Comparing environmental influences on coral bleaching across and within species using clustered binomial regression

Differential susceptibility among reef-building coral species can lead to community shifts and loss of diversity as a result of temperature-induced mass bleaching events. We evaluate environmental influences on coral colony bleaching over an 8-year period in the Florida Keys, USA. Clustered binomial regression is used to develop models incorporating taxon-specific responses to the environment in order to identify conditions and species for which bleaching is likely to be severe. By building three separate models incorporating environment, community composition, and taxon-specific responses to environment, we show observed prevalence of bleaching reflects an interaction between community composition and local environmental conditions. Environmental variables, including elevated sea temperature, solar radiation, and reef depth, explained 90% and 78% of variability in colony bleaching across space and time, respectively. The effects of environmental variables were only partially explained (33% of variability) by corresponding differences in community composition. Taxon-specific models indicated individual coral species responded differently to local environmental conditions and had different sensitivities to temperature-induced bleaching. For many coral species, but not all, bleaching was exacerbated by high solar radiation. A 25% reduction in the probability of bleaching in shallow locations for one species may reflect an ability to acclimatize to local conditions. Overall, model results indicate predictions of coral bleaching require knowledge of not just the environmental conditions or community composition, but the responses of individual species to the environment. Model development provides a useful tool for coral reef management by quantifying the influence of the local environment on individual species bleaching sensitivities, identifying susceptible species, and predicting the likelihood of mass bleaching events with changing environmental conditions.     

Prospective spatial prediction of infectious disease: experience of New York State (USA) with West Nile Virus and proposed directions for improved surveillance

Infectious disease surveillance has become an international top priority due to the perceived risk of bioterrorism. This is driving the improvement of real-time geo-spatial surveillance systems for monitoring disease indicators, which is expected to have many benefits beyond detecting a bioterror event. West Nile Virus surveillance in New York State (USA) is highlighted as a working system that uses dead American Crows (Corvus brachyrhynchos) to prospectively indicate viral activity prior to human onset. A cross-disciplinary review is then presented to argue that this system, and infectious disease surveillance in general, can be improved by complementing spatial cluster detection of an outcome variable with predictive “risk mapping” that incorporates spatiotemporal data on the environment, climate and human population through the flexible class of generalized linear mixed models.

Accounting for enforcement costs in the spatial allocation of marine zones

Marine fish stocks are in many cases extracted above sustainable levels, but they may be protected through restricted‐use zoning systems. The effectiveness of these systems typically depends on support from coastal fishing communities. High management costs including those of enforcement may, however, deter fishers from supporting marine management. We incorporated enforcement costs into a spatial optimization model that identified how conservation targets can be met while maximizing fishers’ revenue. Our model identified the optimal allocation of the study area among different zones: no‐take, territorial user rights for fisheries (TURFs), or open access. The analysis demonstrated that enforcing no‐take and TURF zones incurs a cost, but results in higher species abundance by preventing poaching and overfishing. We analyzed how different enforcement scenarios affected fishers’ revenue. Fisher revenue was approximately 50% higher when territorial user rights were enforced than when they were not. The model preferentially allocated area to the enforced‐TURF zone over other zones, demonstrating that the financial benefits of enforcement (derived from higher species abundance) exceeded the costs. These findings were robust to increases in enforcement costs but sensitive to changes in species’ market price. We also found that revenue under the existing zoning regime in the study area was 13–30% lower than under an optimal solution. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for both the benefits and costs of enforcement in marine conservation, particularly when incurred by fishers. Justificación de los Costos de Aplicación en la Asignación Espacial de Zonas Marinas     

沿海滩涂垦殖对土壤氮总转化速率的影响分析

滩涂湿地在吸收、转化和滞留氮、磷等营养元素方面具有重要功能。选取江苏东部沿海典型滩涂区,分别对垦殖时间为0、3、6、17、30、60 a的沿海滩涂进行采样,对相应的土壤氮总转化速率指标进行实验测定。结果表明,滩涂垦殖后,表征氮素活化过程的指标,如总矿化率、总硝化率、净矿化率和净硝化率等有所增加,而有利于氮固持的铵态氮同化率指标无显著变化,硝态氮同化率指标变慢;围垦期限超过30 a后,各氮总转化速率指标渐趋稳定。相关性分析表明,净矿化率、总矿化率、铵态氮同化率、净硝化率、总硝化率与围垦年限呈显著正相关(p<0.01),相关性系数分别为0.966、0.929、0.819、0.800、0.798;硝态氮同化率与围垦年限呈显著负相关(p<0.01),相关性系数为-0.685;除铵态氮外,全氮、硝态氮、pH值、有机碳均与各氮总转化速率指标呈显著相关关系(p<0.01)。滩涂垦殖后土壤理化性质指标的改变带来土壤氮总转化速率的变化,一定程度上破坏了土壤氮生态系统平衡。     

