Bayesian Networks and Adaptive Management of Wildlife Habitat

Abstract: Adaptive management is an iterative process of gathering new knowledge regarding a system's behavior and monitoring the ecological consequences of management actions to improve management decisions. Although the concept originated in the 1970s, it is rarely actively incorporated into ecological restoration. Bayesian networks (BNs) are emerging as efficient ecological decision‐support tools well suited to adaptive management, but examples of their application in this capacity are few. We developed a BN within an adaptive‐management framework that focuses on managing the effects of feral grazing and prescribed burning regimes on avian diversity within woodlands of subtropical eastern Australia. We constructed the BN with baseline data to predict bird abundance as a function of habitat structure, grazing pressure, and prescribed burning. Results of sensitivity analyses suggested that grazing pressure increased the abundance of aggressive honeyeaters, which in turn had a strong negative effect on small passerines. Management interventions to reduce pressure of feral grazing and prescribed burning were then conducted, after which we collected a second set of field data to test the response of small passerines to these measures. We used these data, which incorporated ecological changes that may have resulted from the management interventions, to validate and update the BN. The network predictions of small passerine abundance under the new habitat and management conditions were very accurate. The updated BN concluded the first iteration of adaptive management and will be used in planning the next round of management interventions. The unique belief‐updating feature of BNs provides land managers with the flexibility to predict outcomes and evaluate the effectiveness of management interventions.     

高危行业事故应急科技服务实用性平台研究

针对当前我国高危行业应急平台建设中存在事故应急救援决策支撑弱、应急救援服务能力差的缺陷,以“江苏省高危行业事故应急科技服务平台”项目为背景,提出高危行业事故应急科技服务平台的总体建设架构;并以此为基础提出建立应急信息共享,预案可视化与推演,事故后果分析模拟,应急救援决策支持,应急咨询、培训、评估,事故现场快速监测六大子平台。以期利用VR、GIS、人工智能等先进技术,从功能、系统、体系三个层面完善高危行业事故应急科技服务平台建设内容,从而为政府门提供应急决策支持、为企业和社会公众提供应急科技服务。     

炼油厂设备检修期间污水处理装置运行探讨

针对炼油厂大检修期间污水处理装置正常运行的主要经验进行总结,可为同类装置设备提供参考。     

基于知识的洞庭湖湿地遥感分类方法

湿地遥感影像分类是遥感研究的一大难题。分析洞庭湖不同湿地类型在遥感影像上的光谱曲线规律,利用两个季节的洞庭湖ETM数据,并辅助以物候特征和地面GIS信息,通过遥感软件Erdas Image的专家分类知识库建立决策树分类方法,结合研究区的DEM进行洞庭湖湿地的影像分类,通过专家分类器分层次实现了包括水体、泥沙滩地、防护林滩地、湖草、芦苇滩地和苔草滩地以及其他水体7种湿地类型的分类。相比传统分类方法,专家分类过程以规则为基础,可以同时利用多个条件进行分类,减少了数据处理时间,同时还提高了分类精度,最终得到试验区较为可靠的遥感分类图像。     

Decision support for sustainable manufacturing using decision guidance query language

Sustainability has become a very significant research topic as it impacts many different manufacturing industries. Therefore, the technologies for monitoring, analysing, evaluating and optimising the sustainability performance of manufacturing processes and systems are very critical for decision makers on the shop floor. This paper introduces a decision guidance management system that provides actionable recommendations through quantitative analysis of the sustainability measures of manufacturing processes and systems based on life cycle assessment. The system determines decision preferences through dynamically collected data and decision makers' responses, taking into account the prevailing constraints. Optimal decisions can be derived using mathematical and constraint programming. By using decision guidance query language, this methodology allows users to make optimal decisions without an extensive mathematical or operations research background. Knowledge of relational databases is sufficient for a user to formulate the optimisation problem and obtain optimal solutions. The methodology is demonstrated with a machining operation case study, in which a list of sustainability metrics are identified and sustainability modelling methods are proposed. Important sustainable machining performance measures are optimised, resulting in actionable recommendations.     

