总磷的影响不大。综合考虑试验结果后认为,以4.00%石灰预处理的效果最为理想。     

聚丙烯酰胺生物降解研究进展

聚丙烯酰胺（PAM）是丙烯酰胺均聚物和各种共聚物的统称，作为一种高技术含量、高附加值的重要化工产品，已广泛应用到工农业生产的各个领域并渗透到人们的日常生活中．过去通常认为聚丙烯酰胺是非常稳定的高分子聚合物，事实上，在自然条件下，聚丙烯酰胺会发生缓慢的物理降解（热、剪切）、化学降解（水解、氧化以及催化氧化）和生物降解，最终生成各种低聚物以及具有神经毒性的剧毒丙烯酰胺单体，对人体造成了极大的间接或直接危害．因此，进行聚丙烯酰胺的降解研究很有意义，而聚丙烯酰胺的生物降解研究领域几乎为空白．参33     

板料冲压成形和回弹分析过程的三维动态模拟

利用ANSYS/LS DYNA非线性动力有限元程序的显式 隐式连续求解功能 ,模拟了板料成形过程与卸载后板料回弹变形的全过程 ,得到了成形过程中任一时刻各处的应力和应变值及卸载后板料的回弹结果     

浅谈一元线性回归在清洁生产审核中的应用

回归分析法是分析相关因素相互关系的一种数理统计方法,这种方法通常应用在预测分析中,如在市场预测时的产品需求预测,而这种方法亦可用于企业清洁生产审核,通过建立一元回归方程,从而表明消耗-生产之间的关系,并更深入地对绩效进行简单的分析,本文就一元线性回归在企业清洁生产审核中的应用进行了简要论述.     

军用S-4烟幕酸雾污染的清除

提出了环保型军事训练的概念，针对大量使用的S-4烟幕的严重污染，构建了基于引射技术利用碳酸钠细粉和直接通过三通阀利用氨水的2种清除方法。通过实验确定，碳酸钠的最佳粒径为150目过筛，不同浓度氨水均有好的清除效果，碳酸钠、氨的最佳用量分别为S-4发烟剂的1．35和0.433倍。     

密度泛函方法预测二英类化合物(PCDD/Fs)的正辛醇/水分配系数

在B3LYP/6-31G水平上全优化计算了多氯代二苯并—对-二英和多氯代二苯并呋喃(PCDD/Fs)系列物的分子结构;基于得到的分子结构描述符,依据修正的线性溶解能理论,分别建立了PCDDs和PCDFs的正辛醇/水分配系数的定量结构-性质关系模型(R2分别为0.985和0.966),并用交叉验证法对模型进行了验证(q2分别为0.983和0.936),用t-检验对各变量进行了检验.检验结果表明,模型的预测能力优于AM1法、单苯环氯取代指数法和拓扑量子方法得出的模型.     

土壤汞的地球化学行为及其污染的防治对策

综述了土壤汞的来源 ,以及汞在土壤中的迁移方式、转化模式和富集行为 ,并介绍了当前几种土壤汞污染的防治对策 ,重点讨论了改进农耕技术、减少人为活动向大气的排汞量、生物修复以及电解法等方法 ,最后对土壤汞的研究方向进行了展望。     

Probabilistic risk assessment for pedestrian–vehicle collision considering uncertainties of pedestrian mobility

Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.

Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.

Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.

Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system.