Nest selection by snow petrels Pagodroma nivea in East Antarctica: Validating predictive habitat selection models at the continental scale

Little is known on the factors controlling distribution and abundance of snow petrels in Antarctica. Studying habitat selection through modeling may provide useful information on the relationships between this species and its environment, especially relevant in a climate change context, where habitat availability may change. Validating the predictive capability of habitat selection models with independent data is a vital step in assessing the performance of such models and their potential for predicting species’ distribution in poorly documented areas.From the results of ground surveys conducted in the Casey region (2002–2003, Wilkes Land, East Antarctica), habitat selection models based on a dataset of 4000 nests were created to predict the nesting distribution of snow petrels as a function of topography and substrate. In this study, the Casey models were tested at Mawson, 3800 km away from Casey. The location and characteristics of approximately 7700 snow petrel nests were collected during ground surveys (Summer 2004–2005). Using GIS, predictive maps of nest distribution were produced for the Mawson region with the models derived from the Casey datasets and predictions were compared to the observed data. Models performance was assessed using classification matrixes and Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Overall correct classification rates for the Casey models varied from 57% to 90%. However, two geomorphologically different sub-regions (coastal islands and inland mountains) were clearly distinguished in terms of habitat selection by Casey model predictions but also by the specific variations in coefficients of terms in new models, derived from the Mawson data sets. Observed variations in the snow petrel aggregations were found to be related to local habitat availability.We discuss the applicability of various types of models (GLM, CT) and investigate the effect of scale on the prediction of snow petrel habitats. While the Casey models created with data collected at the nest scale did not perform well at Mawson due to regional variations in nest micro-characteristics, the predictive performance of models created with data compiled at a coarser scale (habitat units) was satisfactory. Substrate type was the most robust predictor of nest presence between Casey and Mawson. This study demonstrate that it is possible to predict at the large scale the presence of snow petrel nests based on simple predictors such as topography and substrate, which can be obtained from aerial photography. Such methodologies have valuable applications in the management and conservation of this top predator and associated resources and may be applied to other Antarctic, Sub-Antarctic and lower latitudes species and in a variety of habitats.     

木材在线性增长热流下着火的复合判据研究

为探索木材在热流变化时的着火特点并提出着火判据,通过试验研究了木材在线性增长热流条件下的自发着火性能,测定了泡桐、椿木、榆木和刺槐4种木材的点燃时间、木材表面的入射热流以及试样内部的温度.结果表明.当热流增长率大于等于0.199kw/(m~2·s)时,试验的所有木材均可以被点燃,点燃这些木材的临界热流增长率介于0.065～0.103 kw/(m~2·s).建立了木材着火的计算模型,计算得出木材自发着火时的表面温度约为500℃.根据试验和计算的结果提出了-结合表面温度和临界热流增长率的木材自发着火复合判据.     

Loss of Large Predatory Sharks from the Mediterranean Sea

Abstract:  Evidence for severe declines in large predatory fishes is increasing around the world. Because of its long history of intense fishing, the Mediterranean Sea offers a unique perspective on fish population declines over historical timescales. We used a diverse set of records dating back to the early 19th and mid 20th century to reconstruct long-term population trends of large predatory sharks in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We compiled 9 time series of abundance indices from commercial and recreational fishery landings, scientific surveys, and sighting records. Generalized linear models were used to extract instantaneous rates of change from each data set, and a meta-analysis was conducted to compare population trends. Only 5 of the 20 species we considered had sufficient records for analysis. Hammerhead ( Sphyrna spp.), blue ( Prionace glauca ), mackerel ( Isurus oxyrinchus and Lamna nasus ), and thresher sharks ( Alopias vulpinus ) declined between 96 and 99.99% relative to their former abundance. According to World Conservation Union (IUCN) criteria, these species would be considered critically endangered. So far, the lack of quantitative population assessments has impeded shark conservation in the Mediterranean Sea. Our study fills this critical information gap, suggesting that current levels of exploitation put large sharks at risk of extinction in the Mediterranean Sea. Possible ecosystem effects of these losses involve a disruption of top-down control and a release of midlevel consumers.     

发达国家绿色低碳化和数智化协同转型的经验及对我国的启示

在全球和区域环境问题不断凸显的时代,依托科技创新与数智化开展绿色低碳转型已成为全球共同开展的工作。因经济、社会、技术条件和工作基础不一样,发达国家和发展中国家绿色低碳化和数智化协同转型的时机具有差异性,转型方式呈现多样化。党的十八大以来,我国的绿色低碳化和数智化协同转型取得了显著进展,但与发达国家相比,在转型能力、转型支持和立法保障等方面仍存一定差距,有必要借鉴美国、日本、德国等发达国家的立法建设、研发促进、投资激励等经验。本文建议,在新一轮工业化进程中,将政策支持重点放在实体经济和信息化技术的深度融合发展上;在不断推进污染防治的同时,实施支持智慧型可再生能源发展的政策;建立支持性的国家基金或者补贴制度,加强区域协作和产业合作,实施与发达国家和国际组织开放式合作与交流的机制;健全绿色低碳化和数智化领域相关立法和制度。     

Best linear unbiased estimators for the simple linear regression model using ranked set sampling

When sample observations are expensive or difficult to obtain, ranked set sampling is known to be an efficient method for estimating the population mean, and in particular to improve on the sample mean estimator. Using best linear unbiased estimators, this paper considers the simple linear regression model with replicated observations. Use of a form of ranked set sampling is shown to be markedly more efficient for normal data when compared with the traditional simple linear regression estimators.     