A sustainability approach for selecting maintenance strategy

Appropriate maintenance can prolong the life of an asset and prevent costly breakdowns that may result in lost production, failed shipping schedules and a decline in customer satisfaction. The goal of this study was to present a comprehensive framework that utilises sustainability metrics based on social, environmental and economic criteria to select an appropriate maintenance strategy among a variety of maintenance strategy alternatives, such as preventive, failure-based, reliability-centred, condition-based and total productive maintenance strategies, for a manufacturing company. The sustainability-based approach may significantly influence the personnel, energy, material and the overall costs in a company. In the first step of this paper, a sustainability-based decision-making structure is proposed for the maintenance strategy selection problem applying the concept of factor analysis to determine the leading factors in each of the sustainability pillars. In the next step, a fuzzy VIKOR framework is used to select the most appropriate maintenance strategy. The provided approach is illustrated using a manufacturing industry case study.     

A resilience-based approach for comparing expert preferences across two large-scale coastal management programs

This report proposes a method for assessing resilience-building components in coastal social–ecological systems. Using the proposed model, the preferences of experts in Masan Bay (South Korea) and Puget Sound (USA) are compared. A total of 30 management objectives were determined and used to build a hierarchic tree designed using the principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Surveys were performed with 35 Puget Sound experts using face-to-face interviews and with 28 Masan Bay experts by mail. The results demonstrate that the legal objective, which enables legislation, was the highest preferred component in both regions. The knowledge translation variable was also given a high preference score in both regions. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed that the Puget Sound experts significantly favored attention to education, habitat restoration and species protection objectives in comparison to the Masan Bay experts. The Masan Bay experts placed greater emphasis on legislation and the type of institutional design than did the Puget Sound experts. Using cluster analysis, four distinct groups of respondents were independently identified in Puget Sound and three groups were identified in Masan Bay. One unique subgroup in the Puget Sound experts group, which was characterized by its high preferences for habitat restoration and species protection, was not observed in Masan Bay. Demographic variables (length of career and role in coastal issue) failed to account for the differences in groupings and preferences in either region, except for the variable ‘favoring information source’ in the Puget Sound group. This finding implies that the demographic information was not related to differences in group opinions in both regions. The analysis framework presented here was effective in identifying expert preferences regarding the overall structure and emphasis in coastal management programs. Thus, this framework can be applied towards coastal policy development.     

Use of decision analysis interviews to support the sustainable use of the forests in Finnish Upper Lapland

Controversy between alternative uses of forests in Finnish Upper Lapland has been going on for decades, and in recent years it has been escalated to a serious conflict. The core of the conflict is the adverse impacts of forestry on old forests which are important grazing areas for reindeer and which are regarded as intact nature and wilderness areas. This paper describes the experiences of applying multi-criteria decision analysis interview approach on this conflict. The approach provides tools for structuring the problem and preferences of the stakeholders as well as for analyzing the effects of different alternatives in a common framework. We focus on the practical experiences gained from the application of this approach in this context. Multi-criteria decision analysis was found to be a useful approach to evaluate the economic, ecological and cultural aspects of this intense conflict. The obtained experiences also support the view that the approach works best when tightly integrated into the planning process.     

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management.     

化学事故危害后果评估与应急救援的辅助决策系统设计

根据重大城市的化学事故后果评估与应急救援的实际需要出发,提出了研制辅助决策系统任务需求和设计构想,阐述了该系统的系统结构、系统实现的流程和系统功能,并做了可行性分析。系统的模块包括：化学品基础信息模块、化学事故类型划分模块、地理信息系统模块、化学源周围道路交通模块、实时的天气预报模块、数学模型模块、危害后果评估模块、救援方案生成模块、人员疏散撤离方案生成模块、人机交互模块。系统与地理信息系统（G IS）、卫星导航系统（GPS）、遥感成像技术结合后能够实现精确定位、快速评估。将物联网技术与系统结合,还可实现对大型固定化学源远程时时监控,确保在事故发生后第一时间掌握信息,为后果评估和应急救援赢得时间,将化学突发事故的危害降到最低。该系统在信息化条件下,较好地为决策者进行化学事故后果评估,为应急救援决策提供了依据,可大幅度提高应急救援效能。