密云水库入库河流微生物群落演替对氮素形态转化的影响

密云水库是北京市重要的地表饮用水源地,但近年来,密云水库库区及入库河流中的总氮（TN）浓度呈现连年上升的趋势.以密云水库上游典型入库河流牤牛河为例,考察各形态氮素变化的空间分布规律,并从微生物群落组成和功能预测的视角,解析氮素形态的转化,以期为密云水库的氮污染治理提供科学依据.结果表明,密云水库上游除TN外,其余水质理化指标均满足我国地表水环境质量标准（GB 3838-2002）的Ⅱ类标准.入库河流TN浓度显著高于库区（P<0.05）,且以NO₃^--N为主,占比为77.7%~92.9%.半城子水库库区的C/N较高,有助于反硝化脱氮的发生,表现出一定自净能力.牤牛河水体和底质中微生物群落结构具有显著差异,呈现一定的空间分布特征,高NO₃^--N浓度是影响微生物群落结构演替的主要环境因子.牤牛河中存在大量硝化和反硝化功能微生物,反硝化菌相对丰度高于硝化菌,且均呈现出底质略高于水体的特点.牤牛河优势硝化菌和反硝化菌分别为Nitrosopumilus和Pseudomonas.PICRUSt2功能预测结果表明,牤牛河微生物氮代谢以NO₃^--N还原模块为主,且主要发生于水体中;硝化过程的功能基因在水体中的丰度最高,主要为narGH;而参与NO₃^--N还原反应的主要功能基因为底质中的异养反硝化菌（DNRA）所携带的nirBD,而反硝化模块的功能基因主要为nirK.     

特种纸行业水污染防治对策——以浙江省为例

以浙江省为例,深入分析特种纸行业发展现状及特点、水污染物排放控制水平和企业在执行国家现有污染物排放标准过程中存在的问题与原因。针对特种纸的特殊性,从完善造纸行业标准体系的角度,提出制定特种纸行业污染物排放标准,确定一厂一策的标准执行体系的建议;从提升产业污染控制水平及产业转型升级角度,提出按规模、分区域、分纸品确定转型重点,研究制定最佳可行技术导则,加快污染治理设施的提升改造,加强企业技改力度及提高清洁生产水平等对策与建议,以促进特种纸行业的可持续发展。     

Speciation of organic phosphorus in a sediment profile of Lake Taihu I: Chemical forms and their transformation

Organic phosphorus(nonreactive P,NRP)is a major component of P in sediments,but information about its chemical forms and dynamic transformation is limited.The chemical forms and dynamic behaviors of NRP in a sediment profile from Lake Taihu,a freshwater and eutrophic lake in China,were investigated.Five forms of NRP in the sediments were extracted based on a chemical fractionation technique,including easily labile NRP(NaHCO3-NRP),reactive metal oxide-bound NRP(HCl-NRP),humic acid-associated NRP(NaOH-NRPHA),fulvic acid-associated NRP(NaOH-NRPFA)and residual NRP(Res-TP).There were notable transformations with increasing sediment depth from the labile NaHCO3-NRP and NaOH-NRP pools to the recalcitrant HCl-NRP and Res-TP pools,which caused the NRP to become increasingly recalcitrant as the early diagenetic processes proceeded.Further analyses showed that the relative changes in contents of organic matter and reactive Fe oxides in the sediment profile triggered a competition for binding NRP fractions and led to the transformation of NRP.The results highlighted the importance of abiotic processes in regulating the diagenesis of organic P and its stability in sediments.     

土壤重金属污染现状调查与评价

土壤重金属通过发生溶解、沉淀、吸附、氧化等物理、化学一系列反应后,最终以多种形态存在于土壤中,在生物体内富集,或转化为毒性更大的甲基化合物。本文调查了部分矿区污染的基本情况和修复效果,提出了矿区重金属复合性污染产生的原因和亟待解决的问题。     

南昌市浅层地下水水质评价及监测指标优化

地下水环境监测过程中保证地下水水质评价代表性的同时尽量优化监测指标数量,对地下水环境管理具有重要的意义.选取南昌市地区2014年和2019年浅层地下水监测数据,运用统计分析、 Piper三线图和熵权水质指数(EWQI)分析水化学特征及水质变化,并耦合逐步多元线性回归分析构建基于水质评价的关键指标优化方法,评估此方法应用的可行性.结果表明,南昌市地下水2014年和2019年水化学类型主要为HCO₃-Ca型;pH值、 NO^-₃、 I^-、 Fe和Mn等5项超标指标是水质变化的主要影响因子;2019年水质状况总体上高于2014年,基本为“中等”水质,二者EWQI平均值分别为53.72和82.34;基于关键指标优化方法构建的最优模型EWQI_min-4能够较好地代表实际的EWQI,关键指标包括Mn、 NO^-₃、 TH、 Fe、 pH值和I^-,其决定系数(R²)和百分比误差(PE)值分别为0.865和10...     

基于多层线性模型的铝合金大气腐蚀规律研究

目的 针对不同地区铝合金大气腐蚀差异性和样本数据利用不充分的问题,构建精度更高的铝合金大气腐蚀模型,研究铝合金在不同环境中的大气腐蚀规律。方法 基于多层线性模型,构建具备层次结构的腐蚀率模型。以某型号铝合金腐蚀数据为研究对象,逐步建立零模型、随机系数回归模型、完整模型探究大气腐蚀规律,并进行预测评估。结果 通过交叉验证进行模型评估,多层线性模型(MSE=0.001 3)优于幂函数回归(MSE=0.005 5),远优于线性回归(MSE=0.031 6),模型预测精度提升。多层线性模型能有效分解总方差,增强了模型的可解释性。结论 多层线性模型有效结合铝合金腐蚀数据区域差异性特征,能表征大气腐蚀规律,具有一定的实用价值。