关于环境工程数字化转型的思考

通过分析当前数字化转型现状,结合我国装备环境工程数字化过程中存在的问题,阐明了环境工程数字化中“工作活动数字化、环境数字化、环境效应数字化、服务产品数字化”的内涵,分析提出了以环境基础数据、环境数据中台和环境数据服务为核心的环境工程数字化架构及实施思路,论述了温度、振动、腐蚀等典型环境及环境效应的数字化建模方法,并对环境工程数字化在战略筹划、数字化协同设计和数实结合的数字化试验鉴定等方面进行了展望。     

基于响应场的线性规划方法在长江口总量分配计算中的应用

河口区污染源总量分配由于计算的复杂性而受到较多的关注. 以长江口及毗邻海域为例,研究基于响应场的线性规划方法在污染源总量分配计算中的应用. 主要步骤:通过水动力水质模型计算各污染源在单位负荷下的响应场,建立污染源与水质之间的响应关系;构建总量分配计算的优化目标和约束方程,采用线性规划方法,计算污染物环境容量;考虑污染源之间的公平性原则,进行污染源总量分配. 选取有代表性的水文设计条件,完成对COD_Mn,NH₃-N,无机氮和活性磷酸盐的总量分配计算. 在给定的设计水量、水质目标、排污口位置和分配原则等条件下,得到COD_Mn,NH₃-N,无机氮和活性磷酸盐的最大允许入海量分别为200.8×104,16.9×104,22.6×104和1.8×104 t.      

煤矸石资源高值化利用研究进展

当前我国煤矸石存量和排放量大、产量高度集中、高附加值利用占比小,环境影响突出,是大宗固体废弃物综合利用的核心领域,资源化利用前景广阔。现有对煤矸石的处置能力和规模明显不能满足国家对生态环境保护及“双碳”目标下煤炭综合利用的相关要求。通过介绍煤矸石的物理、化学性质,指出了煤矸石在高值化利用中存在的涉及政策、供求、产业化和环境的问题。着重阐述了煤矸石在建筑材料、地质聚合物、化工产品、新型材料、土地复垦等方面的高值化利用现状,并对其未来的应用前景进行了讨论,提出了煤矸石高值化利用的重点研究方向。以期能够实现煤矸石的高质、高值、高效、绿色发展,不断增加煤矸石综合利用产品的附加值,增强煤矸石高值化利用产业核心竞争力。进一步推进煤矸石资源高值化利用效率,对环境质量的改善、经济社会发展的全面绿色转型具有重要意义。     

活性红M-3BE在多级臭氧气浮工艺中的迁移转化特性

针对传统污泥法对印染废水中有机物去除效果有限的问题,利用多级臭氧气浮中试实验系统(DOIF)对活性红M-3BE印染废水进行深度处理,研究不同操作参数对DOIF工艺处理效果的影响,优化DOIF工艺。为进一步确定印染废水中有机物的迁移转化过程,采用紫外可见分光光度计、三维荧光(3D-EEM)和液相色谱等方法进行了分析。结果表明,臭氧气浮氧化脱色效果良好,臭氧投加量、PAC投加量和回流比分别为21 mg?L-1、9 mg?L-1和40%的情况下,废水脱色率和DOC去除率分别达到99.1%和25.2%。臭氧气浮降解活性红M-3BE的工艺中,臭氧催化氧化过程中的矿化起主要作用。其作用机理推测为,首先活性红M-3BE非对称断键为Ⅰ、Ⅱ和Ⅲ,其次Ⅰ分解为2种中间产物,并随后分解为萘和萘酚,Ⅱ分解为均三嗪,Ⅲ分解为苯环。多级臭氧气浮工艺对活性红M-3BE印染废水去除效果明显,为后续臭氧气浮技术工程化应用提供了参考依据。     

人工湿地氮转化对水位变化响应的研究进展

人工湿地氮转化途径主要包括微生物的硝化反硝化作用、植物的吸收和湿地基质的吸附等。水位变化作为水文机制的重要方面,直接或间接的影响人工湿地环境各种形态氮质和量的变化。阐述了人工湿地氮转化机理和影响因子,并从湿地环境植物形态特征及生长发育、理化性质（DO、pH、Eh）和微生物的硝化反硝化强度三方面对水位变化响应的角度总结了国内外的相关研究进展,并提出研究中存在的问题和相关的建议：加强不同水位变化模式（水位变动幅度、水位变动周期）对人工湿地各种形态氮转化影响的研究,通过水位调控改善植物生长策略、提高微生物硝化反硝化强度,实现增强人工湿地脱氮功效的目的。